{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,11]],"date-time":"2026-04-11T08:33:35Z","timestamp":1775896415249,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,23]],"date-time":"2023-06-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1687478400000}}],"reference-count":79,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,12]],"date-time":"2023-06-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1686528000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01 AI163398"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01 AI163398"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01 AI163398"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01 AI163398"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01 AI163398"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01 AI163398"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01 AI163398"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01 AI163398"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2U19AI089674"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2U19AI089674"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV 030600"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV 030600"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV 030600"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV 030600"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV 030600"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV 030600"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100020427","name":"Directorate for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NSF 2040688"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NSF 2040688"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100020427","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100020427","name":"Directorate for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NSF 2040688"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NSF 2040688"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100020427","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/V031112\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/V031112\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum<\/jats:italic>\n                    malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework\u2014human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats\u2014interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the \u201cvectorial capacity matrix,\u201d a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An\n                    <jats:inline-formula id=\"pcbi.1010684.e001\">\n                      <jats:alternatives>\n                        <jats:graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" id=\"pcbi.1010684.e001g\" mimetype=\"image\" position=\"anchor\" xlink:href=\"info:doi\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684.e001\" xlink:type=\"simple\"\/>\n                        <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" id=\"M1\">\n                          <mml:mtext mathvariant=\"bold-sans-serif\">R<\/mml:mtext>\n                        <\/mml:math>\n                      <\/jats:alternatives>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,12]],"date-time":"2023-06-12T13:35:27Z","timestamp":1686576927000},"page":"e1010684","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Sean L.","family":"Wu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"John M.","family":"Henry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1282-4176","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Daniel T.","family":"Citron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Doreen","family":"Mbabazi Ssebuliba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juliet","family":"Nakakawa Nsumba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"H\u00e9ctor M.","family":"S\u00e1nchez C.","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3235-2129","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Oliver J.","family":"Brady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carlos A.","family":"Guerra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4430-4781","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Guillermo A.","family":"Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Austin R.","family":"Carter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Heather M.","family":"Ferguson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bakare Emmanuel","family":"Afolabi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0611-7272","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Simon I.","family":"Hay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Robert C.","family":"Reiner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samson","family":"Kiware","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4367-3849","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"David L.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,12]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1002588","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1002588","article-title":"Ross, Macdonald, and a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens","volume":"8","author":"DL Smith","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Pathog"},{"issue":"81","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20120921","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2012.0921","article-title":"A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010","volume":"10","author":"RC Reiner","year":"2013","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/tru026","article-title":"Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control","volume":"108","author":"DL Smith","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref004","unstructured":"Levin S. The Problem of Relevant Detail. In: Busenberg S, Martelli M, editors. Differential Equations Models in Biology, Epidemiology and Ecology: Proceedings of a Conference held in Claremont California, January 13\u201316, 1990. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg; 1991. p. 9\u201315."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"703","DOI":"10.2307\/3212374","article-title":"The initial geographical spread of host-vector and carrier-borne epidemics","volume":"10","author":"J Radcliffe","year":"1973","journal-title":"J Appl Probab"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref006","volume-title":"The Biomathematics of Malaria","author":"NTJ Bailey","year":"1982"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(86)90199-9","article-title":"Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: effects of flies which bite some people more frequently than others","volume":"80","author":"C Dye","year":"1986","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-5809(88)90003-2","article-title":"Population dynamics of mosquito-borne disease: persistence in a completely heterogeneous environment","volume":"33","author":"G Hasibeder","year":"1988","journal-title":"Theor Popul Biol"},{"issue":"1-2","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(94)00068-B","article-title":"A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions","volume":"128","author":"L Sattenspiel","year":"1995","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"issue":"2-3","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(97)00135-X","article-title":"Models of spatio-temporal dynamics in malaria","volume":"104","author":"L Torres-Sorando","year":"1997","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"232","DOI":"10.1007\/s002850000048","article-title":"Local stability analysis of spatially homogeneous solutions of multi-patch systems","volume":"41","author":"VA Jansen","year":"2000","journal-title":"J Math Biol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2008.08.010","article-title":"The Ross\u2013Macdonald model in a patchy environment","volume":"216","author":"P Auger","year":"2008","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e6763","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0006763","article-title":"Man bites mosquito: understanding the contribution of human movement to vector-borne disease dynamics","volume":"4","author":"B Adams","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"550","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2009.02.016","article-title":"The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases","volume":"258","author":"C Cosner","year":"2009","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"819","DOI":"10.1137\/110850761","article-title":"A multi-patch malaria model with logistic growth populations","volume":"72","author":"D Gao","year":"2012","journal-title":"SIAM J Appl