{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T21:06:42Z","timestamp":1790888802368,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,4]],"date-time":"2018-09-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1536019200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosmedicine.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Med"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002644","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,4]],"date-time":"2018-09-04T13:25:50Z","timestamp":1536067550000},"page":"e1002644","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":106,"title":["Addition of a polygenic risk score, mammographic density, and endogenous hormones to existing breast cancer risk prediction models: A nested case\u2013control study"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8260-8508","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Xuehong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Megan","family":"Rice","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6986-7046","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shelley S.","family":"Tworoger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bernard A.","family":"Rosner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3961-6609","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"A. Heather","family":"Eliassen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rulla M.","family":"Tamimi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amit D.","family":"Joshi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7137-7281","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sara","family":"Lindstrom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jing","family":"Qian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7307-0291","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Graham A.","family":"Colditz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Walter C.","family":"Willett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4472-8103","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Peter","family":"Kraft","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susan E.","family":"Hankinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,4]]},"reference":[{"issue":"18","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1371","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/90.18.1371","article-title":"Tamoxifen for prevention of breast cancer: report of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 Study","volume":"90","author":"B Fisher","year":"1998","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"18","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1541","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/91.18.1541","article-title":"Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence","volume":"91","author":"JP Costantino","year":"1999","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"24","key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1879","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/81.24.1879","article-title":"Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually","volume":"81","author":"MH Gail","year":"1989","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549-013-2719-3","article-title":"Validation of Rosner-Colditz breast cancer incidence model using an independent data set, the California Teachers Study","volume":"142","author":"BA Rosner","year":"2013","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res Treat"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"950","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/152.10.950","article-title":"Cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 70 years according to risk factor status: data from the Nurses\u2019 Health Study","volume":"152","author":"GA Colditz","year":"2000","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"856","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(03)00124-0","article-title":"Breast cancer risk prediction with a log-incidence model: evaluation of accuracy","volume":"56","author":"B Rockhill","year":"2003","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"358","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/93.5.358","article-title":"Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention","volume":"93","author":"B Rockhill","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"353","DOI":"10.1038\/ng.2563","article-title":"Large-scale genotyping identifies 41 new loci associated with breast cancer risk","volume":"45","author":"K Michailidou","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nat Genet"},{"issue":"15","key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1178","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djm062","article-title":"Endogenous hormone levels, mammographic density, and subsequent risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women","volume":"99","author":"RM Tamimi","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"986","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0907727","article-title":"Performance of common genetic variants in breast-cancer risk models","volume":"362","author":"S Wacholder","year":"2010","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"13","key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"959","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djp130","article-title":"Value of adding single-nucleotide polymorphism genotypes to a breast cancer risk model","volume":"101","author":"MH Gail","year":"2009","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"17","key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1215","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djj332","article-title":"Projecting absolute invasive breast cancer risk in white women with a model that includes mammographic density","volume":"98","author":"J Chen","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"21","key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1605","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djq413","article-title":"Genetics and breast cancer risk prediction\u2014are we there yet?","volume":"102","author":"NR Cook","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1314","DOI":"10.1158\/1055-9965.EPI-13-1240","article-title":"Enhancement of mammographic density measures in breast cancer risk prediction","volume":"23","author":"A Cheddad","year":"2014","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr1829","article-title":"Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction","volume":"9","author":"CM Vachon","year":"2007","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1295","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoncol.2016.1025","article-title":"Breast cancer risk from modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors among white women in the United States","volume":"2","author":"P