{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,25]],"date-time":"2026-07-25T15:05:29Z","timestamp":1784991929851,"version":"3.55.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,5]],"date-time":"2024-02-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1707091200000}}],"reference-count":79,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,22]],"date-time":"2024-01-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1705881600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004543","name":"China Scholarship Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["202006380055"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202006380055"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004543","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004543","name":"China Scholarship Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["202006240087"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202006240087"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004543","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Monash Graduate Scholarship"},{"name":"Monash International Tuition Scholarship"},{"name":"Monash Graduate Scholarship"},{"name":"Monash International Tuition Scholarship"},{"name":"NHMRC e-Asia Joint Research Program Grant","award":["GNT2000581"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT2000581"]}]},{"name":"German Federal Ministry of Education and Research","award":["01LP1907A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["01LP1907A"]}]},{"name":"German Federal Ministry of Education and Research","award":["01LP1907A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["01LP1907A"]}]},{"name":"VicHealth Postdoctoral Research Fellowships 2022"},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council","award":["GNT2009866"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT2009866"]}]},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council","award":["GNT1163693"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT1163693"]}]},{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council","award":["GNT2008813"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GNT2008813"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council UK","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["MR\/R013349\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/R013349\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000270","name":"Natural Environment Research Council UK","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NE\/R009384\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/R009384\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 project, Exhaustion","award":["820655"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["820655"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001505","name":"Health Research Council of New Zealand","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001505","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001505","name":"Health Research Council of New Zealand","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001505","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosmedicine.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Med"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>More intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected in the future under a warming climate scenario, but little is known about their mortality effect pattern across countries and over decades. We aim to evaluate the TC-specific mortality risks, periods of concern (POC) and characterize the spatiotemporal pattern and exposure-response (ER) relationships on a multicountry scale.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods and findings<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality among the general population were collected from 494 locations in 18 countries or territories during 1980 to 2019. Daily TC exposures were defined when the maximum sustained windspeed associated with a TC was \u226534 knots using a parametric wind field model at a 0.5\u00b0 \u00d7 0.5\u00b0 resolution. We first estimated the TC-specific mortality risks and POC using an advanced flexible statistical framework of mixed Poisson model, accounting for the population changes, natural variation, seasonal and day of the week effects. Then, a mixed meta-regression model was used to pool the TC-specific mortality risks to estimate the overall and country-specific ER relationships of TC characteristics (windspeed, rainfall, and year) with mortality. Overall, 47.7 million all-cause, 15.5 million cardiovascular, and 4.9 million respiratory deaths and 382 TCs were included in our analyses. An overall average POC of around 20 days was observed for TC-related all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality, with relatively longer POC for the United States of America, Brazil, and Taiwan (&gt;30 days). The TC-specific relative risks (RR) varied substantially, ranging from 1.04 to 1.42, 1.07 to 1.77, and 1.12 to 1.92 among the top 100 TCs with highest RRs for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. At country level, relatively higher TC-related mortality risks were observed in Guatemala, Brazil, and New Zealand for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. We found an overall monotonically increasing and approximately linear ER curve of TC-related maximum sustained windspeed and cumulative rainfall with mortality, with heterogeneous patterns across countries and regions. The TC-related mortality risks were generally decreasing from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, whereas potentially increasing trends in TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. To minimize the TC-related health burdens, targeted strategies are particularly needed for different countries and regions, integrating epidemiological evidence on region-specific POC and ER curves that consider across-TC variability.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,22]],"date-time":"2024-01-22T18:31:15Z","timestamp":1705948275000},"page":"e1004341","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8871-1947","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Wenzhong","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7291-4475","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Zhengyu","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9570-4147","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yiwen","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2135-4436","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Thomas","family":"Vogt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4407-0409","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ben","family":"Armstrong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenhua","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1906-8614","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rongbin","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pei","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8599-7118","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yanming","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2271-3568","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Antonio","family":"Gasparrini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Hundessa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Lavigne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tomas","family":"Molina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tobias","family":"Geiger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8530-4809","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yue Leon","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christian","family":"Otto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Hales","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Farnaz","family":"Pourzand","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2362-3940","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shih-Chun","family":"Pan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ke","family":"Ju","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3413-5830","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Elizabeth A.","family":"Ritchie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shanshan","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1766-6592","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yuming","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"MCC Collaborators","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"pmed.1004341.