{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T19:22:05Z","timestamp":1772133725700,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013404","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1772064000000}}],"reference-count":103,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1771372800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000266","name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UKRI1110"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UKRI1110"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000266","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Understanding, predicting and managing the spread of plant pathogens is crucial given the economic, societal and climatic benefits of plants, including crops and trees. Mathematical models have long been used to investigate disease dynamics in plants. An important component of such models is to account for spatial structure, since plant hosts are immobile and a majority of disease spread will often be localised. Here we apply a lattice-based mathematical modelling approach, a pair approximation, to model disease spread. While this method has previously been used to develop epidemiological theory, it has not been used to predict spread in a specific pathosystem. We fit our lattice-based epidemiological model to experimental data relating to Bahia bark scaling of citrus, an economically-important disease in north-eastern Brazil, and compare its performance to a more commonly used dispersal-kernel modelling approach. We show that the lattice-based model fits the data well, predicting a significant degree of near-neighbour infections, with similar estimated values of epidemiologically-meaningful parameters to the dispersal model. We highlight the pros and cons of the lattice-based approach and discuss how it may be used to predict disease spread and optimise control of plant diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013404","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]],"date-time":"2026-02-18T18:43:21Z","timestamp":1771440201000},"page":"e1013404","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Fitting a lattice model with local and global transmission to spread of a plant disease"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6260-6516","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alex","family":"Best","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3533-8672","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nik","family":"Cunniffe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.phyto.43.113004.133839","article-title":"Plant disease: a threat to global food security","volume":"43","author":"RN Strange","year":"2005","journal-title":"Annu Rev Phytopathol."},{"issue":"6160","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1235773","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1235773","article-title":"The consequence of tree pests and diseases for ecosystem services","volume":"342","author":"IL Boyd","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science."},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3456","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jia.2022.08.060","article-title":"Potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans: from molecular interactions to integrated management strategies","volume":"21","author":"S Dong","year":"2022","journal-title":"Journal of Integrative Agriculture."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fgb.2015.04.004","article-title":"The impact of Septoria tritici Blotch disease on wheat: an EU perspective","volume":"79","author":"H Fones","year":"2015","journal-title":"Fungal Genet Biol."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1017\/S0021859605005708","article-title":"Crop losses to pests","volume":"144","author":"E-C Oerke","year":"2005","journal-title":"J Agric Sci."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"430","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-018-0793-y","article-title":"The global burden of pathogens and pests on major food crops","volume":"3","author":"S Savary","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nature Ecology & Evolution."},{"issue":"23","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2022239118","article-title":"The persistent threat of emerging plant disease pandemics to global food security","volume":"118","author":"JB Ristaino","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A."},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1141","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-02-23-0069-IA","article-title":"What can be learned by a synoptic review of plant disease epidemics and outbreaks published in 2021?","volume":"113","author":"MJ Jeger","year":"2023","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fielder H, Beale T, Jeger MJ, Oliver G, Parnell S, Szyniszewska AM, et al. A synoptic review of plant disease epidemics and outbreaks published in 2022. Phytopathology. 2024.","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-01-24-0042-RVW"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"731","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-023-02643-9","article-title":"A spatio-temporal dataset of plant pests\u2019 first introductions across the EU and potential entry pathways","volume":"10","author":"MC Rosace","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Data."},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1398","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12214","article-title":"The global spread of crop pests and pathogens","volume":"23","author":"DP Bebber","year":"2014","journal-title":"Global Ecology and Biogeography."},{"issue":"10","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"535","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2004.07.021","article-title":"Emerging infectious diseases of plants: pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers","volume":"19","author":"PK Anderson","year":"2004","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-025-00652-3","article-title":"Crop pest responses to global changes in climate and land management","volume":"6","author":"C-S Ma","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat Rev Earth Environ."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-phyto-080614-120207","article-title":"Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world","volume":"53","author":"DP Bebber","year":"2015","journal-title":"Annu Rev Phytopathol."},{"issue":"10","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"640","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-023-00900-7","article-title":"Climate change impacts on plant pathogens, food security and paths forward","volume":"21","author":"BK Singh","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol."},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"792","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3059.2008.01886.x","article-title":"The biosecurity threat to the UK and global environment from international trade in plants","volume":"57","author":"CM Brasier","year":"2008","journal-title":"Plant Pathology."},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.2006025","article-title":"Import volumes and biosecurity interventions shape the arrival rate of fungal pathogens","volume":"16","author":"BA Sikes","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1771","DOI":"10.3390\/microorganisms9081771","article-title":"Xylella fastidiosa in olive: A review of control attempts and current management","volume":"9","author":"M Morelli","year":"2021","journal-title":"Microorganisms."},{"issue":"11","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3349","DOI":"10.1094\/PDIS-03-21-0625-SC","article-title":"Evidence that Xylella fastidiosa is the Causal Agent of Almond Leaf Scorch Disease in Alicante, Mainland Spain (Iberian Peninsula)","volume":"105","author":"E Marco-Noales","year":"2021","journal-title":"Plant Dis."},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1512","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-04-15-0101-RVW","article-title":"Fusarium Wilt of Banana","volume":"105","author":"RC Ploetz","year":"2015","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-phyto-073009-114418","article-title":"Current epidemiological understanding of citrus Huanglongbing","volume":"48","author":"TR Gottwald","year":"2010","journal-title":"Annu Rev Phytopathol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-phyto-021622-120703","article-title":"Tomato brown rugose fruit virus pandemic","volume":"61","author":"NM Salem","year":"2023","journal-title":"Annual Review of Phytopathology."},{"issue":"7308","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"824","DOI":"10.1038\/466824a","article-title":"Plant pathology: sudden larch death","volume":"466","author":"C Brasier","year":"2010","journal-title":"Nature."},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"678","DOI":"10.1093\/forestry\/cpae040","article-title":"Current understanding and future prospects for ash dieback disease with a focus on Britain","volume":"97","author":"M Combes","year":"2024","journal-title":"Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1016\/j.funeco.2017.01.002","article-title":"Insights into the pathways of spread and potential origins of Dothistroma septosporum in Britain","volume":"26","author":"MS Mullett","year":"2017","journal-title":"Fungal Ecology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1177\/0030727020906831","article-title":"Implementation of the GB plant health and biosecurity strategy 2014\u20132019 with foresight on a new strategy for 2020","volume":"49","author":"NM Salem","year":"2020","journal-title":"Outlook on Agriculture."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Keeling M, Rohani P. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton University Press; 2008.","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400841035"},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref028","unstructured":"Madden LV, Hughes G, van den Bosch F. The Study of Plant Disease Epidemics. American Phytopathological Society Press; 2007."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"96","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-11-17-0386-R","article-title":"Functional data analysis of weather variables linked to fusarium head blight epidemics in the United States","volume":"109","author":"DA Shah","year":"2019","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cunniffe NJ, Gilligan CA. Using mathematical models to predict epidemics and to optimise disease detection and management. In: Ristaino JB, Records AR, editors. Emerging Plant Diseases and Global Food Security. American Phytopathological Society Press; 2020.","DOI":"10.1094\/9780890546383.012"},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2014.06.002","article-title":"Thirteen challenges in modelling plant diseases","volume":"10","author":"NJ Cunniffe","year":"2015","journal-title":"Epidemics."},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.8871","article-title":"Inference for epidemic models with time-varying infection rates: tracking the dynamics of oak processionary moth in the UK","volume":"12","author":"LE Wadkin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ecology and Evolution."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1007\/s10658-005-1229-5","article-title":"Botanical epidemiology: some key advances and its continuing role in disease management","volume":"115","author":"LV Madden","year":"2006","journal-title":"Eur J Plant Pathol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fabre F, Coville J, Cunniffe NJ. Optimising reactive disease management using spatially explicit models at the landscape scale. In: Scott P, Strange R, Korsten L, Gullino L, editors. Plant Diseases and Food Security in the 21st Century. Springer; 2021.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-57899-2_4"},{"issue":"186","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20210718","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2021.0718","article-title":"Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic","volume":"19","author":"EH Bussell","year":"2022","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/d15040496","article-title":"Quantifying invasive pest dynamics through inference of a two-node epidemic network model","volume":"15","author":"LE Wadkin","year":"2023","journal-title":"Diversity."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1086\/430639","article-title":"Merging spatial and temporal structure within a metapopulation model","volume":"166","author":"YD DeWoody","year":"2005","journal-title":"Am Nat."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nathan R, Klein E, Robledo-Arnuncio JJ, Revilla E. Dispersal kernels: review. Dispersal Ecology and Evolution. Oxford University Press; 2012. p. 186\u2013210. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199608898.003.0015","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199608898.003.0015"},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3800(95)00030-5","article-title":"On the velocity of epidemic waves in model plant disease epidemics","volume":"87","author":"H Scherm","year":"1996","journal-title":"Ecological Modelling."