Math"},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1003327","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003327","article-title":"Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission","volume":"9","author":"TA Perkins","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004846","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004846","article-title":"Identifying Malaria Transmission Foci for Elimination Using Human Mobility Data","volume":"12","author":"NW Ruktanonchai","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"18","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2007488118","article-title":"Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement","volume":"118","author":"DT Citron","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"440","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-019-3078-2","article-title":"Characterising malaria connectivity using malaria indicator survey data","volume":"18","author":"CA Guerra","year":"2019","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"299","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-018-2442-y","article-title":"Agent-based models of malaria transmission: A systematic review","volume":"17","author":"NR Smith","year":"2018","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e149","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(18)30757-6","article-title":"Venezuela\u2019s humanitarian crisis, resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and implications for spillover in the region","volume":"19","author":"ME Grillet","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"834","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2504.181355","article-title":"Effects of political instability in Venezuela on malaria resurgence at Ecuador-Peru border, 2018","volume":"25","author":"R Jaramillo-Ochoa","year":"2019","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-11-122","article-title":"Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes","volume":"11","author":"JM Cohen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"7439","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"545","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.37977.653750.EE","article-title":"Sustained clinical efficacy of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Malawi after 10 years as first line treatment: five year prospective study","volume":"328","author":"CV Plowe","year":"2004","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"9","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0000676","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0000676","article-title":"Resurgence of malaria in Uganda despite sustained indoor residual spraying and repeated long lasting insecticidal net distributions","volume":"2","author":"A Epstein","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLOS Global Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a117124","article-title":"The natural disappearance of malaria in certain regions of Europe","volume":"13","author":"LW Hackett","year":"1931","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref027","volume-title":"An Ecological Study","author":"LW Hackett","year":"1937"},{"issue":"2-3","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e02130","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.02130","article-title":"A micro-epidemiological analysis of febrile malaria in Coastal Kenya showing hotspots within hotspots","volume":"3","author":"P Bejon","year":"2014","journal-title":"Elife"},{"issue":"2188","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"466","DOI":"10.1038\/087466a0","article-title":"Some quantitative studies in epidemiology","volume":"87","author":"R Ross","year":"1911","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"9","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref030","first-page":"813","article-title":"The analysis of equilibrium in malaria","volume":"49","author":"G Macdonald","year":"1952","journal-title":"Trop Dis Bull"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e71247","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0071247","article-title":"Mosquito population regulation and larval source management in heterogeneous environments","volume":"8","author":"DL Smith","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1093\/inthealth\/ihv010","article-title":"Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission","volume":"7","author":"OJ Brady","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.1016\/S0035-9203(01)90005-7","article-title":"The availability of potential hosts as a determinant of feeding behaviours and malaria transmission by African mosquito populations","volume":"95","author":"GF Killeen","year":"2001","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref034","first-page":"1111","article-title":"The role of resource availability and state-dependence in the foraging strategy of blood-feeding mosquitoes","volume":"10","author":"BO Ma","year":"2008","journal-title":"Evol Ecol Res"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-016-1762-4","article-title":"How do biting disease vectors behaviourally respond to host availability?","volume":"9","author":"L Yakob","year":"2016","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"397","DOI":"10.1093\/aesa\/saab011","article-title":"Human-mosquito contact: A missing link in our understanding of mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics","volume":"114","author":"P Thongsripong","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ann Entomol Soc Am"},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"579","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/34.6.579","article-title":"Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) dispersal\u2013the long and short of it","volume":"34","author":"M W Service","year":"1997","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"issue":"11","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e368","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.0020368","article-title":"The risk of a mosquito-borne infection in a heterogeneous environment","volume":"2","author":"DL Smith","year":"2004","journal-title":"PLoS Biol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1007446","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1007446","article-title":"Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology","volume":"16","author":"SL Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trv113","article-title":"Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination","volume":"110","author":"OJ Brady","year":"2016","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms1107","article-title":"A quantitative analysis of transmission efficiency versus intensity for malaria","volume":"1","author":"DL Smith","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1038\/srep00093","article-title":"Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar","volume":"1","author":"A Le Menach","year":"2011","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref043","unstructured":"R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing; 2022."},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Soetaert K, Petzoldt T, Setzer RW. Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve; 2010.","DOI":"10.1063\/1.3498463"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-021-03893-x","article-title":"Quantifying malaria acquired during travel and its role in malaria elimination on Bioko Island","volume":"20","author":"DT Citron","year":"2021","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref046","article-title":"Daily rhythms in mosquitoes and their consequences for malaria transmission","volume":"7","author":"SSC Rund","year":"2016","journal-title":"Insects"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-020-03271-z","article-title":"Methods and indicators for measuring patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors","volume":"19","author":"A Monroe","year":"2020","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref048","first-page":"1","article-title":"Patterns of human exposure to malaria vectors in Zanzibar and implications for malaria elimination efforts","volume":"19","author":"A Monroe","year":"2020","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-2901-3_5","volume-title":"The Population Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Applications","author":"JL Aron","year":"1982"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-4-23","article-title":"The unexpected importance of mosquito oviposition behaviour for malaria: Non-productive larval habitats can be sources for malaria transmission","volume":"4","author":"A Le Menach","year":"2005","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-01609-1","volume-title":"Hybrid