{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T18:02:52Z","timestamp":1782842572559,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,10,24]],"date-time":"2013-10-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1382572800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003308","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,10,25]],"date-time":"2013-10-25T02:00:29Z","timestamp":1382666429000},"page":"e1003308","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":65,"title":["Natural, Persistent Oscillations in a Spatial Multi-Strain Disease System with Application to Dengue"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Jos\u00e9","family":"Louren\u00e7o","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mario","family":"Recker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,10,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Anderson RM, May RM (1992) Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"334","DOI":"10.1126\/science.275.5298.334","article-title":"Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystems science","volume":"275","author":"SA Levin","year":"1997","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1038\/414716a","article-title":"Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics","volume":"414","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"2001","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"447","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1125237","article-title":"Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza","volume":"312","author":"C Viboud","year":"2006","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"667","DOI":"10.1126\/science.287.5453.667","article-title":"A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics","volume":"287","author":"DJD Earn","year":"2000","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1573","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2003.2410","article-title":"Transients and attractors in epidemics","volume":"270","author":"CT Bauch","year":"2003","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"428","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01509","article-title":"Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution","volume":"422","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"2003","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"912","DOI":"10.1126\/science.280.5365.912","article-title":"Chaos, persistence, and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents","volume":"280","author":"S Gupta","year":"1998","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2879","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3668","article-title":"Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics","volume":"273","author":"K Koelle","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"790","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.96.2.790","article-title":"The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement on the transmission dynamics and persistence of multiple-strain pathogens","volume":"96","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"1999","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11802","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602960103","article-title":"Ecological and immunological determinants of dengue epidemics","volume":"103","author":"HJ Wearing","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2541","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2009.0331","article-title":"Immunological serotype interactions and their effect on the epidemiological pattern of dengue","volume":"276","author":"M Recker","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268804003450","article-title":"The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England &amp; Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection","volume":"133","author":"LJ White","year":"2005","journal-title":"Epi Inf"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19353","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1110507108","article-title":"Modeling rotavirus strain dynamics in developed countries to understand the potential impact of vaccination on genotype distributions","volume":"108","author":"VE Pitzer","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.2307\/2342553","article-title":"Measles periodicity and community size","volume":"120","author":"MS Bartlett","year":"1957","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc A"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevLett.94.218102","article-title":"Predator-Prey Cycles from Resonant Amplification of Demographic Stochasticity","volume":"94","author":"AJ McKane","year":"2005","journal-title":"Physical Review Letters"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2004.10.031","article-title":"Recurrent epidemics in small world networks","volume":"233","author":"J Verdasca","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Theo Bio"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0192","article-title":"Stochastic amplification in epidemics","volume":"4","author":"D Alonso","year":"2007","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1517","DOI":"10.1890\/11-0460.1","article-title":"Demographic stochasticity reduces the synchronizing effect of dispersal in predator-prey metapopulations","volume":"93","author":"J Simonis","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2656.1998.00184.x","article-title":"A dynamic refuge model and population regulation by insect parasitoids","volume":"67","author":"L Lynch","year":"1998","journal-title":"J Anim Ecol"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"513","DOI":"10.1016\/S0966-842X(97)01147-5","article-title":"Modelling the persistence of measles","volume":"5","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"1997","journal-title":"Tr Mic"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1360","DOI":"10.1126\/science.290.5495.1360","article-title":"Coherence and Conservation","volume":"290","author":"DJD Earn","year":"2000","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2002.2305","article-title":"Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure","volume":"270","author":"JM Read","year":"2003","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15259","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0507320102","article-title":"Dynamic effects of antibody-dependent enhancement on the fitness of viruses","volume":"102","author":"DAT Cummings","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proc Nat Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14234","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602768103","article-title":"Cross-protective immunity can account for the alternating epidemic pattern of dengue virus serotypes circulating in Bangkok","volume":"103","author":"B Adams","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proc