{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T15:24:33Z","timestamp":1782228273296,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]],"date-time":"2022-10-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1665705600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013362","name":"Swiss Cancer Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["KFS-4385-02-2018"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["KFS-4385-02-2018"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013362","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosglobalpublichealth.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLOS Glob Public Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019\u20132025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328\/100,000, respectively (&lt;1% change). These projected trends are expected for most cancer sites. The annual number of cancers is expected to increase from 45,676 to 52,552 (+15%), more so for men (+18%) than for women (+11%). These increases are almost entirely due to projected changes in population age structure (+12% for men and +6% for women) and population growth (+6% for both sexes). The rise in numbers of expected cancers for each site is forecast to range from 4.15% (thyroid in men) to 26% (bladder in men). While ranking of the three most frequent cancers will remain unchanged for men (1<jats:sup>st<\/jats:sup> prostate, 2<jats:sup>nd<\/jats:sup> lung, 3<jats:sup>rd<\/jats:sup> colon-rectum), colorectal cancer will overtake by 2025 lung cancer as the second most common female cancer in Switzerland, behind breast cancer. Effective and sustained prevention measures, as well as infrastructural interventions, are required to counter the increase in cancer cases and prevent any potential shortage of professionals in cancer care delivery.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0001112","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]],"date-time":"2022-10-14T17:25:59Z","timestamp":1665768359000},"page":"e0001112","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pgph.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Predicting the burden of cancer in Switzerland up to 2025"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"2","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4519-094X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bastien","family":"Tr\u00e4chsel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7847-7728","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Elisabetta","family":"Rapiti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3837-8477","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Anita","family":"Feller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Valentin","family":"Rousson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isabella","family":"Locatelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9750-2709","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jean-Luc","family":"Bulliard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3030","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.21731","article-title":"The global health burden of infection-associated cancers in the year 2002","volume":"118","author":"D. M. Parkin","year":"2006","journal-title":"International Journal of Cancer"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref002","article-title":"Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020","volume":"11","author":"B Moller","year":"2002","journal-title":"European Journal of Cancer Prevention"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.2307\/2531004","article-title":"The Estimation of Age, Period and Cohort Effects for Vital Rates","volume":"39","author":"T. R. Holford","year":"1983","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3018","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2764","article-title":"Age-period-cohort models for the Lexis diagram","volume":"26","author":"B. Carstensen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6603746","article-title":"The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020","volume":"96","author":"H. M\u00f8ller","year":"2007","journal-title":"British Journal of Cancer"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1034","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2004.00259.x","article-title":"Bayesian Extrapolation of Space-Time Trends in Cancer Registry Data","volume":"60","author":"V. Schmid","year":"2004","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101935","DOI":"10.1016\/j.canep.2021.101935","article-title":"Projections of the future burden of cancer in Australia using Bayesian age-period-cohort models","volume":"72","author":"J. K. Cameron","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiology"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e02515","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2019.e02515","article-title":"The utility of joinpoint regression for estimating population parameters given changes in population structure","volume":"5","author":"D. Gillis","year":"2019","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e214708","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2021.4708","article-title":"Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040","volume":"4","author":"L. Rahib","year":"2021","journal-title":"JAMA Network Open"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1460458220983878","DOI":"10.1177\/1460458220983878","article-title":"Prediction of cancer incidence rates for the European continent using machine learning models","volume":"27","author":"B. Sekeroglu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Health Informatics Journal"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref011","article-title":"Comparison of Statistical Models to Predict Cancer Incidence in Switzerland","author":"B. Tr\u00e4chsel","year":"2022","journal-title":"Manuscript submitted for publication"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1097\/CEJ.0000000000000380","article-title":"Evaluation