{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,21]],"date-time":"2026-05-21T17:01:05Z","timestamp":1779382865449,"version":"3.53.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,2]],"date-time":"2018-03-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1519948800000}}],"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,20]],"date-time":"2018-02-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1519084800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences (US)","award":["R35GM119582"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R35GM119582"]}]},{"name":"Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (US)","award":["Dl6AP00144"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Dl6AP00144"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,20]],"date-time":"2018-02-20T13:25:13Z","timestamp":1519133113000},"page":"e1005910","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":114,"title":["Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4035-0243","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Evan L.","family":"Ray","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3503-9899","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nicholas G.","family":"Reich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","article-title":"Staying Ahead of the Curve: Modeling and Public Health Decision-Making","year":"2016"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e94130","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0094130","article-title":"Influenza forecasting in human populations: a scoping review","volume":"9","author":"JP Chretien","year":"2014","journal-title":"PloS one"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12226","article-title":"A systematic review of studies on forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks","volume":"8","author":"EO Nsoesie","year":"2014","journal-title":"Influenza and other respiratory viruses"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-016-1669-x","article-title":"Results from the centers for disease control and prevention\u2019s predict the 2013\u20132014 Influenza Season Challenge","volume":"16","author":"M Biggerstaff","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMC Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"50","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20425","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1208772109","article-title":"Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza","volume":"109","author":"J Shaman","year":"2012","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2837","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms3837","article-title":"Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012\u20132013 season","volume":"4","author":"J Shaman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature communications"},{"key":"ref7","article-title":"Improved Discrimination of Influenza Forecast Accuracy Using Consecutive Predictions","volume":"7","author":"J Shaman","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS currents"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1003583","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003583","article-title":"Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics","volume":"10","author":"W Yang","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004383","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004383","article-title":"Forecasting influenza epidemics in Hong Kong","volume":"11","author":"W Yang","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1005201","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005201","article-title":"Forecasting Influenza Outbreaks in Boroughs and Neighborhoods of New York City","volume":"12","author":"W Yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chakraborty P, Khadivi P, Lewis B, Mahendiran A, Chen J, Butler P, et al. Forecasting a moving target: Ensemble models for ILI case count predictions. In: Proceedings of the 2014 SIAM international conference on data mining. SIAM; 2014. p. 262\u2013270.","DOI":"10.1137\/1.9781611973440.30"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004239","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004239","article-title":"Forecasting the 2013\u20132014 influenza season using Wikipedia","volume":"11","author":"KS Hickmann","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"ref13","article-title":"Twitter improves influenza forecasting","author":"MJ Paul","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLOS Currents Outbreaks"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004513","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004513","article-title":"Combining search, social media, and traditional data sources to improve influenza surveillance","volume":"11","author":"M Santillana","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"30","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4908","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7488","article-title":"Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional density estimation","volume":"36","author":"EL Ray","year":"2017","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1109\/MCAS.2006.1688199","article-title":"Ensemble based systems in decision making","volume":"6","author":"R Polikar","year":"2006","journal-title":"IEEE Circuits and systems magazine"},{"key":"ref17","article-title":"The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction","author":"T Hastie","year":"2011"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1016\/S0893-6080(05)80023-1","article-title":"Stacked generalization","volume":"5","author":"DH Wolpert","year":"1992","journal-title":"Neural Networks"},{"issue":"1-2","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007511322260","article-title":"Linearly combining density estimators via stacking","volume":"36","author":"P Smyth","year":"1999","journal-title":"Machine Learning"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.3103\/S1066530707030052","article-title":"Linear and convex aggregation of density estimators","volume":"16","author":"P Rigollet","year":"2007","journal-title":"Mathematical Methods of Statistics"},{"key":"ref21","unstructured":"Ganti R, Gray A. Cake: Convex adaptive kernel density estimation. In: International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics; 2011. p. 498\u2013506."},{"key":"ref22","unstructured":"Rosset S, Segal E. Boosting density estimation. In: NIPS; 2002. p. 641\u2013648."},{"issue":"2","key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007424614876","article-title":"Tracking the best expert","volume":"32","author":"M Herbster","year":"1998","journal-title":"Machine Learning"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2180","DOI":"10.1109\/TIT.2007.896890","article-title":"Dynamic model selection with its applications to novelty detection","volume":"53","author":"K Yamanishi","year":"2007","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Information Theory"},{"key":"ref25","unstructured":"Cortes C, Kuznetsov V, Mohri M. Ensemble Methods for Structured Prediction. In: Proceedings of The 31st International Conference on Machine Learning; 2014. p. 1134\u20131142."},{"key":"ref26","unstructured":"Sill J, Takacs G, Mackey L, Lin D. Feature-Weighted Linear Stacking. arXiv. 2009;."},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jahrer M, T\u00f6scher A, Legenstein R. Combining predictions for accurate recommender systems. In: Proceedings of the 16th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining. ACM; 2010. p. 693\u2013702.","DOI":"10.1145\/1835804.1835893"},{"issue":"123","key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20160410","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2016.0410","article-title":"Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks","volume":"13","author":"TK Yamana","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of The Royal Society Interface"},{"key":"ref29","first-page":"1189","article-title":"Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine","author":"JH Friedman","year":"2001","journal-title":"Annals of statistics"},{"key":"ref30","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Overview of Influenza Surveillance in the United States; 2016. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/weekly\/overview.htm\" xlink:type=\"simple\">https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/weekly\/overview.htm<\/ext-link>."},{"key":"ref31","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Regional baseline values for influenza-like illness; 2016. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/cdcepi\/FluSight-forecasts\/blob\/master\/wILI_Baseline.csv\" xlink:type=\"simple\">https:\/\/github.com\/cdcepi\/FluSight-forecasts\/blob\/master\/wILI_Baseline.csv<\/ext-link>."},{"key":"ref32","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Epidemic Prediction Initiative; 2016. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/predict.phiresearchlab.org\/post\/57f3f440123b0f563ece2576\" xlink:type=\"simple\">https:\/\/predict.phiresearchlab.org\/post\/57f3f440123b0f563ece2576<\/ext-link>."},{"issue":"477","key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1198\/016214506000001437","article-title":"Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation","volume":"102","author":"T Gneiting","year":"2007","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"ref34","article-title":"Density estimation for statistics and data analysis","volume":"vol. 26","author":"BW Silverman","year":"1986"},{"key":"ref35","article-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","year":"2015"},{"key":"ref36","article-title":"Time series analysis: forecasting and control","author":"GE Box","year":"2015"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"C3","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v027.i03","article-title":"Automatic time series forecasting: The forecast package for R","volume":"27","author":"RJ Hyndman","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal Of Statistical Software"},{"key":"ref38","first-page":"259","article-title":"Classification, Clustering, and Data Mining Applications","author":"X Lin","year":"2004"},{"key":"ref39","unstructured":"Chen T, He T, Benesty M. xgboost: Extreme Gradient Boosting; 2016. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=xgboost\" xlink:type=\"simple\">https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=xgboost<\/ext-link>."},{"key":"ref40","unstructured":"Leydold J. rstream: Streams of Random Numbers; 2015. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=rstream\" xlink:type=\"simple\">https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=rstream<\/ext-link>."}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,2]],"date-time":"2018-03-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1519948800000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,11]],"date-time":"2019-10-11T02:23:26Z","timestamp":1570760606000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Cecile","family":"Viboud","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,20]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,20]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910","relation":{"new_version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005910","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,2,20]]}}}