{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,22]],"date-time":"2026-04-22T07:30:54Z","timestamp":1776843054691,"version":"3.51.2"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013808","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,22]],"date-time":"2025-12-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766361600000}}],"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,17]],"date-time":"2025-12-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1765929600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["F31AI186550"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["F31AI186550"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75N93021C00017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75N93021C00017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006492","name":"Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["T32AI138952"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["T32AI138952"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006492","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005825","name":"National Institute of Food and Agriculture","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["4955"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["4955"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005825","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    In an effort to avert future pandemics, surveillance studies aim to identify animal viruses at high risk of spilling over into humans. These studies have revealed substantial diversity in identified viruses. However, the number of tools currently available to assess pandemic risk is limited. Methods currently in use include the characterization of candidate viruses using\n                    <jats:italic>in vitro<\/jats:italic>\n                    laboratory assays and experimental transmission studies in animal models. However, transmission experiments yield relatively low-resolution outcomes that are not immediately translatable to projections of viral dynamics at the level of a host population. To address this gap, we present an analytical framework to extend the use of measurements from experimental transmission studies to generate more quantitative risk assessments. Specifically, we use within-host viral titer data from index and contact animals to estimate parameters relevant to transmission between pairs of individuals. We then extend this model to estimate epidemiological parameters, such as reproduction numbers and generation intervals. We present our analytical framework in the context of two influenza A virus (IAV) ferret transmission experiments: one using influenza A\/California\/07\/2009 (Cal\/2009) and one using influenza A\/Hong Kong\/1\/1968 (Hong Kong\/1968). In a head-to-head comparison, we find that Cal\/2009 has higher pandemic potential than Hong Kong\/1968. Our results depend on several assumptions, including that within-host viral dynamics in humans and those in the model animal used (here, ferrets) share quantitative similarities and that viral transmissibility between model animals reflects viral transmissibility between humans. The methods we present to assess pandemic risk of viral isolates can be used to improve relative risk assessment of other emerging viruses of pandemic concern.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013808","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,17]],"date-time":"2025-12-17T18:41:13Z","timestamp":1765996873000},"page":"e1013808","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Quantifying viral pandemic potential from experimental transmission studies"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2331-470X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Elizabeth D.","family":"Somsen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kayla M.","family":"Septer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Cassandra J.","family":"Field","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Devanshi R.","family":"Patel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anice C.","family":"Lowen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Troy C.","family":"Sutton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Katia","family":"Koelle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1013808.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.18491","article-title":"Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment","volume":"5","author":"M Lipsitch","year":"2016","journal-title":"Elife."},{"key":"pcbi.1013808.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.03883","article-title":"Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment","volume":"3","author":"CA Russell","year":"2014","journal-title":"Elife."},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1013808.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1215","DOI":"10.2353\/ajpath.2007.070248","article-title":"Human and avian influenza viruses target different cells in the lower respiratory tract of humans and other mammals","volume":"171","author":"D van Riel","year":"2007","journal-title":"Am J Pathol."},{"key":"pcbi.1013808.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.07969","article-title":"Mapping influenza transmission in the ferret model to transmission in humans","volume":"4","author":"MG Buhnerkempe","year":"2015","journal-title":"Elife."},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1013808.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0055358","article-title":"Sample size considerations for one-to-one animal transmission studies of the influenza A viruses","volume":"8","author":"H Nishiura","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"pcbi.1013808.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Field CJ, Septer KM, Patel DR, Weaver VC, Sim DG, Restori RH, et al. Defining the transmissible dose 50%, the donor inoculation dose that results in airborne transmission to 50% of contacts, for two pandemic influenza viruses in ferrets. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory; 2025. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2025.03.04.641289","DOI":"10.1101\/2025.03.04.641289"},{"key":"pcbi.1013808.ref007","unstructured":"Park MH. Evolutionary dynamics of pathogen emergence at multiple scales. 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