{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]],"date-time":"2026-06-04T14:14:34Z","timestamp":1780582474464,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,30]],"date-time":"2015-04-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1430352000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004187","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,30]],"date-time":"2015-04-30T17:43:15Z","timestamp":1430415795000},"page":"e1004187","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":41,"title":["A Bayesian Ensemble Approach for Epidemiological Projections"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Tom","family":"Lindstr\u00f6m","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Tildesley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Colleen","family":"Webb","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2045","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2010.0387","article-title":"How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks","volume":"366","author":"M Woolhouse","year":"2011","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)60034-8","article-title":"Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis","volume":"379","author":"CJL Murray","year":"2012","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"576","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04503","article-title":"Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles","volume":"439","author":"MC Thomson","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"448","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04795","article-title":"Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic","volume":"442","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref5","article-title":"Foot and Mouth Disease 2001: Lessons to be Learned Inquiry Report","author":"I Anderson","year":"2002"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"136","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01343","article-title":"Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease","volume":"421","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2003","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04324","article-title":"Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK","volume":"440","author":"MJ Tildesley","year":"2006","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3239","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2009.0427","article-title":"The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease","volume":"276","author":"MJ Tildesley","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc R Soc B Biol Sci"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"813","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1065973","article-title":"Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape","volume":"294","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2001","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1155","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1061020","article-title":"The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions","volume":"292","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"2001","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E2694","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1314933111","article-title":"Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus","volume":"111","author":"RC Reiner","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001970","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.1001970","article-title":"Adaptive management and the value of information: learning via intervention in epidemiology","volume":"12","author":"K Shea","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Biol"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mehy.2004.09.029","article-title":"Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: the case of the SARS epidemics","volume":"65","author":"E Massad","year":"2005","journal-title":"Med Hypotheses"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20425","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1208772109","article-title":"Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza","volume":"109","author":"J Shaman","year":"2012","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15124","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0308344101","article-title":"Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world","volume":"101","author":"L Hufnagel","year":"2004","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"681","DOI":"10.1038\/nature02007","article-title":"Planning for smallpox outbreaks","volume":"425","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"2003","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000656","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1000656","article-title":"FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model","volume":"6","author":"DL Chao","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e91724","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0091724","article-title":"The Impact of Movements and Animal Density on Continental Scale Cattle Disease Outbreaks in the United States","volume":"9","author":"M Buhnerkempe","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref19","first-page":"1","article-title":"Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a model comparison study","author":"SE Roche","year":"2014","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"283","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1977.tb01627.x","article-title":"Spatial Contact Models for Ecological and Epidemic Spread","volume":"39","author":"D Mollison","year":"1977","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1038\/280361a0","article-title":"Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I","volume":"280","author":"RM Anderson","year":"1979","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1038\/326137a0","article-title":"Transmission dynamics of HIV infection","volume":"326","author":"R May","year":"1987","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1287","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2011.0625","article-title":"Influence on disease spread dynamics of herd characteristics in a structured livestock industry","volume":"9","author":"T Lindstr\u00f6m","year":"2012","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2053","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2007.2076","article-title":"The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections","volume":"365","author":"C Tebaldi","year":"2007","journal-title":"Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci"},{"key":"ref25","article-title":"The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","year":"2013"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"853","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-85-6-853","article-title":"Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-To-Interannual Prediction (Demeter)","volume":"85","author":"TN Palmer","year":"2004","journal-title":"Bull Am Meteorol Soc"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"248","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1115255","article-title":"Weather forecasting with ensemble methods","volume":"310","author":"T Gneiting","year":"2005","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2303","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-14-2303-2010","article-title":"Performance and reliability of multimodel hydrological ensemble simulations based on seventeen lumped models and a thousand catchments","volume":"14","author":"J a. Vel\u00e1zquez","year":"2010","journal-title":"Hydrol Earth Syst Sci"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"613","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005","article-title":"Ensemble flood forecasting: A review","volume":"375","author":"HL Cloke","year":"2009","journal-title":"J Hydrol"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-9236(02)00143-4","article-title":"Model selection for medical diagnosis decision support systems","volume":"36","author":"P Mangiameli","year":"2004","journal-title":"Decis Support Syst"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"532","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2003.10.013","article-title":"Ensemble strategies for a medical diagnostic decision support system : A breast cancer diagnosis application","volume":"162","author":"D West","year":"2005","journal-title":"Eur J Oper Res"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"742","DOI":"10.1890\/12-0267.1","article-title":"Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources","volume":"23","author":"A G\u00e5rdmark","year":"2013","journal-title":"Ecol Appl"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2681","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2011.0121","article-title":"The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change","volume":"366","author":"L Maiorano","year":"2011","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"issue":"Suppl","key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3681","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1201243109","article-title":"Interdisciplinary approaches to understanding disease emergence: the past, present, and future drivers of Nipah virus emergence","volume":"110","author":"P