Maas","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA Oncol"},{"issue":"11","key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/dju305","article-title":"Combined associations of genetic and environmental risk factors: implications for prevention of breast cancer","volume":"106","author":"M Garcia-Closas","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549-017-4391-5","article-title":"Breast cancer risk prediction: an update to the Rosner\u2013Colditz breast cancer incidence model","volume":"166","author":"MS Rice","year":"2017","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res Treat"},{"issue":"15","key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4810","DOI":"10.1158\/0008-5472.CAN-13-0665","article-title":"A 20-year prospective study of plasma prolactin as a risk marker of breast cancer development","volume":"73","author":"SS Tworoger","year":"2013","journal-title":"Cancer Res"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1009","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(13)70301-2","article-title":"Sex hormones and risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women: a collaborative reanalysis of individual participant data from seven prospective studies","volume":"14","author":"TJ Key","year":"2013","journal-title":"Lancet Oncol"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R19","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr3394","article-title":"Premenopausal endogenous steroid hormones and breast cancer risk: results from the Nurses\u2019 Health Study II","volume":"15","author":"RT Fortner","year":"2013","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1422","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdu150","article-title":"Circulating prolactin and breast cancer risk among pre- and postmenopausal women in the EPIC cohort","volume":"25","author":"K Tikk","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ann Oncol"},{"issue":"Pt A","key":"ref23","first-page":"49","article-title":"Steroid hormone measurements from different types of assays in relation to body mass index and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of eighteen prospective studies","volume":"99","author":"TJ Key","year":"2015","journal-title":"Steroids"},{"issue":"28","key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3111","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2014.56.1068","article-title":"Inclusion of endogenous hormone levels in risk prediction models of postmenopausal breast cancer","volume":"32","author":"SS Tworoger","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol"},{"issue":"15","key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4181","DOI":"10.1158\/1078-0432.CCR-16-3011","article-title":"Added value of serum hormone measurements in risk prediction models for breast cancer for women not using exogenous hormones: results from the EPIC cohort","volume":"23","author":"A Husing","year":"2017","journal-title":"Clin Cancer Res"},{"issue":"2","key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"603","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549-017-4430-2","article-title":"Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones","volume":"166","author":"Y Shieh","year":"2017","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res Treat"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"388","DOI":"10.1038\/nrc1608","article-title":"The Nurses\u2019 Health Study: lifestyle and health among women","volume":"5","author":"GA Colditz","year":"2005","journal-title":"Nat Rev Cancer"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R67","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr2128","article-title":"Comparison of molecular phenotypes of ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer","volume":"10","author":"RM Tamimi","year":"2008","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djm270","article-title":"Comparison of estrogen receptor results from pathology reports with results from central laboratory testing","volume":"100","author":"LC Collins","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1501","DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-015-0640-2","article-title":"Urinary melatonin and risk of ovarian cancer","volume":"26","author":"EM Poole","year":"2015","journal-title":"Cancer Causes Control"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R314","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr998","article-title":"Body fatness during childhood and adolescence and incidence of breast cancer in premenopausal women: a prospective cohort study","volume":"7","author":"HJ Baer","year":"2005","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"23","key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5271","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.26217","article-title":"A review of body size and breast cancer risk in Hispanic and African American women","volume":"117","author":"KR Sexton","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref33","first-page":"1039","article-title":"The Nurses\u2019 Health Study","volume":"78","author":"CF Belanger","year":"1978","journal-title":"Am J Nurs"},{"issue":"17","key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1297","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/87.17.1297","article-title":"Alcohol, height, and adiposity in relation to estrogen and prolactin levels in postmenopausal women","volume":"87","author":"SE Hankinson","year":"1995","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"24","key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1856","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djh336","article-title":"Endogenous estrogen, androgen, and progesterone concentrations and breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women","volume":"96","author":"SA Missmer","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"17","key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1292","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/90.17.1292","article-title":"Plasma sex steroid hormone levels and risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women","volume":"90","author":"SE Hankinson","year":"1998","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e92212","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0092212","article-title":"Joint effects of colorectal cancer susceptibility loci, circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and risk of colorectal cancer","volume":"9","author":"LT Hiraki","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R100","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr3041","article-title":"Nondense mammographic area and risk of breast cancer","volume":"13","author":"A Pettersson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"883","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549-012-2391-z","article-title":"Postmenopausal plasma sex hormone levels and