{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,18]],"date-time":"2026-01-18T21:31:05Z","timestamp":1768771865854,"version":"3.49.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010002","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,4]],"date-time":"2022-05-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1651622400000}}],"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,22]],"date-time":"2022-04-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1650585600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/N013638\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/N013638\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004440","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["218261\/Z\/19\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["218261\/Z\/19\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004440","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1R01AI147321-01"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1R01AI147321-01"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001713","name":"European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RIA208D-2505B"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RIA208D-2505B"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001713","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF17-7779"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF17-7779"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000269","name":"Economic and Social Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ES\/P008011\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ES\/P008011\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004423","name":"World Health Organization","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2020\/985800-0"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020\/985800-0"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004423","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["TB MAC OPP1135288"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["TB MAC OPP1135288"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We investigated the effects of updating age-specific social contact matrices to match evolving demography on vaccine impact estimates. We used a dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis in India as a case study. We modelled four incremental methods to update contact matrices over time, where each method incorporated its predecessor: fixed contact matrix (M0), preserved contact reciprocity (M1), preserved contact assortativity (M2), and preserved average contacts per individual (M3). We updated the contact matrices of a deterministic compartmental model of tuberculosis transmission, calibrated to epidemiologic data between 2000 and 2019 derived from India. We additionally calibrated the M0, M2, and M3 models to the 2050 TB incidence rate projected by the calibrated M1 model. We stratified age into three groups, children (&lt;15y), adults (\u226515y, &lt;65y), and the elderly (\u226565y), using World Population Prospects demographic data, between which we applied POLYMOD-derived social contact matrices. We simulated an M72-AS01<jats:sub>E<\/jats:sub>-like tuberculosis vaccine delivered from 2027 and estimated the per cent TB incidence rate reduction (IRR) in 2050 under each update method. We found that vaccine impact estimates in all age groups remained relatively stable between the M0\u2013M3 models, irrespective of vaccine-targeting by age group. The maximum difference in impact, observed following adult-targeted vaccination, was 7% in the elderly, in whom we observed IRRs of 19% (uncertainty range 13\u201332), 20% (UR 13\u201331), 22% (UR 14\u201337), and 26% (UR 18\u201338) following M0, M1, M2 and M3 updates, respectively. We found that model-based TB vaccine impact estimates were relatively insensitive to demography-matched contact matrix updates in an India-like demographic and epidemiologic scenario. Current model-based TB vaccine impact estimates may be reasonably robust to the lack of contact matrix updates, but further research is needed to confirm and generalise this finding.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010002","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,22]],"date-time":"2022-04-22T17:35:27Z","timestamp":1650648927000},"page":"e1010002","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Updating age-specific contact structures to match evolving demography in a dynamic mathematical model of tuberculosis vaccination"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7364-1026","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chathika Krishan","family":"Weerasuriya","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2636-1520","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rebecca Claire","family":"Harris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6199-0931","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christopher Finn","family":"McQuaid","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7409-798X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Gabriela B.","family":"Gomez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4410-6635","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Richard G.","family":"White","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E3238","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1720606115","article-title":"Data-driven model for the assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in evolving demographic structures","volume":"115","author":"S Arregui","year":"2018","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e70294","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.70294","article-title":"Social contact patterns and implications for infectious disease transmission\u2014a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact surveys.","volume":"10","author":"A Mousa","year":"2021","journal-title":"eLife"},{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1005697","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005697","article-title":"Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data.","volume":"13","author":"K Prem","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLOS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268817002527","article-title":"Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps","volume":"146","author":"AK Winter","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e74","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050074","article-title":"Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases.","volume":"5","author":"J Mossong","year":"2008","journal-title":"PloS Med."},{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref006","first-page":"20140268","article-title":"Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China","volume":"281","author":"JM Read","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"pcbi.1010002.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0209039","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0209039","article-title":"Who interacts with whom? 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