Daszak","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2011.0255","article-title":"Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe","volume":"9","author":"H Guis","year":"2012","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001157","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001157","article-title":"Ensemble Modeling of the Likely Public Health Impact of a Pre-Erythrocytic Malaria Vaccine","volume":"9","author":"T Smith","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref37","article-title":"Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report","author":"JT Houghton","year":"2001"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2008.03.001","article-title":"Expert elicitation of recharge model probabilities for the Death Valley regional flow system","volume":"354","author":"M Ye","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Hydrol"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3212","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2001)014<3212:APADMA>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"A Probability and Decision-Model Analysis of a Multimodel Ensemble of Climate Change Simulations","volume":"14","author":"J R\u00e4is\u00e4nen","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1177\/0049124104268644","article-title":"Multimodel Inference Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection","volume":"33","author":"KP Burnham","year":"2004","journal-title":"Sociol Methods Res"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"973","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2007.11.008","article-title":"Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to mechanistic models: An example and comparison of methods","volume":"23","author":"JM Gibbons","year":"2008","journal-title":"Environ Model Softw"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2009.05.019","article-title":"A novel approach to real-time risk prediction for emerging infectious diseases: a case study in Avian Influenza H5N1","volume":"91","author":"CP Jewell","year":"2009","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1459","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2008.0006","article-title":"Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic","volume":"275","author":"MJ Tildesley","year":"2008","journal-title":"Proc R Soc B Biol Sci"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"758","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-0813.2005.tb11589.x","article-title":"Modelling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia","volume":"83","author":"MG Garner","year":"2005","journal-title":"Aust Vet J"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2007.05.019","article-title":"The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: a simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions","volume":"82","author":"N Harvey","year":"2007","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2012.08.015","article-title":"InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations","volume":"109","author":"M a Stevenson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1524","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3363.1","article-title":"Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Regional Climate Change : A Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Multimodel Ensembles","volume":"18","author":"C Tebaldi","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1141","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2002)015<1141:COAURA>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Calculation of Average, Uncertainty Range, and Reliability of Regional Climate Changes from AOGCM Simulations via the \u201cReliability Ensemble Averaging\u201d (REA) Method","volume":"15","author":"F Giorgi","year":"2002","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"262","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-6632.2002.tb04390.x","article-title":"Bovine tuberculosis in Michigan wildlife and livestock","volume":"969","author":"SM Schmitt","year":"2002","journal-title":"Ann N Y Acad Sci"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2541","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3604","article-title":"Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology","volume":"273","author":"NC Grassly","year":"2006","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci"},{"key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1191\/0962280206sm454oa","article-title":"Spatio-temporal point processes, partial likelihood, foot and mouth disease","volume":"15","author":"PJ Diggle","year":"2006","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"key":"ref52","first-page":"239","article-title":"Inference For Individual-Level Models Of Infectious Diseases In Large Populations","volume":"20","author":"R Deardon","year":"2010","journal-title":"Stat Sin"},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-5877(00)00166-5","article-title":"Simulated economic consequences of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics and their public control in France","volume":"47","author":"O Mahul","year":"2000","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref54","article-title":"Bayesian Data Analysis","author":"A Gelman","year":"2004"},{"key":"ref55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e53432","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0053432","article-title":"A bayesian approach for modeling cattle movements in the United States: scaling up a partially observed network","volume":"8","author":"T Lindstr\u00f6m","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1007\/s10071-013-0665-4","article-title":"Egg incubation effects generate positive correlations between size, speed and learning ability in young lizards","volume":"17","author":"JJ Amiel","year":"2014","journal-title":"Anim Cogn"},{"key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"680","DOI":"10.1198\/016214505000000105","article-title":"Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions","volume":"100","author":"PH Garthwaite","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"ref58","article-title":"Adaptive Optimal Scaling of Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms Using the Robbins-Monro Process","author":"PH Garthwaite","year":"2014","journal-title":"Commun Stat Theory Methods"},{"key":"ref59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1214\/aoap\/1034625254","article-title":"Weak Convergence and Optimal Scaling of Random Walk Metropolis Algorithms","volume":"7","author":"GO Roberts","year":"1997","journal-title":"Ann Appl Probab"},{"key":"ref60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13452","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1303157110","article-title":"Rapid shifts in dispersal behavior on an expanding range edge","volume":"110","author":"T Lindstr\u00f6m","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"ref61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1198\/jasa.2009.0007","article-title":"Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models","volume":"104","author":"RL Smith","year":"2009","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"ref62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1308","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2000.99415.x","article-title":"Bayesian methods in conservation biology","volume":"14","author":"PR Wade","year":"2000","journal-title":"Conserv Biol"},{"key":"ref63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1080\/00480169.2007.36782","article-title":"A comparison of predictions made by three simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease","volume":"55","author":"C Dub\u00e9","year":"2007","journal-title":"N Z Vet J"},{"key":"ref64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"278","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tvjl.2008.11.011","article-title":"Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease\u2014Model intercomparison","volume":"183","author":"J Gloster","year":"2010","journal-title":"Vet J"},{"key":"ref65","first-page":"527","article-title":"Foot and mouth disease model verification and \u201crelative validation.\u201d","volume":"30","author":"RL Sanson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Rev Sci Tech L`Office Int Des Epizoot"},{"key":"ref66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2012.05.012","article-title":"Vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease I: epidemiological consequences","volume":"107","author":"J a Backer","year":"2012","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref67","unstructured":"DEFRA (2005) D5100\/R3. Cost Benefit Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease Controls."}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004187","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,8]],"date-time":"2024-06-08T18:50:51Z","timestamp":1717872651000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004187"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Sergei L.","family":"Kosakovsky Pond","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,30]]},"references-count":67,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,30]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004187","relation":{},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,4,30]]}}}