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However, we have seen a tendency in recent decades for high-income countries to resort to \u201cvaccine nationalism,\u201d hoarding vaccine production to the detriment of lower-income countries. In addition, vaccine nationalism can prove detrimental to hoarding countries in the long term, as inequitable global vaccine distribution during the COVID-19 risked exacerbating the rise of harmful immune-escape variants that largely counteracted the original benefits of vaccine hoarding. Thus, vaccine hoarding may create a problem of time preference for a vaccine-producing country, where countries heavily discounting the future would opt for vaccine hoarding while countries lightly discounting the future would opt for vaccine sharing. Using a novel modeling framework integrating epidemiological, evolutionary, and economic processes, we demonstrate how high temporal discounting, low levels of outgroup prosociality, and high vaccine-distribution costs for low-income countries can promote vaccine-hoarding tendencies. We further show how these factors interact with epidemiological and evolutionary parameters to incentivize vaccine sharing in different ways: in some parameter regimes, vaccine sharing helps by reducing variant infections, while in others, vaccine sharing helps by reducing the probability of initial variant emergence. As a result, the optimal fraction of vaccines a country should share in our model is a bimodal function of the pathogen\u2019s transmissibility. We thus provide a nuanced, model-based exploration of how various factors may contribute to vaccine nationalism\u2019s emergence, emphasizing the need for international organizations to coordinate global vaccination responses to future pandemics.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014466","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T17:44:25Z","timestamp":1788198265000},"page":"e1014466","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Economic factors promoting vaccine nationalism in the face of viral evolution"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-3742-9043","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ari S.","family":"Freedman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]},{"name":"University of Vermont","place":["Burlington, Vermont, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Plant Biology"]},{"name":"Vermont Complex Systems Institute, University of Vermont","place":["Burlington, Vermont, United States of America"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3868-9187","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bjarke Frost","family":"Nielsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University","place":["Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America"]},{"name":"Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]},{"name":"Roskilde University","place":["Roskilde, Denmark"],"department":["PandemiX Center"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2217-3071","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Chadi M.","family":"Saad-Roy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science, University of California","place":["Berkeley, California, United States of America"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Berkeley, California, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Integrative Biology"]},{"name":"The University of British Columbia","place":["Vancouver, Canada"],"department":["Department of Mathematics"]},{"name":"The University of British Columbia","place":["Vancouver, Canada"],"department":["Department of Department of Microbiology and Immunology"]},{"name":"Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia","place":["Vancouver, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bryan T.","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C. Jessica E.","family":"Metcalf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon A.","family":"Levin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"pcbi.1014466.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-13-2802-2_5","article-title":"Disease knows no borders: Pandemics and the politics of global health security.","volume-title":"Pandemics, publics, and politics: Staging responses to public health crises","author":"A de Bengy Puyvall\u00e9e","year":"2019"},{"key":"pcbi.1014466.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1017\/nps.2021.105","article-title":"Pandemic Nationalism","volume":"50","author":"H Mylonas","year":"2022","journal-title":"Natl Pap"},{"issue":"6505","key":"pcbi.1014466.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"749","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abe2275","article-title":"Vaccine nationalism\u2019s politics","volume":"369","author":"DP Fidler","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pcbi.1014466.ref004","unstructured":"Mathieu E, et al. 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