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"665","DOI":"10.1007\/s10902-017-9916-4","article-title":"Impacts of Flooding and Flood Preparedness on Subjective Well-Being: A Monetisation of the Tangible and Intangible Impacts.","volume":"20","author":"P Hudson","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Happiness Stud."},{"issue":"11","key":"pmed.1004341.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111306","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP12241","article-title":"Invited Perspective: Uncovering the Hidden Burden of Tropical Cyclones on Public Health Locally and Worldwide","volume":"130","author":"RM Parks","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-10-185-2018","article-title":"A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT).","volume":"10","author":"T Geiger","year":"2018","journal-title":"Earth Syst Sci Data"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1108\/JHLSCM-12-2019-0080","article-title":"Supply chain risks in humanitarian relief operations: a case of Cyclone Idai relief efforts in Zimbabwe.","volume":"11","author":"F Chari","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Humanit Logist Supply Chain Manag"},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"362","DOI":"10.1007\/s13753-019-00226-0","article-title":"The Impact of Hurricane Strikes on Short-Term Local Economic Activity: Evidence from Nightlight Images in the Dominican Republic.","volume":"10","author":"OA Ishizawa","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Disaster Risk Sci."},{"issue":"6528","key":"pmed.1004341.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb9038","article-title":"Recent migration of tropical cyclones toward coasts","volume":"371","author":"S Wang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E303","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-18-0194.1","article-title":"Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming.","volume":"101","author":"T Knutson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Bull Am Meteorol Soc."},{"issue":"10","key":"pmed.1004341.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"861","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-021-01157-9","article-title":"Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure","volume":"11","author":"T Geiger","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Clim Change"},{"issue":"10","key":"pmed.1004341.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"946","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.1682","article-title":"Association of Tropical Cyclones With County-Level Mortality in the US","volume":"327","author":"RM Parks","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1545","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-021-21777-1","article-title":"Tropical cyclone exposure is associated with increased hospitalization rates in older adults.","volume":"12","author":"RM Parks","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000001337","article-title":"Tropical Cyclone Exposures and Risks of Emergency Medicare Hospital Admission for Cardiorespiratory Diseases in 175 Urban United States Counties, 1999\u20132010.","volume":"32","author":"M Yan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"issue":"6","key":"pmed.1004341.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1118","DOI":"10.1177\/00333549211047235","article-title":"The Epidemiology and Geographic Patterns of Natural Disaster and Extreme Weather Mortality by Race and Ethnicity, United States, 1999\u20132018","volume":"137","author":"JD Sharpe","year":"2022","journal-title":"Public Health Rep"},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1017\/S1049023X22000541","article-title":"Where are People Dying in Disasters, and Where is it Being Studied? A Mapping Review of Scientific Articles on Tropical Cyclone Mortality in English and Chinese.","volume":"37","author":"C Dresser","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prehosp Disaster Med."},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.06.197","article-title":"Flood-induced mortality across the globe: Spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors","volume":"643","author":"P Hu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153753","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2022.153753","article-title":"Assessing short-term and long-term mental health effects among older adults after Hurricane Sandy","volume":"825","author":"TF Begum","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"6","key":"pmed.1004341.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1695","DOI":"10.1111\/jgs.17702","article-title":"Hospitalizations for chronic conditions following hurricanes among older adults: A self-controlled case series analysis.","volume":"70","author":"SA Bell","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Am Geriatr Soc"},{"issue":"8","key":"pmed.1004341.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"86001","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP12158","article-title":"Health Effects of Cyclones: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Studies","volume":"131","author":"W Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"issue":"7","key":"pmed.1004341.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1050","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2019.305015","article-title":"Causes of excess deaths in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria: a time-series estimation.","volume":"109","author":"R Cruz-Cano","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"issue":"11","key":"pmed.1004341.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e478","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(18)30209-2","article-title":"Differential and persistent risk of excess mortality from Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico: a time-series analysis","volume":"2","author":"C Santos-Burgoa","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"issue":"14","key":"pmed.1004341.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1491","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2018.10929","article-title":"Use of death counts from vital statistics to calculate excess deaths in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria","volume":"320","author":"AR Santos-Lozada","year":"2018","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1740-9713.2018.01102.x","volume-title":"Estimating the death toll of Hurricane Maria","author":"R Rivera","year":"2018"},{"issue":"2","key":"pmed.1004341.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsa1803972","article-title":"Mortality in puerto rico after hurricane maria","volume":"379","author":"N Kishore","year":"2018","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"issue":"8","key":"pmed.1004341.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e058315","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2021-058315","article-title":"Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis.","volume":"12","author":"M Marazzi","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMJ Open."},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"346","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000001445","article-title":"A Flexible Statistical Framework for Estimating Excess Mortality.","volume":"33","author":"RJ Acosta","year":"2022","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"issue":"8","key":"pmed.1004341.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e222534","DOI":"10.1001\/jamahealthforum.2022.2534","article-title":"Changes in Migration and Mortality Among Patients With Kidney Failure in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria","volume":"3","author":"M Rivera-Hernandez","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Health Forum"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105825","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2020.105825","article-title":"Tropical cyclones and risk of preterm birth: A retrospective analysis of 20 million births across 378 US counties.","volume":"140","author":"S Sun","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ Int"},{"issue":"2","key":"pmed.1004341.