{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T18:08:57Z","timestamp":1781201337413,"version":"3.54.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014329","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781136000000}}],"reference-count":61,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]],"date-time":"2026-05-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779753600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75D30122C14697"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30122C14697"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI137093"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI137093"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Since the development of the first vaccines targeting the original SARS-CoV-2 virus sequence in 2020, mRNA-based vaccines have been updated three times: targeting Omicron BA.4\/BA.5 in 2022, the XBB lineage in 2023, and the KP.2 variant in 2024. While genomic surveillance has advanced our understanding of pathogen diversity, gaps remain in incorporating genomic information to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against emerging variants. This study aims to characterize the relationship between VE and sequence-based genetic distance, to establish a framework for predicting near real-time changes in the level of vaccine protection from virus surveillance data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We analyzed 10,156 whole genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 cases from Connecticut, USA, between April 2021 to July 2024. We first assessed how genetic distance, specifically the number of amino acid substitutions in the spike gene between COVID-19 case sequences and the mRNA vaccine formulation sequence(s), correlates with vaccine protection levels. Incorporating data from over 1 million test-negative controls, we developed a Bayesian time-varying model with autoregressive terms to assess VE at a weekly level. The analysis was adjusted for ZIP-code-level income, age, sex, and prior vaccine doses received. We then employed a random effects meta-regression to explore the relationship between VE and amino acid distance over time. Finally, we used the meta-regression model to estimate potential vaccine protection against emerging variants.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We found that spike gene amino acid distance showed a negative correlation with VE over time. Stepwise increases in amino acid distance aligned with sharp VE declines during variant emergence, while accumulation of within-variant changes was also associated with gradual VE decline. Each 10 amino acid increase in distance in the spike gene corresponds to a predicted 15.4% (95% credible intervals (CrI): \u20132.0%, 34.6%) reduction in VE. For the 2023\/24 updated vaccine, spike distance rose from 12.25 to 30.23, predicting a 43.4% (95% CrI: \u20135.7%, 90.1%) drop in VE using sequence information alone.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our framework quantifies how the emergence of new variants is expected to affect VE for SARS-CoV-2. By quantifying the relationship between amino acid substitutions and time-varying VE, we leverage intrinsic pathogen features, such as spike amino acid distance, to inform future vaccine updates using genomic sequences. As genomic surveillance data becomes more widely available across pathogens, this framework can serve as a near-real time surveillance tool to infer population-level protection and offers valuable insights for vaccine update decisions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014329","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]],"date-time":"2026-05-26T17:34:30Z","timestamp":1779816870000},"page":"e1014329","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Utilizing virus genomic surveillance to predict vaccine effectiveness"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2707-3547","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jiye","family":"Kwon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ke","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6274-6970","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Joshua L.","family":"Warren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sameer","family":"Pandya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0710-6775","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Anne M.","family":"Hahn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"Yale SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance Initiative","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Virginia E.","family":"Pitzer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel M.","family":"Weinberger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nathan D.","family":"Grubaugh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1742","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0906193106","article-title":"Evolution in health and medicine Sackler colloquium: The comparative genomics of viral emergence","author":"EC Holmes","year":"2010","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-023-00878-2","article-title":"The evolution of SARS-CoV-2","volume":"21","author":"PV Markov","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1038\/nrmicro.2017.118","article-title":"The evolution of seasonal influenza viruses","volume":"16","author":"VN Petrova","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol"},{"issue":"44","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2307712120","article-title":"Evolutionary stability of antigenically escaping viruses","volume":"120","author":"V Chard\u00e8s","year":"2023","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"540","DOI":"10.1038\/nrg2583","article-title":"Evolutionary analysis of the dynamics of viral infectious disease","volume":"10","author":"OG Pybus","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nat Rev Genet"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1016\/j.medj.2020.12.004","article-title":"Vaccination Is the Only Acceptable Path to Herd Immunity","volume":"1","author":"AL Rasmussen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Med"},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1008","DOI":"10.1038\/s41590-022-01248-5","article-title":"The humoral response and antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection","volume":"23","author":"H Qi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Immunol"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fimmu.2022.801522","article-title":"A detailed overview of immune escape, antibody escape, partial vaccine escape of SARS-CoV-2 and their emerging variants with escape mutations","volume":"13","author":"C Chakraborty","year":"2022","journal-title":"Frontiers in Immunology"},{"issue":"5656","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1090727","article-title":"Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens","volume":"303","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"2004","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"354","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12383","article-title":"An