Nat Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2238","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0709029105","article-title":"Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever","volume":"105","author":"Y Nagao","year":"2008","journal-title":"Proc Nat Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1051\/mmnp:2008070","article-title":"Epidemiology of Dengue Fever: A Model with Temporary Cross-Immunity and Possible Secondary Infection Shows Bifurcations and Chaotic Behaviour in Wide Parameter Regions","volume":"3","author":"M Aguiar","year":"2008","journal-title":"Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena"},{"key":"ref28","article-title":"Circulation of dengue serotypes in five provinces of northern Thailand during 2002\u20132006","volume":"31","author":"P Veeraseatakul","year":"2007","journal-title":"Dengue Bull"},{"key":"ref29","first-page":"237","article-title":"Some demographic and genetic consequences of environmental heterogeneity for biological control","author":"R Levins","year":"1969","journal-title":"Bulletin of the ESA"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-5347(97)01174-9","article-title":"(Meta) population dynamics of infectious diseases","volume":"12","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"1997","journal-title":"Tr Eco & Evo"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1038\/23876","article-title":"Metapopulation dynamics","volume":"396","author":"I Hanski","year":"1998","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2003.68.191","article-title":"Serotypespeci fic dengue virus circulation and dengue disease in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999","volume":"68","author":"A Nisalak","year":"2003","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e6763","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0006763","article-title":"Man bites mosquito: understanding the contribution of human movement to vector-borne disease dynamics","volume":"4","author":"B Adams","year":"2009","journal-title":"PloS ONE"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"354","DOI":"10.1038\/20676","article-title":"Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems","volume":"399","author":"B Blasius","year":"1999","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tpb.2004.08.002","article-title":"The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics","volume":"67","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2005","journal-title":"Theo Pop Bio"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1038\/nature02225","article-title":"Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand","volume":"427","author":"DAT Cummings","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e747","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000747","article-title":"Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability","volume":"4","author":"KTD Thai","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1002064","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1002064","article-title":"Endemic dengue associated with the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages and localized density-dependent transmission","volume":"7","author":"J Raghwani","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Path"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1171","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2004.3020","article-title":"Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics","volume":"272","author":"C Favier","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"601","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007626510002","article-title":"Herd immunity and herd effect: new insights and definitions","volume":"16","author":"TJ John","year":"2000","journal-title":"Euro J Epi"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"725","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2656.2000.00430.x","article-title":"Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence","volume":"69","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2000","journal-title":"J Anim Eco"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9535","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1120621109","article-title":"Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population","volume":"109","author":"H Salje","year":"2012","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"945","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1906.121323","article-title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, southern Vietnam","volume":"19","author":"HQ Cuong","year":"2013","journal-title":"Emerging infectious diseases"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"376","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amc.2007.04.102","article-title":"Scale-free network of a dengue epidemic","volume":"195","author":"E Massad","year":"2008","journal-title":"Applied Mathematics and Computation"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"910","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.77.910","article-title":"Analysis of repeat hospital admissions for dengue to estimate the frequency of third or fourth dengue infections resulting in admissions and dengue hemorrhagic fever, and serotype sequences","volume":"77","author":"RV Gibbons","year":"2007","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1952.1.30","article-title":"Research on dengue during World War II","volume":"1","author":"AB Sabin","year":"1952","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1180","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001180","article-title":"Age-Specificity of Clinical Dengue during Primary and Secondary Infections","volume":"5","author":"KTD Thai","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"757","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1999.0428","article-title":"Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of dengue: insights from age-stratified sero-prevalence surveys","volume":"354","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"1999","journal-title":"Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological sciences"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1988.38.172","article-title":"A prospective study of dengue infections in Bangkok","volume":"38","author":"DS Burke","year":"1988","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2005.01388.x","article-title":"Seroprevalence of dengue antibodies, annual incidence and risk factors among children in southern Vietnam","volume":"10","author":"KTD Thai","year":"2005","journal-title":"Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH"},{"key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1987.36.143","article-title":"Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus","volume":"36","author":"DM Watts","year":"1987","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1993.0011","article-title":"Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics","volume":"251","author":"BM