{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,18]],"date-time":"2026-04-18T14:26:11Z","timestamp":1776522371077,"version":"3.51.2"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010767","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,19]],"date-time":"2022-12-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1671408000000}}],"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,7]],"date-time":"2022-12-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1670371200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004785","name":"NordForsk","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["105572"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["105572"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004785","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing","award":["2018-05973"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2018-05973"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data is essential in obtaining situational awareness about the current dynamics of a major public health event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis of e.g., time-series of reported cases or fatalities is complicated by reporting delays that lead to under-reporting of the complete number of events for the most recent time points. This can lead to misconceptions by the interpreter, for instance the media or the public, as was the case with the time-series of reported fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. Nowcasting methods provide real-time estimates of the complete number of events using the incomplete time-series of currently reported events and information about the reporting delays from the past. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian nowcasting approach applied to COVID-19-related fatalities in Sweden. We incorporate additional information in the form of time-series of number of reported cases and ICU admissions as leading signals. We demonstrate with a retrospective evaluation that the inclusion of ICU admissions as a leading signal improved the nowcasting performance of case fatalities for COVID-19 in Sweden compared to existing methods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010767","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,7]],"date-time":"2022-12-07T18:47:15Z","timestamp":1670438835000},"page":"e1010767","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Bayesian nowcasting with leading indicators applied to COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0693-3851","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Fanny","family":"Bergstr\u00f6m","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Felix","family":"G\u00fcnther","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0423-6702","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Michael","family":"H\u00f6hle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Tom","family":"Britton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,7]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6502","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abd1668","article-title":"Mathematical models to guide pandemic response: Models can be used to learn from the past and prepare for the future","volume":"369","author":"C Metcalf","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref002","first-page":"38816","article-title":"Nowcasting epidemics of novel pathogens: lessons from COVID-19","volume":"27","author":"JT Wu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Med"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref003","unstructured":"Folkh\u00e4lsomyndigheten. The Public Health Agency of Sweden\u2019s COVID-19 data portal; Accessed 2022-03-07. https:\/\/www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se\/smittskydd-beredskap\/utbrott\/aktuella-utbrott\/covid-19\/statistik-och-analyser\/."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-011-9566-5","article-title":"Nowcasting pandemic influenza A\/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands","volume":"26","author":"T Donker","year":"2011","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"993","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12194","article-title":"Bayesian nowcasting during the STEC 0104:H4 outbreak in Germany, 2011","volume":"70","author":"M H\u00f6hle","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1007735","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1007735","article-title":"Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing: A flexible, generalizable model for real-time epidemic tracking","volume":"16","author":"SF McGough","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLOS Comp Bio"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref007","first-page":"151","article-title":"Prediction of IBNR claim counts by modelling the distribution of report lags","volume":"6","author":"KS Kaminsky","year":"1987","journal-title":"Insurance: Mathematics and Economics"},{"issue":"406","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"360","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1989.10478780","article-title":"Inference based on retrospective ascertainment: an analysis of the data on transfusion-related AIDS","volume":"84","author":"J Kalbfleisch","year":"1989","journal-title":"JASA"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080104","article-title":"Statistical methods for monitoring the AIDS epidemic","volume":"8","author":"SL Zeger","year":"1989","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.2307\/3315826.n1","article-title":"Adjustments for reporting delays and the prediction of occurred but not reported events","volume":"22","author":"JF Lawless","year":"1994","journal-title":"Can J Stat"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.2196\/25538","article-title":"Nowcasting for real-time COVID-19 tracking in New York City: Evaluation study using reportable disease data from the early stages of the pandemic","volume":"7","author":"S Greene","year":"2021","journal-title":"JMIR Public Health and Surveillance"},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref012","first-page":"1","article-title":"Bayesian back-calculation and nowcasting for line list data during the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"17","author":"T Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLOS Comp Bio"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref013","first-page":"1","article-title":"Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region","author":"SR Seaman","year":"2022","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Series C"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1010767.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.202000143","article-title":"Nowcasting fatal COVID-19 infections on a regional level in Germany","volume":"63","author":"M Schneble","year":"2020","journal-title":"Biom J"},{"key":"pcbi.1010767.ref015","unstructured":"Altmejd A, Rockl\u00f6v J, Wallin J. 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