},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"495","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO.1999.89.6.495","article-title":"Pandemics of focal plant disease, a model","volume":"89","author":"F van den Bosch","year":"1999","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004211","article-title":"Optimising and communicating options for the control of invasive plant disease when there is epidemiological uncertainty","volume":"11","author":"NJ Cunniffe","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1317","DOI":"10.1111\/nph.14488","article-title":"Risk-based management of invading plant disease","volume":"214","author":"SR Hyatt-Twynam","year":"2017","journal-title":"New Phytol."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5610","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-90343-2","article-title":"Assessing delimiting strategies to identify the infested zones of quarantine plant pests and diseases","volume":"15","author":"JMJ Koh","year":"2025","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"issue":"20","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5640","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1602153113","article-title":"Modeling when, where, and how to manage a forest epidemic, motivated by sudden oak death in California","volume":"113","author":"NJ Cunniffe","year":"2016","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ellis J, L\u00e1zaro E, Duarte B, Magalh\u00e3es T, Duarte A, Benhadi-Mar\u00edn J, et al. Developing epidemiological preparedness for a plant disease invasion: Modelling citrus hu\u00e1ngl\u00f3ngb\u01d0ng in the European Union. Plants, People, Planet. 2025.","DOI":"10.1101\/2024.06.04.597414"},{"issue":"10","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/oik.10616","article-title":"The basic-reproduction number of infectious diseases in spatially structured host populations","volume":"2024","author":"F van den Bosch","year":"2024","journal-title":"Oikos."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"240763","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.240763","article-title":"Predicting the effect of landscape structure on epidemic invasion using an analytical estimate for infection rate","volume":"12","author":"YF Suprunenko","year":"2025","journal-title":"R Soc Open Sci."},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1035","DOI":"10.1143\/ptp\/88.6.1035","article-title":"Statistical mechanics of population: the lattice Lotka-Volterra model","volume":"88","author":"H Matsuda","year":"1992","journal-title":"Progress of Theoretical Physics."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rand DA, Keeling M, Wilson HB. Invasion, stability and evolution to criticality in spatially extended, artificial host-pathogen ecologies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences. 1995;259:55\u201363.","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1995.0009"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"435","DOI":"10.1006\/jtbi.2001.2322","article-title":"Pair approximation for lattice models with multiple interaction scales","volume":"210","author":"SP Ellner","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Theor Biol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00163881","article-title":"Pathogen invasion and host extinction in lattice structured populations","volume":"32","author":"K Sato","year":"1994","journal-title":"Journal of Mathematical Biology."},{"issue":"1378","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2153","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1998.0354","article-title":"Studying and approximating spatio\u2013temporal models for epidemic spread and control","volume":"353","author":"JAN Filipe","year":"1998","journal-title":"Phil Trans R Soc Lond B."},{"issue":"1421","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"859","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1999.0716","article-title":"The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions","volume":"266","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"1999","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2007.06.013","article-title":"Host-parasite interactions between the local and the mean-field: how and when does spatial population structure matter?","volume":"249","author":"SD Webb","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Theor Biol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tpb.2016.08.003","article-title":"SIR model with local and global infective contacts: a deterministic approach and applications","volume":"112","author":"A Maltz","year":"2016","journal-title":"Theor Popul Biol."},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-021-00961-w","article-title":"How local interactions impact the dynamics of an epidemic","volume":"83","author":"L Wren","year":"2021","journal-title":"Bull Math Biol."},{"issue":"1432","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1933","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.1999.0869","article-title":"\u201cSmall worlds\u201d and the evolution of virulence: infection occurs locally and at a distance","volume":"266","author":"M Boots","year":"1999","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci."},{"issue":"1715","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref058","first-page":"2216","article-title":"Host resistance and coevolution in spatially structured populations","volume":"278","author":"A Best","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc Biol Sci."},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bulm.2003.09.002","article-title":"Inferring the dynamics of a spatial epidemic from time-series data","volume":"66","author":"JAN Filipe","year":"2004","journal-title":"Bull Math Biol."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1744-7348.2006.00057.x","article-title":"Progress, spread and natural transmission of Bahia bark scaling of citrus in Brazil","volume":"148","author":"FF Laranjeira","year":"2006","journal-title":"Annals of Applied Biology."},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003753","article-title":"Cost-effective control of plant disease when epidemiological knowledge is incomplete: modelling Bahia bark scaling of citrus","volume":"10","author":"NJ Cunniffe","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"403","DOI":"10.1016\/0021-9991(76)90041-3","article-title":"A general method for numerically simulating the stochastic time evolution of coupled chemical reactions","volume":"22","author":"DT Gillespie","year":"1976","journal-title":"Journal of Computational Physics."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.2202\/1557-4679.1171","article-title":"Inference in epidemic models without likelihoods","volume":"5","author":"T McKinley","year":"2009","journal-title":"The International Journal of Biostatistics."