overview of the regulation of influenza vaccines in the United States","volume":"10","author":"JP Weir","year":"2016","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir Viruses"},{"issue":"5","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"551","DOI":"10.1111\/irv.12565","article-title":"The WHO global influenza surveillance and response system (GISRS)-A future perspective","volume":"12","author":"AJ Hay","year":"2018","journal-title":"Influenza Other Respir Viruses"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2024-068310","article-title":"June 2024 ACIP Meeting Update: Influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and Other Vaccines","volume":"154","author":"AB Yonts","year":"2024","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"issue":"37","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"819","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7337e2","article-title":"Use of COVID-19 Vaccines for Persons Aged \u22656 Months: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2024-2025","volume":"73","author":"L Panagiotakopoulos","year":"2024","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref014","unstructured":"FDA. FDA takes action on updated mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to better protect against currently circulating variants. 2023."},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"180","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7308a5","article-title":"Interim effectiveness of updated 2023-2024 (monovalent XBB.1.5) COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19-associated emergency department and urgent care encounters and hospitalization among immunocompetent adults aged \u226518 years - VISION and IVY networks, September 2023-January 2024","volume":"73","author":"J DeCuir","year":"2024","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref016","unstructured":"FDA. FDA approves and authorizes updated mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to better protect against currently circulating variants. 2024."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref017","unstructured":"YaleMedicine. What to Know About the Updated 2024-2025 COVID Vaccines. https:\/\/www.yalemedicine.org 2024."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref018","volume-title":"SARS-CoV-2 Variant XEC Increases as KP.3.1.1 Slows","author":"CDC","year":"2024"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref019","article-title":"An evidence-based approach to Covid-19 vaccination","author":"V Prasad","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"issue":"48","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2305227120","article-title":"Coupled models of genomic surveillance and evolving pandemics with applications for timely public health interventions","volume":"120","author":"B Espinoza","year":"2023","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref021","first-page":"9","article-title":"The need for linked genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2","volume":"48","author":"C Colijn","year":"2022","journal-title":"Can Commun Dis Rep"},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-021-00573-0","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape","volume":"19","author":"WT Harvey","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Rev Microbiol"},{"issue":"10321","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"234","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(21)02844-0","article-title":"Reduced neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 omicron B.1.1.529 variant by post-immunisation serum","volume":"399","author":"W Dejnirattisai","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2021.12.046","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses","volume":"185","author":"W Dejnirattisai","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cell"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104158","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ebiom.2022.104158","article-title":"Limited neutralisation of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.2 by convalescent and vaccine serum and monoclonal antibodies","volume":"82","author":"A Wilhelm","year":"2022","journal-title":"EBioMedicine"},{"issue":"36","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2103154118","article-title":"SARS-CoV-2 escape from a highly neutralizing COVID-19 convalescent plasma","volume":"118","author":"E Andreano","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"5682","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1097211","article-title":"Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus","volume":"305","author":"DJ Smith","year":"2004","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2175","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-46536-w","article-title":"Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features","volume":"15","author":"CA Magaret","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1715","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-022-01877-1","article-title":"Rapid evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants by analysis of genetic distance","volume":"28","author":"L Cao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Med"},{"issue":"633","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.abk3445","article-title":"Predicting the mutational drivers of future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern","volume":"14","author":"MC Maher","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Transl Med"},{"issue":"7855","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"616","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-021-03324-6","article-title":"mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants","volume":"592","author":"Z Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"9","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2372","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2021.03.013","article-title":"Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants escape neutralization by vaccine-induced humoral immunity","volume":"184","author":"WF Garcia-Beltran","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cell"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-virology-093022-013037","article-title":"The Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2","volume":"11","author":"EC Holmes","year":"2024","journal-title":"Annu Rev Virol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-022-00708-x","article-title":"Towards SARS-CoV-2 serotypes?","volume":"20","author":"E Simon-Loriere","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nature Reviews Microbiology"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref035","volume-title":"COVID-19, vaccinations (broken down by manufacturer) Pfizer\/BioNTech","author":"Our World