{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T20:20:24Z","timestamp":1780086024835,"version":"3.54.0"},"reference-count":67,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]],"date-time":"2022-09-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1664496000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000833","name":"Rosetrees Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["A1175"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["A1175"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000833","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012295","name":"NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012295","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"the British Skin Foundation"},{"name":"the British Phototherapy Group"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"NIHR","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["(Senior Investigator Award) NIHR200168"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["(Senior Investigator Award) NIHR200168"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Despite increased understanding about psoriasis pathophysiology, currently there is a lack of predictive computational models. We developed a personalisable ordinary differential equations model of human epidermis and psoriasis that incorporates immune cells and cytokine stimuli to regulate the transition between two stable steady states of clinically healthy (non-lesional) and disease (lesional psoriasis, plaque) skin. In line with experimental data, an immune stimulus initiated transition from healthy skin to psoriasis and apoptosis of immune and epidermal cells induced by UVB phototherapy returned the epidermis back to the healthy state. Notably, our model was able to distinguish disease flares. The flexibility of our model permitted the development of a patient-specific \u201cUVB sensitivity\u201d parameter that reflected subject-specific sensitivity to apoptosis and enabled simulation of individual patients\u2019 clinical response trajectory. In a prospective clinical study of 94 patients, serial individual UVB doses and clinical response (Psoriasis Area Severity Index) values collected over the first three weeks of UVB therapy informed estimation of the \u201cUVB sensitivity\u201d parameter and the prediction of individual patient outcome at the end of phototherapy. An important advance of our model is its potential for direct clinical application through early assessment of response to UVB therapy, and for individualised optimisation of phototherapy regimes to improve clinical outcome. Additionally by incorporating the complex interaction of immune cells and epidermal keratinocytes, our model provides a basis to study and predict outcomes to biologic therapies in psoriasis.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010267","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]],"date-time":"2022-09-30T13:54:42Z","timestamp":1664546082000},"page":"e1010267","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Individualised computational modelling of immune mediated disease onset, flare and clearance in psoriasis"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3848-451X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Fedor","family":"Shmarov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6967-7691","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Graham R.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8705-8867","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sophie C.","family":"Weatherhead","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6484-825X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nick J.","family":"Reynolds","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6033-5919","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Paolo","family":"Zuliani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010267.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1271","DOI":"10.1084\/jem.178.4.1271","article-title":"Flow cytometric identification of proliferative subpopulations within normal human epidermis and the localization of the primary hyperproliferative population in psoriasis","volume":"178","author":"Z Bata-Csorgo","year":"1993","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Medicine"},{"issue":"9997","key":"pcbi.1010267.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"983","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)61909-7","article-title":"Psoriasis","volume":"386","author":"WH Boehncke","year":"2015","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"pcbi.1010267.ref003","unstructured":"Organization WH. 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