{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,17]],"date-time":"2026-01-17T16:22:15Z","timestamp":1768666935515,"version":"3.49.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013874","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,16]],"date-time":"2026-01-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1768521600000}}],"reference-count":61,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767571200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000268","name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BB\/X005224\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/X005224\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000268","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000268","name":"Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BB\/X016137\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/X016137\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000268","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100018336","name":"National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIHR207393"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIHR207393"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100018336","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"The Pandemic Institute"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Since 2020, large-scale outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in Great Britain have resulted in substantial poultry mortality and economic losses. Alongside the costs, the risk of circulation leading to a viral reassortment that causes zoonotic spillover raises additional concerns. However, the precise mechanisms driving transmission between poultry premises and the impact of potential control measures in Great Britain, such as vaccination, are not fully understood. We have developed a spatial transmission model for the spread of HPAI in poultry premises calibrated to infected premises data for the 2022\u201323 season using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our results indicate that reducing the susceptibility of the premises surrounding an identified infected premises (for example, through enhanced biosecurity measures and\/or vaccination) can substantially reduce the overall number of infected premises. Our findings highlight that enhanced control measures could limit the future impact of HPAI on the poultry industry and reduce the risk of broader health threats.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1013874","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T19:47:16Z","timestamp":1767642436000},"page":"e1013874","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A modelling assessment of the impact of control measures on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in Great Britain"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2665-0127","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christopher N.","family":"Davis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2992-2004","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Edward M.","family":"Hill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chris P.","family":"Jewell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kristyna","family":"Rysava","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8545-5212","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Robin N.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Tildesley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1244","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2906.221723","article-title":"Novel Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b reassortants in migratory birds, China","volume":"29","author":"J Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis."},{"issue":"6592","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"459","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abo1232","article-title":"Resurgence of avian influenza virus","volume":"376","author":"M Wille","year":"2022","journal-title":"Science."},{"key":"pcbi.1013874.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110041","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2023.110041","article-title":"The changing dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: next steps for management & science in North America","volume":"282","author":"JA Harvey","year":"2023","journal-title":"Biological Conservation."},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1002\/vetr.2311","article-title":"Shift in HPAI infection dynamics causes significant losses in seabird populations across Great Britain","volume":"191","author":"M Falchieri","year":"2022","journal-title":"Vet Rec."},{"issue":"8045","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"304","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-024-08054-z","article-title":"The global H5N1 influenza panzootic in mammals","volume":"637","author":"TP Peacock","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nature."},{"issue":"9","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"525","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-024-01087-1","article-title":"Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus outbreak in cattle: the knowns and unknowns","volume":"22","author":"G Neumann","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol."},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2200061","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.5.2200061","article-title":"A case of avian influenza A (H5N1) in England, January 2022","volume":"27","author":"I Oliver","year":"2022","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance."},{"key":"pcbi.1013874.ref008","article-title":"Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infections in humans","author":"S Garg","year":"2024","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine."},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1013874.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"437","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(24)00238-X","article-title":"What is the pandemic potential of avian influenza A(H5N1)?","volume":"24","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"key":"pcbi.1013874.ref010","unstructured":"Arter-Hazzard M, Burns G, Aldridge C, Gale P, Perrin L, Bowen J. 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