of completeness of case ascertainment in Swiss cancer registration","volume":"26","author":"M. Lorez","year":"2017","journal-title":"European Journal of Cancer Prevention"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"978","DOI":"10.1016\/0959-8049(94)90127-9","article-title":"Estimating the incidence of cancers in Switzerland: 1983\u20131987","volume":"30","author":"L. Raymond","year":"1994","journal-title":"European Journal of Cancer"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-14-102","article-title":"Planning for the future: cancer incidence projections in Switzerland up to 2019","volume":"14","author":"E. Rapiti","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691218632","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis","author":"J. D. Hamilton","year":"1994"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref016","volume-title":"Cancer incidence in five continents","author":"C. Waterhouse JAH","year":"1976"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref017","volume-title":"Les sc\u00e9narios de l\u2019\u00e9volution de la population de la Suisse et des cantons 2020\u20132050","author":"BFS","year":"2020"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref018","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2020"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.2307\/2346910","article-title":"Algorithm AS 154: An algorithm for exact maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive-moving average models by means of Kalman filtering","volume":"29","author":"G Gardner","year":"1980","journal-title":"Applied Statistics"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref020","first-page":"279","article-title":"Empirical testing of standards for the age adjustment of death rates by the direct method","volume":"38","author":"M Spiegelman","year":"1966","journal-title":"Human Biology"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a121443","article-title":"COMPONENTS OF THE CRUDE RISK RATIO","volume":"96","author":"Olli S. Miettinen","year":"1972","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref022","volume-title":"Le cancer en Suisse, rapport 2021\u2014Etat des lieux et \u00e9volutions","year":"2021"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref023","article-title":"Breast cancer screening programmes in Switzerland, 2010\u20132018","author":"J.-L. Bulliard","year":"2021","journal-title":"Tech. rep., Unisant\u00e9"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref024","first-page":"1","article-title":"Recent incidence and surgery trends for prostate cancer: Towards an attenuation of overdiagnosis and overtreatment?","volume":"14","author":"on behalf of the NICER Working Group","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0179387","article-title":"Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of thyroid cancer: A population-based temporal trend study","volume":"12","author":"S. Jegerlehner","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref026","article-title":"Incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer from 1980 to 2016","author":"S. Wirth","year":"2021","journal-title":"Swiss Med Wkly"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1161","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jid.2016.01.035","article-title":"The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma: Projections of Incidence Rates and Numbers of New Cases in Six Susceptible Populations through 2031","volume":"136","author":"D. C. Whiteman","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Investigative Dermatology"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1528","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.31141","article-title":"Generational shift in melanoma incidence and mortality in Queensland, Australia, 1995\u20132014","volume":"142","author":"J. F. Aitken","year":"2018","journal-title":"International Journal of Cancer"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2021.04.029","article-title":"Epidemiology of cutaneous melanoma and keratinocyte cancer in white populations 1943\u20132036","volume":"152","author":"C. Garbe","year":"2021","journal-title":"European Journal of Cancer"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref030","article-title":"Population on 1 January by age group and sex","author":"Union European Eurostat","year":"2022","journal-title":"Population on 1 January by age group and sex"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref031","article-title":"The devil is in the details: an analysis of patient rights in Swiss cancer registries","author":"A. Martani","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Medical Ethics"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2099","DOI":"10.53738\/REVMED.2020.16.713.2099","article-title":"Revue M\u00e9dicale Suisse: Nouvelles exigences l\u00e9gales dans le domaine de l\u2019enregistrement du cancer: opportunit\u00e9s et d\u00e9fis","volume":"16","author":"J.-L. Bulliard","year":"2020","journal-title":"Revue M\u00e9dicale Suisse"},{"key":"pgph.0001112.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.34029","article-title":"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer diagnosis based on pathology notifications: A comparison across the Nordic countries during 2020","volume":"151","author":"A. L. Johansson","year":"2022","journal-title":"International Journal of Cancer"}],"container-title":["PLOS Global Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pgph.0001112","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]],"date-time":"2022-10-14T17:26:47Z","timestamp":1665768407000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pgph.0001112"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Nnodimele Onuigbo","family":"Atulomah","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pgph.0001112","relation":{},"ISSN":["2767-3375"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2767-3375","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,14]]}}}