{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,28]],"date-time":"2026-03-28T19:11:55Z","timestamp":1774725115144,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,16]],"date-time":"2017-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1510790400000}}],"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,6]],"date-time":"2017-11-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1509926400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["GM100467"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GM100467"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["GM110748"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GM110748"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000066","name":"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ES009089"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ES009089"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000066","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,6]],"date-time":"2017-11-06T13:36:11Z","timestamp":1509975371000},"page":"e1005801","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":43,"title":["Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8349-3151","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Teresa K.","family":"Yamana","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Sasikiran","family":"Kandula","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jeffrey","family":"Shaman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,6]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1669-x","article-title":"Results from the centers for disease control and prevention&apos;s predict the 2013\u20132014 Influenza Season Challenge","volume":"16","author":"M Biggerstaff","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2837","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms3837","article-title":"Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012\u20132013 season","volume":"4","author":"J Shaman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature communications"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e94130","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0094130","article-title":"Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review","volume":"9","author":"JP Chretien","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"8","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004382","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004382","article-title":"Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework","volume":"11","author":"LC Brooks","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1003583","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003583","article-title":"Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics","volume":"10","author":"W Yang","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"issue":"123","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20160410","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2016.0410","article-title":"Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks","volume":"13","author":"TK Yamana","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface"},{"issue":"22","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3834","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2003)016<3834:IOTMST>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Improvement of the multimodel superensemble technique for seasonal forecasts","volume":"16","author":"W Yun","year":"2003","journal-title":"Journal of Climate"},{"issue":"12","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2861","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2001)129<2861:RTMMSF>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Real-time multianalysis-multimodel superensemble forecasts of precipitation using TRMM and SSM\/I products","volume":"129","author":"TN Krishnamurti","year":"2001","journal-title":"Monthly Weather Review"},{"issue":"23","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4196","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2000)013<4196:MEFFWA>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate","volume":"13","author":"TN Krishnamurti","year":"2000","journal-title":"Journal of Climate"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chakraborty P, Khadivi P, Lewis B, Mahendiran A, Chen J, Butler P, et al., editors. Forecasting a moving target: Ensemble models for ILI case count predictions. Proceedings of the 2014 SIAM international conference on data mining; 2014: SIAM.","DOI":"10.1137\/1.9781611973440.30"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ray EL, Reich NG. Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles. arXiv preprint arXiv:170310936. 2017.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910"},{"issue":"7232","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1012","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07634","article-title":"Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data","volume":"457","author":"J Ginsberg","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2723","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1415012112","article-title":"Inference of seasonal and pandemic influenza transmission dynamics","volume":"112","author":"W Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004383","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004383","article-title":"Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong","volume":"11","author":"W Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1005201","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005201","article-title":"Forecasting Influenza Outbreaks in Boroughs and Neighborhoods of New York City","volume":"12","author":"W Yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"issue":"50","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20425","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1208772109","article-title":"Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza","volume":"109","author":"J Shaman","year":"2012","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3243","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0806852106","article-title":"Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality","volume":"106","author":"J Shaman","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1719","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1998)126<1719:ASITEK>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter","volume":"126","author":"G Burgers","year":"1998","journal-title":"Monthly weather review"},{"issue":"12","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2884","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2001)129<2884:AEAKFF>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation","volume":"129","author":"JL Anderson","year":"2001","journal-title":"Monthly weather review"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4186","DOI":"10.1175\/2010MWR3253.1","article-title":"A non-Gaussian ensemble filter update for data assimilation","volume":"138","author":"JL Anderson","year":"2010","journal-title":"Monthly Weather Review"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"174","DOI":"10.1109\/78.978374","article-title":"A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear\/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking","volume":"50","author":"MS Arulampalam","year":"2002","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on signal processing"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2009.00736.x","article-title":"Particle markov chain monte carlo methods","volume":"72","author":"C Andrieu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1155","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR2906.1","article-title":"Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles","volume":"133","author":"AE Raftery","year":"2005","journal-title":"Monthly Weather Review"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,16]],"date-time":"2017-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1510790400000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,5]],"date-time":"2019-10-05T14:10:55Z","timestamp":1570284655000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Justin","family":"Lessler","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,6]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,6]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801","relation":{"new_version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005801","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,6]]}}}