{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]],"date-time":"2025-12-31T11:19:57Z","timestamp":1767179997515,"version":"build-2238731810"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010817","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,23]],"date-time":"2024-09-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1727049600000}}],"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,6]],"date-time":"2024-09-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1725580800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Reverse epidemiology is a mathematical modelling tool used to ascertain information about the source of a pathogen, given the spatial and temporal distribution of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. In the context of a deliberately released pathogen, such as\n                    <jats:italic>Bacillus anthracis<\/jats:italic>\n                    (the disease-causing organism of anthrax), this can allow responders to quickly identify the location and timing of the release, as well as other factors such as the strength of the release, and the realized wind speed and direction at release. These estimates can then be used to parameterise a predictive mechanistic model, allowing for estimation of the potential scale of the release, and to optimise the distribution of prophylaxis.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    In this paper we present two novel approaches to reverse epidemiology, and demonstrate their utility in responding to a simulated deliberate release of\n                    <jats:italic>B. anthracis<\/jats:italic>\n                    in ten locations in the UK and compare these to the standard grid-search approach. The two methods\u2014a modified MCMC and a Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network\u2014are able to identify the source location and timing of the release with significantly better accuracy compared to the grid-search approach. Further, the neural network method is able to do inference on new data significantly quicker than either the grid-search or novel MCMC methods, allowing for rapid deployment in time-sensitive outbreaks.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010817","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,6]],"date-time":"2024-09-06T14:26:50Z","timestamp":1725632810000},"page":"e1010817","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Backtracking: Improved methods for identifying the source of a deliberate release of Bacillus anthracis from the temporal and spatial distribution of cases"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1628-3231","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Joseph","family":"Shingleton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Mustard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Steven","family":"Dyke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hannah","family":"Williams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Emma","family":"Bennett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5962-4211","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Thomas","family":"Finnie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1010817.ref001","volume-title":"Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic","author":"JB Nuzzo","year":"2019"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1010817.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1000356","article-title":"Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release","volume":"5","author":"J Legrand","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLOS Computational Biology"},{"issue":"106","key":"pcbi.1010817.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20150096","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2015.0096","article-title":"A review of back-calculation techniques and their potential to inform mitigation strategies with application to non-transmissible acute infectious diseases","volume":"12","author":"J Egan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Society Interface"},{"issue":"17","key":"pcbi.1010817.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10129","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1631983100","article-title":"Modeling the optimum duration of antibiotic prophylaxis in an anthrax outbreak","volume":"100","author":"R Brookmeyer","year":"2003","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"key":"pcbi.1010817.ref005","unstructured":"Hanna SR, Briggs GA, Hosker RP Jr. Handbook on Atmospheric Diffusion. 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