{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,9]],"date-time":"2026-05-09T12:13:19Z","timestamp":1778328799364,"version":"3.51.4"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012849","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,4]],"date-time":"2025-03-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1741046400000}}],"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740096000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec019\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Norovirus is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis, adding to strain on healthcare systems. Diagnostic test reporting of norovirus is often delayed, resulting in incomplete data for real-time surveillance.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec020\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To nowcast the real-time case burden of norovirus a generalised additive model (GAM), semi-mechanistic Bayesian joint process and delay model \u201cepinowcast\u201d, and Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model including syndromic surveillance data were developed. These models were evaluated over weekly nowcasts using a probabilistic scoring framework.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec021\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using the weighted interval score (WIS) we show a heuristic approach is outperformed by models harnessing time delay corrections, with daily mean WIS = 7.73, 3.03, 2.29 for the baseline, \u201cepinowcast\u201d, and GAM, respectively. Forecasting approaches were reliable in the event of temporally changing reporting values, with WIS = 4.57 for the BSTS model. However, the syndromic surveillance (111 online pathways) did not improve the BSTS model, WIS = 10.28, potentially indicating poor correspondence between surveillance indicators.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec022\">\n                    <jats:title>Interpretation<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Analysis of surveillance data enhanced by nowcasting delayed reporting improves understanding over simple model assumptions, important for real-time decision making. The modelling approach needs to be informed by the patterns of the reporting delay and can have large impacts on operational performance and insights produced.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012849","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T13:45:10Z","timestamp":1740145510000},"page":"e1012849","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["An application of nowcasting methods: Cases of norovirus during the winter 2023\/2024 in England"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8743-0817","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jonathon","family":"Mellor","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9671-8302","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Maria 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