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Recently, manipulating neuron activity using light-sensitive opsins, optogenetics, has increased the specificity of neural perturbation. However, using widefield optogenetic interventions, multiple neurons are usually perturbed, producing a confound\u2014any of the stimulated neurons can have affected the postsynaptic neuron making it challenging to discern which neurons produced the causal effect. Here, we show how such confounds produce large biases in interpretations. We explain how confounding can be reduced by combining instrumental variables (IV) and difference in differences (DiD) techniques from econometrics. Combined, these methods can estimate (causal) effective connectivity by exploiting the weak, approximately random signal resulting from the interaction between stimulation and the absolute refractory period of the neuron. 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