{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,7]],"date-time":"2026-08-07T16:12:34Z","timestamp":1786119154316,"version":"build-2736575974"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014612","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]],"date-time":"2026-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785974400000}}],"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785715200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV-025569"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-025569"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.ploscompbiol.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Comput Biol"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the staple of malaria vector control. Given their importance, insecticide resistance (IR) is extremely concerning. Understanding how ITNs simultaneously impact the evolution of IR and malaria control is of critical importance, especially with next-generation mixture ITNs (NGM-ITNs) becoming available.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We developed a mosquito population dynamics and genetics model to explore the simultaneous impact of ITNs on both malaria transmission (measured as vectorial capacity, an entomological measure of transmission) and IR evolution (resistance gene frequencies), and their interactions. We explored the long-term impact of interventions often neglected in other modelling exercises. We conducted three sets of simulations and sensitivity analyses. The first set investigated the impact of pyrethroid-only ITNs (PYR-ITNs) on IR evolution and its consequent impact on malaria vector control. The second set investigated the dual impact of NGM-ITNs in controlling malaria transmission and mitigating the evolution of resistance: IR management (IRM). The third set further considered net retention and insecticide decay.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>For both ITN types, higher ITN coverage provided greater malaria vector control than lower coverage (of the same ITN type), even when considering IR evolution. In addition, NGM-ITNs were superior to PYR-ITNs for both malaria vector control and IRM. Even when NGM-ITNs were deployed at reduced coverage (up to 30%) than PYR-ITNs (to account for their higher procurement costs), their transmission control efficacy remains superior to PYR-ITNs by providing an additional IRM benefit through reduced selection pressures. Moreover, we found that insecticide selection on male mosquitoes may be an important consideration for malaria vector control loss. While male mosquitoes do not contribute to transmission, they propagate resistance genes, and their importance in this process is a knowledge gap.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Discussion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our results highlight the need to consider IRM when evaluating NGM-ITNs, which is not adequately considered in the evaluation pipeline. Not accounting for IRM means new interventions are being undervalued, as a component of their long-term effectiveness is being overlooked.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014612","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T17:38:24Z","timestamp":1785778704000},"page":"e1014612","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Impact of insecticide resistance evolution on malaria vector control"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"22","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1480-3907","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Neil Philip","family":"Hobbs","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sumin","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thiery","family":"Masserey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nakul","family":"Chitnis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]]},"reference":[{"issue":"7572","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1038\/nature15535","article-title":"The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015","volume":"526","author":"S Bhatt","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"3","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2015.11.010","article-title":"Insecticide Resistance in African Anopheles Mosquitoes: A Worsening Situation that Needs Urgent Action to Maintain Malaria Control","volume":"32","author":"H Ranson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"issue":"10029","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1785","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)00417-1","article-title":"Averting a malaria disaster: will insecticide resistance derail malaria control?","volume":"387","author":"J Hemingway","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref004","unstructured":"WHO. World malaria report 2023. 2023."},{"issue":"6","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.3000633","article-title":"Mapping trends in insecticide resistance phenotypes in African malaria vectors","volume":"18","author":"PA Hancock","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref006","unstructured":"WHO. Global plan for insecticide resistance management in malaria vectors. 131. 2012."},{"issue":"10375","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"435","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(22)02319-4","article-title":"Efficacy of pyriproxyfen-pyrethroid long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and chlorfenapyr-pyrethroid LLINs compared with pyrethroid-only LLINs for malaria control in Benin: a cluster-randomised, superiority trial","volume":"401","author":"M Accrombessi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(23)00420-6","article-title":"Effectiveness of long-lasting insecticidal nets with pyriproxyfen-pyrethroid, chlorfenapyr-pyrethroid, or piperonyl butoxide-pyrethroid versus pyrethroid only against malaria in Tanzania: final-year results of a four-arm, single-blind, cluster-randomised trial","volume":"24","author":"JF Mosha","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref009","article-title":"Effects of next-generation, dual-active-ingredient, long-lasting insecticidal net deployment on insecticide resistance in malaria vectors in Tanzania: an analysis of a 3-year, cluster-randomised controlled trial","volume":"7","author":"LA Messenger","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"936","DOI":"10.1111\/eva.13546","article-title":"Insecticide resistance management strategies for public health control of mosquitoes exhibiting polygenic resistance: A comparison of sequences, rotations, and mixtures","volume":"16","author":"NP Hobbs","year":"2023","journal-title":"Evol. Appl"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-022-04083-z","article-title":"Modelling new insecticide-treated bed nets for malaria-vector control: how to strategically manage resistance?","volume":"21","author":"PG Madgwick","year":"2022","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110383","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2020.110383","article-title":"Determinants of optimal insecticide resistance management strategies","volume":"503","author":"JC Helps","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2012.09.001","article-title":"Heterogeneity of selection and the evolution of resistance","volume":"28","author":"REX Consortium.