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2016.07.001","article-title":"A tutorial introduction to Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using Approximate Bayesian Computation","volume":"287","author":"T Kypraios","year":"2017","journal-title":"Math Biosci."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2018.05.009","article-title":"Kernel-density estimation and approximate Bayesian computation for flexible epidemiological model fitting in Python","volume":"25","author":"MA Irvine","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemics."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref066","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100368","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2019.100368","article-title":"Approximate Bayesian Computation for infectious disease modelling","volume":"29","author":"A Minter","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemics."},{"issue":"10","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref067","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9649","DOI":"10.1007\/s11071-023-08327-8","article-title":"Uncertainty quantification in mechanistic epidemic models via cross-entropy approximate Bayesian computation","volume":"111","author":"Jr Cunha A","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nonlinear Dyn."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref068","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1038\/s41592-019-0686-2","article-title":"SciPy 1.0: fundamental algorithms for scientific computing in Python","volume":"17","author":"P Virtanen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Methods."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref069","article-title":"Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes","volume":"10","author":"FM Neri","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol."},{"issue":"136","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20170386","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2017.0386","article-title":"Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework","volume":"14","author":"HK Adrakey","year":"2017","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface."},{"issue":"17","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref071","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6258","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1310997111","article-title":"Bayesian inference for an emerging arboreal epidemic in the presence of control","volume":"111","author":"M Parry","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref072","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1956","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2664.13122","article-title":"Grower and regulator conflict in management of the citrus disease Huanglongbing in Brazil: a modelling study","volume":"55","author":"AP Craig","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Ecology."},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref073","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-3059.1996.d01-116.x","article-title":"Fitting and testing spatio-temporal stochastic models with application in plant epidemiology","volume":"45","author":"GJ Gibson","year":"1996","journal-title":"Plant Pathology."},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref074","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"725","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-05-09-0120","article-title":"Spatial sampling to detect an invasive pathogen outside of an eradication zone","volume":"101","author":"I Demon","year":"2011","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.014","article-title":"Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries","volume":"324","author":"RN Thompson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol Modell."},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref076","article-title":"How growers make decisions impacts plant disease control","volume":"18","author":"RE Murray-Watson","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref077","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1566","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-12-23-0465-R","article-title":"Performance of outbreak management plans for emerging plant diseases: the case of almond leaf scorch caused by Xylella fastidiosa in mainland Spain","volume":"114","author":"M Cendoya","year":"2024","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref078","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-04-10-0121","article-title":"Sexual reproduction and gene flow in the pine pathogen Dothistroma septosporum in British Columbia","volume":"101","author":"AL Dale","year":"2011","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref079","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.phyto.46.081407.104740","article-title":"The powdery mildews: a review of the world\u2019s most familiar (yet poorly known) plant pathogens","volume":"46","author":"DA Glawe","year":"2008","journal-title":"Annu Rev Phytopathol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref080","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-phyto-080417-050036","article-title":"Wheat blast: past, present, and future","volume":"56","author":"PC Ceresini","year":"2018","journal-title":"Annu Rev Phytopathol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref081","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.micro.57.030502.090957","article-title":"On the trail of a cereal killer: exploring the biology of Magnaporthe grisea","volume":"57","author":"NJ Talbot","year":"2003","journal-title":"Annu Rev Microbiol."},{"issue":"13","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref082","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7128","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.111548698","article-title":"The effect of cultivation on the size, shape, and persistence of disease patches in fields","volume":"98","author":"JE Truscott","year":"2001","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref083","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"van Emden H, Harrington R. Aphids as crop pests. CABI; 2007.","DOI":"10.1079\/9780851998190.0000"},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref084","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009727","article-title":"Modelling interference between vectors of non-persistently transmitted plant viruses to identify effective control strategies","volume":"17","author":"M Zaffaroni","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref085","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"286","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ufug.2015.02.009","article-title":"Managing tree pests and diseases in urban settings: the case of oak processionary moth in london, 2006\u20132012","volume":"14","author":"I Tomlinson","year":"2015","journal-title":"Urban Forestry and Urban Greening."