Models of Tropical Infections. vol. 59 of Lecture Notes in Biomathematics","author":"I N\u00e5sell","year":"1985","edition":"1"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1003025","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003025","article-title":"Malaria\u2019s missing number: calculating the human component of R0 by a within-host mechanistic model of Plasmodium falciparum infection and transmission","volume":"9","author":"GL Johnston","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2332","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-10339-1","article-title":"Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island","volume":"10","author":"CA Guerra","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"192","DOI":"10.2307\/3212311","article-title":"On quasi-stationary distributions in absorbing continuous-time finite Markov chains","volume":"4","author":"JN Darroch","year":"1967","journal-title":"J Appl Probab"},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1009030","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009030","article-title":"MGDrivE 2: A simulation framework for gene drive systems incorporating seasonality and epidemiological dynamics","volume":"17","author":"SL Wu","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref056","first-page":"569","article-title":"The analysis of the sporozoite rate","volume":"49","author":"G Macdonald","year":"1952","journal-title":"Trop Dis Bull"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-3-13","article-title":"Statics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes","volume":"3","author":"DL Smith","year":"2004","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1173","DOI":"10.1038\/2041173a0","article-title":"Prognosis for interruption of malaria transmission through assessment of the mosquito\u2019s vectorial capacity","volume":"204","author":"C Garrett-Jones","year":"1964","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2020.10.011","article-title":"A New Test of a Theory about Old Mosquitoes","volume":"37","author":"DL Smith","year":"2021","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"issue":"1-2","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00108-6","article-title":"Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission","volume":"180","author":"P van den Driessche","year":"2002","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"365","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00178324","article-title":"On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations","volume":"28","author":"O Diekmann","year":"1990","journal-title":"J Math Biol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"283","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-019-2920-x","article-title":"Mapping and enumerating houses and households to support malaria control interventions on Bioko Island","volume":"18","author":"GA Garc\u00eda","year":"2019","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref063","first-page":"1401","article-title":"Spatial targeting of interventions against malaria","volume":"78","author":"R Carter","year":"2000","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001165","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001165","article-title":"Hitting hotspots: spatial targeting of malaria for control and elimination","volume":"9","author":"T Bousema","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001467","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001467","article-title":"Targeting asymptomatic malaria infections: active surveillance in control and elimination","volume":"10","author":"HJW Sturrock","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"111","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref066","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20150478","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2015.0478","article-title":"Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape","volume":"12","author":"RC Reiner","year":"2015","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref067","first-page":"2569","article-title":"Determination of the processes driving the acquisition of immunity to malaria using a mathematical transmission model","volume":"3","author":"JAN Filipe","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref068","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000324","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000324","article-title":"Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies","volume":"7","author":"JT Griffin","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref069","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3136","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms4136","article-title":"Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa","volume":"5","author":"JT Griffin","year":"2014","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-10-303","article-title":"A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology","volume":"10","author":"PA Eckhoff","year":"2011","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref071","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-11-419","article-title":"Malaria parasite diversity and transmission intensity affect development of parasitological immunity in a mathematical model","volume":"11","author":"PA Eckhoff","year":"2012","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"9","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref072","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e44950","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0044950","article-title":"P. falciparum infection durations and infectiousness are shaped by antigenic variation and innate and adaptive host immunity in a mathematical model","volume":"7","author":"P Eckhoff","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref073","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-12-126","article-title":"A mathematical model of the impact of present and future malaria vaccines","volume":"12","author":"EA Wenger","year":"2013","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref074","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/femspd\/fty059","article-title":"Implementation and applications of EMOD, an individual-based multi-disease modeling platform","volume":"76","author":"A Bershteyn","year":"2018","journal-title":"Pathog Dis"},{"key":"pcbi.1010684.ref075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-308","article-title":"Agent-based modeling of malaria vectors: the importance of spatial simulation","volume":"7","author":"A Bomblies","year":"2014","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"2 Suppl","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref076","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2006.75.2_suppl.0750001","article-title":"Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: Overview","volume":"75","author":"TA Smith","year":"2006","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"13","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref077","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1507","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182008000371","article-title":"Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control","volume":"135","author":"TA Smith","year":"2008","journal-title":"Parasitology"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref078","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001157","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001157","article-title":"Ensemble modeling of the likely public health impact of a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine","volume":"9","author":"TA Smith","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"18","key":"pcbi.1010684.ref079","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2207537120","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2207537120","article-title":"Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty","volume":"120","author":"K Shea","year":"2023","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,23]],"date-time":"2023-06-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1687478400000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,24]],"date-time":"2023-06-24T19:34:36Z","timestamp":1687635276000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"James M","family":"McCaw","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,12]]},"references-count":79,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,12]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010684","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2022.11.07.22282044","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,12]]}}}