breast cancer risk over 20 years of follow-up","volume":"137","author":"X Zhang","year":"2013","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res Treat"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"188","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2008.01062.x","article-title":"Power and sample size estimation for the Wilcoxon rank sum test with application to comparisons of C statistics from alternative prediction models","volume":"65","author":"B Rosner","year":"2009","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R55","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr2110","article-title":"Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses\u2019 Health Study","volume":"10","author":"B Rosner","year":"2008","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e72311","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0072311","article-title":"An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population","volume":"8","author":"AP Klein","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"6","key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"641","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080603","article-title":"Converting relative risks to absolute risks: a graphical approach","volume":"8","author":"WD Dupont","year":"1989","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i6","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.i6","article-title":"Net benefit approaches to the evaluation of prediction models, molecular markers, and diagnostic tests","volume":"352","author":"AJ Vickers","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djv036","article-title":"Prediction of breast cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants","volume":"107","author":"N Mavaddat","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"7","key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1898","DOI":"10.1038\/bjc.2014.64","article-title":"Combined effects of endogenous sex hormone levels and mammographic density on postmenopausal breast cancer risk: results from the Breakthrough Generations Study","volume":"110","author":"MJ Schoemaker","year":"2014","journal-title":"Br J Cancer"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"601","DOI":"10.1136\/jmedgenet-2011-100716","article-title":"Prediction of breast cancer risk by genetic risk factors, overall and by hormone receptor status","volume":"49","author":"A Husing","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Med Genet"},{"issue":"21","key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1618","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djq388","article-title":"Assessment of clinical validity of a breast cancer risk model combining genetic and clinical information","volume":"102","author":"ME Mealiffe","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/dju397","article-title":"The contributions of breast density and common genetic variation to breast cancer risk","volume":"107","author":"CM Vachon","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"5","key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-148-5-200803040-00004","article-title":"Using clinical factors and mammographic breast density to estimate breast cancer risk: development and validation of a new predictive model","volume":"148","author":"JA Tice","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R25","DOI":"10.1186\/bcr3110","article-title":"Breast cancer risk prediction and individualised screening based on common genetic variation and breast density measurement","volume":"14","author":"H Darabi","year":"2012","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"595","DOI":"10.1097\/AOG.0b013e318265df42","article-title":"A sustained decline in postmenopausal hormone use: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999\u20132010","volume":"120","author":"BL Sprague","year":"2012","journal-title":"Obstet Gynecol"},{"issue":"9354","key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"296","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(03)12342-2","article-title":"Overview of the main outcomes in breast-cancer prevention trials","volume":"361","author":"J Cuzick","year":"2003","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"23","key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2189","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.281.23.2189","article-title":"The effect of raloxifene on risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women: results from the MORE randomized trial. Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation","volume":"281","author":"SR Cummings","year":"1999","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1376","DOI":"10.1210\/jc.2012-3780","article-title":"Challenges to the measurement of estradiol: an endocrine society position statement","volume":"98","author":"W Rosner","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Clin Endocrinol Metab"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4542","DOI":"10.1210\/jc.2010-1314","article-title":"Toward excellence in testosterone testing: a consensus statement","volume":"95","author":"W Rosner","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Clin Endocrinol Metab"},{"issue":"4","key":"ref57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1038\/ng.3242","article-title":"Genome-wide association analysis of more than 120,000 individuals identifies 15 new susceptibility loci for breast cancer","volume":"47","author":"K Michailidou","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nat Genet"},{"issue":"9","key":"ref58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1038","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2014.57.2750","article-title":"Prospective approach to breast cancer risk prediction in African American women: the black women\u2019s health study model","volume":"33","author":"DA Boggs","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol"},{"issue":"3","key":"ref59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1007\/s10549-015-3641-7","article-title":"SNPs and breast cancer risk prediction for African American and Hispanic women","volume":"154","author":"R Allman","year":"2015","journal-title":"Breast Cancer Res Treat"}],"container-title":["PLOS Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002644","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2020,5,9]],"date-time":"2020-05-09T12:52:47Z","timestamp":1589028767000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002644"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Wei","family":"Zheng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,4]]},"references-count":59,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,4]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002644","relation":{},"ISSN":["1549-1676"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1549-1676","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,9,4]]}}}