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1012944","article-title":"Simulating dynamic insecticide selection pressures for resistance management in mosquitoes assuming polygenic resistance","volume":"21","author":"NP Hobbs","year":"2025","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007485300014346","article-title":"Theoretical models of the use of insecticide mixtures for the management of resistance","volume":"75","author":"CF Curtis","year":"1985","journal-title":"Bull Entomol Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-36356-9","article-title":"Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria","volume":"14","author":"HJT Unwin","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005327","article-title":"A Two-Locus Model of the Evolution of Insecticide Resistance to Inform and Optimise Public Health Insecticide Deployment Strategies","volume":"13","author":"B Levick","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"issue":"8","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1008121","article-title":"Vector genetics, insecticide resistance and gene drives: An agent-based modeling approach to evaluate malaria transmission and elimination","volume":"16","author":"P Selvaraj","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100047","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crpvbd.2021.100047","article-title":"Systematic review of the entomological impact of insecticide-treated nets evaluated using experimental hut trials in Africa","volume":"1","author":"RK Nash","year":"2021","journal-title":"Curr Res Parasitol Vector Borne Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-1-17","article-title":"Loss of protection with insecticide-treated nets against pyrethroid-resistant Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes once nets become holed: an experimental hut study","volume":"1","author":"S Irish","year":"2008","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"4","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"408","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0269-283X.2004.00525.x","article-title":"Could insecticide-treated cattle reduce Afrotropical malaria transmission? Effects of deltamethrin-treated Zebu on Anopheles arabiensis behaviour and survival in Ethiopia","volume":"18","author":"T Habtewold","year":"2004","journal-title":"Med Vet Entomol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-020-04092-4","article-title":"An overview of malarial Anopheles mosquito survival estimates in relation to methodology","volume":"13","author":"J Matthews","year":"2020","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref023","author":"B. Lambert","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. A Meta-analysis of Longevity Estimates of Mosquito Vectors of Disease"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2019.02.008","article-title":"Mathematics of an epidemiology-genetics model for assessing the role of insecticides resistance on malaria transmission dynamics","volume":"312","author":"J Mohammed-Awel","year":"2019","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-3025-z","article-title":"Modelling the impact of insecticide-based control interventions on the evolution of insecticide resistance and disease transmission","volume":"11","author":"S Barbosa","year":"2018","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref026","unstructured":"Carnell R. Lhs: Latin Hypercube Samples. 2022."},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref027","volume-title":"epiR: Tools for the Analysis of Epidemiological Data","author":"M Stevenson","year":"2024"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref028","article-title":"Insecticide-Treated Bednet (ITN) Reference Price List for Budgeting Purposes","author":"The Global Fund","year":"2025"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11162","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-025-66130-y","article-title":"Cascades of effectiveness of next-generation insecticide-treated nets against malaria, from entomological trials to real-life conditions","volume":"16","author":"C Champagne","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"2","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.1007\/s00285-023-01949-x","article-title":"Can insecticide resistance increase malaria transmission? A genetics-epidemiology mathematical modeling approach","volume":"87","author":"J Mohammed-Awel","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Math Biol"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref031","unstructured":"WHO. WHO Guidelines for Malaria. (2023)."},{"issue":"10233","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1394","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30745-5","article-title":"Control of malaria vectors and management of insecticide resistance through universal coverage with next-generation insecticide-treated nets","volume":"395","author":"GF Killeen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref033","article-title":"Exploring operational requirements of mixtures for insecticide resistance management in public health using a mathematical model assuming polygenic resistance. Preprint","author":"NP Hobbs","year":"2024"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref034","article-title":"Review: Improving our knowledge of male mosquito biology in relation to genetic control programmes","author":"RS Lees","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"1","key":"pcbi.1014612.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-019-3872-2","article-title":"Anopheles gambiae populations from Burkina Faso show minimal delayed mortality after exposure to insecticide-treated nets","volume":"13","author":"A Hughes","year":"2020","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"pcbi.1014612.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.77634","article-title":"The influence of biological, epidemiological, and treatment factors on the establishment and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum","volume":"11","author":"T Masserey","year":"2022","journal-title":"Elife"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014612","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]],"date-time":"2026-08-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785974400000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Computational Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014612","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,6]],"date-time":"2026-08-06T17:52:38Z","timestamp":1786038758000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014612"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Claudio Jos\u00e9","family":"Struchiner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1014612","relation":{},"ISSN":["1553-7358"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1553-7358","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]]}}}