in Data","year":"2024"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref036","volume-title":"COVID-19, vaccinations (broken down by manufacturer) Moderna","author":"Our World in Data","year":"2024"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref037","volume-title":"COVID-19, vaccinations (broken down by manufacturer) Johnson & Johnson","author":"Our World in Data","year":"2024"},{"issue":"7","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciz706","article-title":"Depletion-of-susceptibles Bias in Analyses of Intra-season Waning of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness","volume":"70","author":"GT Ray","year":"2020","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268819001961","article-title":"Depletion-of-susceptibles bias in influenza vaccine waning studies: how to ensure robust results","volume":"147","author":"M Lipsitch","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"232","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwad191","article-title":"Examining bias from differential depletion of susceptibles in vaccine effectiveness estimates in settings of waning","volume":"193","author":"R Kahn","year":"2024","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.1038\/s43856-023-00320-x","article-title":"Evolutionary implications of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination for the future design of vaccination strategies","volume":"3","author":"IM Rouzine","year":"2023","journal-title":"Commun Med (Lond)"},{"issue":"10","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2172","DOI":"10.1016\/j.immuni.2021.09.019","article-title":"Transition to endemicity: understanding COVID-19","volume":"54","author":"R Antia","year":"2021","journal-title":"Immunity"},{"issue":"9","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref043","article-title":"Genome-wide association study between SARS-CoV-2 single nucleotide polymorphisms and virus copies during infections","volume":"20","author":"K Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref044","article-title":"Escalating combinations of enhanced infectivity and immune escape define SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineage replacement","author":"NFG Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref045","unstructured":"Bureau USC. Median Income in the Past 12 Months (in 2022 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars). 2022."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref046","unstructured":"CDC. Covid-19 vaccinations in the United States, county. 2023."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref047","unstructured":"Comparing the COVID-19 vaccines: how are they different? YaleMedicine. 2024."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref048","unstructured":"FDA. Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for an Unapproved Product Review Memorandum. 2022."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref049","unstructured":"FDA. FDA authorizes Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent COVID-19 vaccines for use as a booster dose. https:\/\/www.fda.gov\/news-events\/press-announcements\/fda-authorizes-moderna-pfizer-biontech-bivalent-covid-19-vaccines-use-booster-dose 2022."},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref050","unstructured":"CDC. CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Program Provider Requirements and Support. 2023."},{"issue":"67","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3773","DOI":"10.21105\/joss.03773","article-title":"Nextclade: clade assignment, mutation calling and quality control for viral genomes","volume":"6","author":"I Aksamentov","year":"2021","journal-title":"JOSS"},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"841","DOI":"10.1093\/bioinformatics\/btq033","article-title":"BEDTools: a flexible suite of utilities for comparing genomic features","volume":"26","author":"AR Quinlan","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bioinformatics"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1186\/s12859-018-2042-4","article-title":"Antigenic cartography of H1N1 influenza viruses using sequence-based antigenic distance calculation","volume":"19","author":"CS Anderson","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Bioinformatics"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"256","DOI":"10.1186\/s12859-020-03594-3","article-title":"Implementing sequence-based antigenic distance calculation into immunological shape space model","volume":"21","author":"CS Anderson","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMC Bioinformatics"},{"issue":"18","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3881","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2006.01.010","article-title":"Quantifying influenza vaccine efficacy and antigenic distance","volume":"24","author":"V Gupta","year":"2006","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x","article-title":"Approximate Bayesian Inference for Latent Gaussian models by using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations","volume":"71","author":"H Rue","year":"2009","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2013.04.014","article-title":"Bayesian computing with INLA: New features","volume":"67","author":"TG Martins","year":"2013","journal-title":"Computational Statistics & Data Analysis"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"783","DOI":"10.1111\/rssa.12330","article-title":"Factors associated with supermarket and convenience store closure: a discrete time spatial survival modelling approach","volume":"181","author":"JL Warren","year":"2018","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc"},{"key":"pcbi.1014329.ref059","author":"M Plummer","year":"2024","journal-title":"rjags: Bayesian graphical models using MCMC"},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"985","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(1969)008<0985:ASSFPF>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"A Scoring System for Probability Forecasts of Ranked Categories","volume":"8","author":"ES Epstein","year":"1969","journal-title":"J Appl Meteor"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1014329.ref061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2007.00587.x","article-title":"Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness","volume":"69","author":"T Gneiting","year":"2007","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014329","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781136000000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014329","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T17:50:03Z","timestamp":1781200203000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014329"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Joel O.","family":"Wertheim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]},"references-count":61,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014329","relation":{},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]}}}