{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T06:16:50Z","timestamp":1772173010240,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009693","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,14]],"date-time":"2022-01-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1642118400000}}],"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,4]],"date-time":"2022-01-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1641254400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Hungarian National Development, Research and Innovation (NKFIH) Fund","award":["2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003"]}]},{"name":"Thematic Excellence Programme","award":["TKP2020-NKA-11"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["TKP2020-NKA-11"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Pandemic management requires reliable and efficient dynamical simulation to predict and control disease spreading. The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is mitigated by several non-pharmaceutical interventions, but it is hard to predict which of these are the most effective for a given population. We developed the computationally effective and scalable, agent-based microsimulation framework\n                    <jats:italic>PanSim<\/jats:italic>\n                    , allowing us to test control measures in multiple infection waves caused by the spread of a new virus variant in a city-sized societal environment using a unified framework fitted to realistic data. We show that vaccination strategies prioritising occupational risk groups minimise the number of infections but allow higher mortality while prioritising vulnerable groups minimises mortality but implies an increased infection rate. We also found that intensive vaccination along with non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially suppress the spread of the virus, while low levels of vaccination, premature reopening may easily revert the epidemic to an uncontrolled state. Our analysis highlights that while vaccination protects the elderly from COVID-19, a large percentage of children will contract the virus, and we also show the benefits and limitations of various quarantine and testing scenarios. The uniquely detailed spatio-temporal resolution of\n                    <jats:italic>PanSim<\/jats:italic>\n                    allows the design and testing of complex, specifically targeted interventions with a large number of agents under dynamically changing conditions.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009693","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,4]],"date-time":"2022-01-04T13:32:32Z","timestamp":1641303152000},"page":"e1009693","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["Microsimulation based quantitative analysis of COVID-19 management strategies"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4385-4204","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Istv\u00e1n Z.","family":"Reguly","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5917-1352","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"D\u00e1vid","family":"Csercsik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1307-7387","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"J\u00e1nos","family":"Juh\u00e1sz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1852-0816","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"K\u00e1lm\u00e1n","family":"Tornai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zs\u00f3fia","family":"Bujt\u00e1r","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3316-1698","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gergely","family":"Horv\u00e1th","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6404-2598","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bence","family":"Ke\u00f6mley-Horv\u00e1th","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5105-4699","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tam\u00e1s","family":"K\u00f3s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6836-1502","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gy\u00f6rgy","family":"Cserey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3637-3979","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Krist\u00f3f","family":"Iv\u00e1n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"S\u00e1ndor","family":"Pongor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4199-6089","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"G\u00e1bor","family":"Szederk\u00e9nyi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9476-3284","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gergely","family":"R\u00f6st","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2919-5601","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Attila","family":"Csik\u00e1sz-Nagy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1009693.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1025","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30361-3","article-title":"Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study","volume":"20","author":"CM Peak","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"pcbi.1009693.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-20742-8","article-title":"Optimal COVID-19 quarantine and testing strategies","volume":"12","author":"CR Wells","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"pcbi.1009693.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"626","DOI":"10.1038\/s41418-020-00720-9","article-title":"COVID-19 vaccines: where we stand and challenges ahead","author":"G Forni","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cell Death and Differentiation. 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