{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,17]],"date-time":"2026-03-17T05:36:30Z","timestamp":1773725790959,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1011463","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,28]],"date-time":"2023-09-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1695859200000}}],"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,18]],"date-time":"2023-09-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1694995200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["210758\/Z\/18\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["210758\/Z\/18\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>In May 2022, a cluster of mpox cases were detected in the UK that could not be traced to recent travel history from an endemic region. Over the coming months, the outbreak grew, with over 3000 total cases reported in the UK, and similar outbreaks occurring worldwide. These outbreaks appeared linked to sexual contact networks between gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, local health systems were strained, and therefore effective surveillance for mpox was essential for managing public health policy. However, the mpox outbreak in the UK was characterised by substantial delays in the reporting of the symptom onset date and specimen collection date for confirmed positive cases. These delays led to substantial backfilling in the epidemic curve, making it challenging to interpret the epidemic trajectory in real-time. Many nowcasting models exist to tackle this challenge in epidemiological data, but these lacked sufficient flexibility. We have developed a nowcasting model using generalised additive models that makes novel use of individual-level patient data to correct the mpox epidemic curve in England. The aim of this model is to correct for backfilling in the epidemic curve and provide real-time characteristics of the state of the epidemic, including the real-time growth rate. This model benefited from close collaboration with individuals involved in collecting and processing the data, enabling temporal changes in the reporting structure to be built into the model, which improved the robustness of the nowcasts generated. The resulting model accurately captured the true shape of the epidemic curve in real time.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1011463","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,18]],"date-time":"2023-09-18T17:30:12Z","timestamp":1695058212000},"page":"e1011463","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8433-4010","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christopher E.","family":"Overton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sam","family":"Abbott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rachel","family":"Christie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fergus","family":"Cumming","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1035-2117","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Julie","family":"Day","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8410-9585","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Owen","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rob","family":"Paton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Charlie","family":"Turner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Thomas","family":"Ward","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1011463.ref001","article-title":"Multi-country monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic countries [Internet].","author":"WHO","year":"2022"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1011463.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"156","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1699-0463.1959.tb00328.x","article-title":"A Pox-Like Disease in Cynomolgus Monkeys.","volume":"46","author":"P von Magnus","year":"1959","journal-title":"Acta Pathol Microbiol Scand"},{"key":"pcbi.1011463.ref003","article-title":"Monkeypox [Internet].","author":"WHO","year":"2022"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1011463.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/cit703","article-title":"Human Monkeypox","volume":"58","author":"AM McCollum","year":"2014","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"pcbi.1011463.ref005","article-title":"WHO Director-General declares the ongoing monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern [Internet].","author":"WHO","year":"2022"},{"key":"pcbi.1011463.ref006","article-title":"epinowcast: Flexible hierarchical nowcasting.","author":"S Abbott","year":"2021","journal-title":"Zenodo"},{"key":"pcbi.1011463.ref007","article-title":"Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region","author":"SR Seaman","year":"2022","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat."},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1011463.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1010767","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010767","article-title":"Bayesian nowcasting with leading indicators applied to COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden","volume":"18","author":"F Bergstr\u00f6m","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLOS Comput Biol."},{"key":"pcbi.1011463.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v077.i11","article-title":"Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Epidemic Phenomena Using the R Package surveillance.","volume":"77","author":"S Meyer","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1011463.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"490","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.202000112","article-title":"Nowcasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria","volume":"63","author":"F G\u00fcnther","year":"2021","journal-title":"Biom J."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1011463.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"993","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12194","article-title":"Bayesian nowcasting during the STEC O104:H4 outbreak in Germany, 2011","volume":"70","author":"M H\u00f6hle","year":"2014","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1011463.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.2143\/AST.29.2.504622","article-title":"The Standard Error of Chain Ladder Reserve Estimates: Recursive Calculation and Inclusion of a Tail Factor","volume":"29","author":"T. 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