{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T06:22:56Z","timestamp":1772173376857,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012182","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,25]],"date-time":"2024-06-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719273600000}}],"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,12]],"date-time":"2024-06-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1718150400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004785","name":"Nordforsk","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["105572 NordicMathCovid"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["105572 NordicMathCovid"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004785","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012182","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,12]],"date-time":"2024-06-12T13:43:17Z","timestamp":1718199797000},"page":"e1012182","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0677-6761","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mikhail","family":"Shubin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Hilde Kjelgaard","family":"Brustad","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8321-2724","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"J\u00f8rgen Eriksson","family":"Midtb\u00f8","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Felix","family":"G\u00fcnther","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Laura","family":"Alessandretti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Tapio","family":"Ala-Nissila","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Gianpaolo","family":"Scalia Tomba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Mikko","family":"Kivel\u00e4","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4689-6995","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Louis Yat Hin","family":"Chan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8411-8329","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lasse","family":"Leskel\u00e4","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1012182.ref001","unstructured":"European Commission, Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy, Peyrony, J., Rubio, J., Viaggi, R. 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