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref086","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"044109","DOI":"10.1063\/1.2159468","article-title":"Efficient step size selection for the tau-leaping simulation method","volume":"124","author":"Y Cao","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Chem Phys."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref087","first-page":"806","article-title":"Length scale of disease spread: fact or artifact of experimental geometry","volume":"86","author":"FJ Ferrandino","year":"1993","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref088","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2027","DOI":"10.2307\/2265698","article-title":"Dispersal data and the spread of invading organisms","volume":"77","author":"MA Lewis","year":"1996","journal-title":"Ecology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref089","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"456","DOI":"10.1086\/597220","article-title":"Long-distance dispersal and accelerating waves of disease","volume":"173","author":"KE Sackett","year":"2009","journal-title":"The American Naturalist."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref090","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-statistics-022513-115543","article-title":"Bayesian computational tools","volume":"1","author":"CP Robert","year":"2014","journal-title":"Annu Rev Stat Appl."},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref091","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2645","DOI":"10.1111\/1755-0998.13224","article-title":"Deep learning for population size history inference: design, comparison and combination with approximate Bayesian computation","volume":"21","author":"T Sanchez","year":"2021","journal-title":"Mol Ecol Resour."},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref092","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1026543900054","article-title":"The Earth Mover\u2019s Distance as a Metric for Image Retrieval","volume":"40","author":"Y Rubner","year":"2000","journal-title":"International Journal of Computer Vision."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref093","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1890\/ES10-00192.1","article-title":"Epidemiological modeling of invasion in heterogeneous landscapes: spread of sudden oak death in California (1990\u20132030)","volume":"2","author":"RK Meentemeyer","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecosphere."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref094","unstructured":"Dasgupta M. Principles of plant pathology. Allied Publishers; 1999."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref095","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.2307\/2404439","article-title":"An analytical model of plant virus disease dynamics with roguing and replanting","volume":"31","author":"M-S Chan","year":"1994","journal-title":"The Journal of Applied Ecology."},{"key":"pcbi.1013404.ref096","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1007\/s002850050047","article-title":"The dynamics of infectious diseases in orchards with roguing and replanting as control strategy","volume":"35","author":"F van den Bosch","year":"1996","journal-title":"J Math Biol."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref097","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"291","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0307-6962.2004.00394.x","article-title":"Epidemiology of insect-transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions","volume":"29","author":"MJ Jeger","year":"2004","journal-title":"Physiological Entomology."},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref098","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2013.10.705","article-title":"Mathematical modeling of citrus groves infected by huanglongbing","volume":"10","author":"K Jacobsen","year":"2013","journal-title":"Math Biosci Eng."},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref099","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-05-12-0101-R","article-title":"Roguing with replacement in perennial crops: conditions for successful disease management","volume":"103","author":"MS Sisterson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"issue":"10","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1095","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-03-17-0080-FI","article-title":"Modeling virus coinfection to inform management of Maize Lethal Necrosis in Kenya","volume":"107","author":"FM Hilker","year":"2017","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"issue":"195","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref101","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20220517","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2022.0517","article-title":"How the epidemiology of disease-resistant and disease-tolerant varieties affects grower behaviour","volume":"19","author":"RE Murray-Watson","year":"2022","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface."},{"issue":"12","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1370","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-99-12-1370","article-title":"Optimal strategies for the eradication of asiatic citrus canker in heterogeneous host landscapes","volume":"99","author":"S Parnell","year":"2009","journal-title":"Phytopathology."},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1013404.ref103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"638","DOI":"10.1094\/PHYTO-100-7-0638","article-title":"The effect of landscape pattern on the optimal eradication zone of an invading epidemic","volume":"100","author":"S Parnell","year":"2010","journal-title":"Phytopathology."}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013404","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1772064000000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013404","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T18:49:27Z","timestamp":1772131767000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013404"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Stephen","family":"Beckett","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]},"references-count":103,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013404","relation":{},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,18]]}}}