Bolker","year":"1993","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B"},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15504","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1102445108","article-title":"Role of stochastic processes in maintaining discrete strain structure in antigenically diverse pathogen populations","volume":"108","author":"CO Buckee","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1084\/jem.146.1.201","article-title":"Dengue viruses and mononuclear phagocytes. I. Infection enhancement by non-neutralizing antibody","volume":"146","author":"SB Halstead","year":"1977","journal-title":"J Exp Med"},{"key":"ref55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"745","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1185181","article-title":"Cross-reacting antibodies enhance dengue virus infection in humans","volume":"328","author":"W Dejnirattisai","year":"2010","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1309","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001309","article-title":"Kinetics of viremia and NS1 anti-genemia are shaped by immune status and virus serotype in adults with dengue","volume":"5","author":"V Tricou","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"523","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2009.02.003","article-title":"Molecular evolution of dengue viruses: contributions of phylogenetics to understanding the history and epidemiology of the preeminent arboviral disease","volume":"9","author":"SC Weaver","year":"2009","journal-title":"Inf Gen Evol"},{"key":"ref58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e894","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000894","article-title":"Viral and epidemiological determinants of the invasion dynamics of novel dengue genotypes","volume":"4","author":"J Louren\u00e7o","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"989","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2008.0467","article-title":"Incorporating demographic stochasticity into multi-strain epidemic models: application to influenza A","volume":"6","author":"P Minayev","year":"2009","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"ref60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1090727","article-title":"Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens","volume":"303","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"2004","journal-title":"Science (New York, NY)"},{"key":"ref61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7276","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2011.07.017","article-title":"Next generation dengue vaccines: a review of candidates in preclinical development","volume":"29","author":"J Schmitz","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"ref62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1450","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001450","article-title":"Assessing the potential of a candidate dengue vaccine with mathematical modeling","volume":"6","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000168","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000168","article-title":"Multiyear climate variability and dengue-El Nio southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis","volume":"6","author":"MA Johansson","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e12347","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0012347","article-title":"The effects of tertiary and quaternary infections on the epidemiology of dengue","volume":"5","author":"PS Wikramaratna","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"ref65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e617","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000617","article-title":"Serotype-specific differences in the risk of dengue hemorrhagic fever: an analysis of data collected in Bangkok, Thailand from 1994 to 2006","volume":"4","author":"JR Fried","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"ref66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1644","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(07)61687-0","article-title":"Dengue","volume":"370","author":"SB Halstead","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1086\/315215","article-title":"Dengue viremia titer, antibody response pattern, and virus serotype correlate with disease severity","volume":"181","author":"DW Vaughn","year":"2000","journal-title":"The Journal of infectious diseases"},{"key":"ref68","first-page":"623","article-title":"Viraemia in patients with naturally acquired dengue infection","volume":"59","author":"DJ Gubler","year":"1981","journal-title":"Bulletin of the World"},{"key":"ref69","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"539","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2003.68.539","article-title":"Efficiency of dengue serotype 2 virus strains to infect and disseminate in Aedes aegypti","volume":"68","author":"PM Armstrong","year":"2003","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"key":"ref70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2000.62.11","article-title":"Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source reduction efforts","volume":"62","author":"Da Focks","year":"2000","journal-title":"The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene"},{"key":"ref71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1263","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.1986.35.1263","article-title":"Dispersal and other population parameters of Aedes aegypti in an African village and their possible significance in epidemiology of vector-borne diseases","volume":"35","author":"M Trpis","year":"1986","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref72","first-page":"27","article-title":"Population Size, Dispersal, and Longevity of Domestic Aedes aegypti aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) by MarkReleaseRecapture in the Village of Shauri Moyo in Eastern","volume":"32","author":"M Trpis","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of medical"},{"key":"ref73","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5860","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2011.06.042","article-title":"Models of the impact of dengue vaccines: a review of current research and potential approaches","volume":"29","author":"MA Johansson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vaccine"}],"container-title":["PLoS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003308","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,18]],"date-time":"2024-05-18T22:24:40Z","timestamp":1716071080000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003308"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Mercedes","family":"Pascual","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2013,10,24]]},"references-count":73,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,10,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003308","relation":{},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2013,10,24]]}}}