{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]],"date-time":"2026-02-17T12:05:27Z","timestamp":1771329927186,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,16]],"date-time":"2022-02-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1644969600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The dynamics of a spreading disease and individual behavioral changes are entangled processes that have to be addressed together in order to effectively manage an outbreak. Here, we relate individual risk perception to the adoption of a specific set of control measures, as obtained from an extensive large-scale survey performed via Facebook\u2014involving more than 500,000 respondents from 64 countries\u2014showing that there is a \u201cone-to-one\u201d relationship between perceived epidemic risk and compliance with a set of mitigation rules. We then develop a mathematical model for the spreading of a disease\u2014sharing epidemiological features with COVID-19\u2014that explicitly takes into account non-compliant individual behaviors and evaluates the impact of a population fraction of infectious risk-deniers on the epidemic dynamics. Our modeling study grounds on a wide set of structures, including both synthetic and more than 180 real-world contact patterns, to evaluate, in realistic scenarios, how network features typical of human interaction patterns impact the spread of a disease. In both synthetic and real contact patterns we find that epidemic spreading is hindered for decreasing population fractions of risk-denier individuals. From empirical contact patterns we demonstrate that connectivity heterogeneity and group structure significantly affect the peak of hospitalized population: higher modularity and heterogeneity of social contacts are linked to lower peaks at a fixed fraction of risk-denier individuals while, at the same time, such features increase the relative impact on hospitalizations with respect to the case where everyone correctly perceive the risks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009760","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,16]],"date-time":"2022-02-16T18:29:12Z","timestamp":1645036152000},"page":"e1009760","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Individual risk perception and empirical social structures shape the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6147-5374","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Valeria","family":"d\u2019Andrea","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8088-1973","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Riccardo","family":"Gallotti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2034-4033","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nicola","family":"Castaldo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5158-8594","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Manlio","family":"De Domenico","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,16]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6498","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1481","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb8001","article-title":"Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China","volume":"368","author":"J Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science (80-)"},{"issue":"10242","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1973","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)31142-9","article-title":"Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"395","author":"DK Chu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pcbi.1009760.ref003","article-title":"The effectiveness of eight nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in 41 countries","author":"JM Brauner","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"issue":"6500","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb9789","article-title":"Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions","volume":"369","author":"J Dehning","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science (80-)"},{"issue":"5627","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1961","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1086478","article-title":"Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of public health interventions","volume":"300","author":"S Riley","year":"2003","journal-title":"Science (80-)"},{"issue":"5519","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1155","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1061020","article-title":"The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of spread and impact of interventions","volume":"292","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"2001","journal-title":"Science (80-)"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-20324-8","article-title":"Alternating quarantine for sustainable epidemic mitigation","volume":"12","author":"D Meidan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1009760.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2019617118","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2019617118","article-title":"Retrospective analysis of the Italian exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown","volume":"118","author":"V Marziano","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"pcbi.1009760.ref009","article-title":"The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout","author":"N Gozzi","year":"2021","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"pcbi.1009760.ref010","first-page":"eabg6296","article-title":"Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission","author":"Y Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Science (80-)"},{"key":"pcbi.1009760.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gozzi N, Scudeler M, Paolotti D, Baronchelli A, Perra N. 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