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"449","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxab047","article-title":"Integrated causal-predictive machine learning models for tropical cyclone epidemiology.","volume":"24","author":"RC Nethery","year":"2023","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"issue":"9991","key":"pmed.1004341.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)62114-0","article-title":"Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study","volume":"386","author":"A Gasparrini","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"7","key":"pmed.1004341.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e415","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(21)00081-4","article-title":"Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study","volume":"5","author":"Q Zhao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"issue":"2","key":"pmed.1004341.ref030","first-page":"12","article-title":"Accuracy of coded cause of death data: a study based on primary liver cancer","volume":"4","author":"H Nguyen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Tasman Med J"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref031","unstructured":"Mortality Collection data dictionary: New Zealand Ministry of Health. 2021. Available from: https:\/\/www.health.govt.nz\/publication\/mortality-collection-data-dictionary."},{"issue":"spe","key":"pmed.1004341.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1590\/0103-11042017s09","article-title":"Uma avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do Sistema de Informa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre Mortalidade.","volume":"41","author":"RMd Morais","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sa\u00fade em Debate."},{"issue":"5","key":"pmed.1004341.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"726","DOI":"10.17269\/s41997-023-00782-5","article-title":"Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada.","volume":"114","author":"C Hebbern","year":"2023","journal-title":"Can J Public Health"},{"issue":"7","key":"pmed.1004341.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2106","DOI":"10.3390\/su11072106","article-title":"Estimation of Gridded Population and GDP Scenarios with Spatially Explicit Statistical Downscaling.","volume":"11","author":"D Murakami","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"issue":"9","key":"pmed.1004341.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3432","DOI":"10.1175\/2008MWR2395.1","article-title":"A Revised Hurricane Pressure\u2013Wind Model.","volume":"136","author":"G. Holland","year":"2008","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev."},{"issue":"4","key":"pmed.1004341.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1410","article-title":"Global trends in tropical cyclone risk","volume":"2","author":"P Peduzzi","year":"2012","journal-title":"Nat Clim Change"},{"issue":"12","key":"pmed.1004341.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2020EF001616","article-title":"Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales.","volume":"8","author":"S Lange","year":"2020","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future."},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1175\/2009BAMS2755.1","article-title":"The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying Tropical Cyclone Data.","volume":"91","author":"KR Knapp","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bull Am Meteorol Soc."},{"issue":"7","key":"pmed.1004341.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3085","DOI":"10.5194\/gmd-12-3085-2019","article-title":"CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform.","volume":"12","author":"G Aznar-Siguan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geosci Model Dev"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref040","article-title":"ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present.","volume":"10","author":"H Hersbach","year":"2018","journal-title":"Copernicus climate change service (c3s) climate data store (cds)."},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1007\/s40572-022-00333-z","article-title":"Exposure Assessment for Tropical Cyclone Epidemiology.","volume":"9","author":"GB Anderson","year":"2022","journal-title":"Curr Environ Health Rep."},{"issue":"10","key":"pmed.1004341.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3453","DOI":"10.1175\/2011JCLI4208.1","article-title":"An Examination of Tropical Cyclone Position, Intensity, and Intensity Life Cycle within Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets","volume":"25","author":"BA Schenkel","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Climate"},{"issue":"5","key":"pmed.1004341.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1651","DOI":"10.1002\/2014JD022417","article-title":"Tropical cyclones in the North American Regional Reanalysis: An assessment of spatial biases in location, intensity, and structure","volume":"120","author":"SE Zick","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Geophys Res Atmos"},{"issue":"6","key":"pmed.1004341.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2185","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00823.1","article-title":"The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2","volume":"27","author":"S Saha","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Climate"},{"issue":"2","key":"pmed.1004341.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27011","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP9324","article-title":"Projecting Temperature-Attributable Mortality and Hospital Admissions due to Enteric Infections in the Philippines","volume":"130","author":"PLC Chua","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"issue":"4","key":"pmed.1004341.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.1001\/jamainternmed.2022.6308","article-title":"Excess Mortality Among US Physicians During the COVID-19 Pandemic.","volume":"183","author":"MV Kiang","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA Intern Med"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref047","first-page":"100237","article-title":"Sociodemographic and geographic disparities in excess fatal drug overdoses during the COVID-19 pandemic in California: A population-based study","volume":"11","author":"MV Kiang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health Am"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref048","author":"R. R R Core Team","year":"2013","journal-title":"A language and environment for statistical computing"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref049","article-title":"excessmort: Excess Mortality.","author":"RA Irizarry","year":"2021","journal-title":"R package version 0.6.1"},{"issue":"29","key":"pmed.1004341.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5429","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8362","article-title":"An extended mixed-effects framework for meta-analysis.","volume":"38","author":"F Sera","year":"2019","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"358","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-022-05486-2","article-title":"Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China.","volume":"15","author":"C Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"5","key":"pmed.1004341.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"436","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01344-2","article-title":"Observed influence of anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclone heavy rainfall","volume":"12","author":"N Utsumi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Clim Change"},{"issue":"4","key":"pmed.1004341.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1111\/disa.12226","article-title":"Factors affecting the United Nations\u2019 response to natural disasters: what determines the allocation of the Central Emergency Response Fund?","volume":"41","author":"Md MPHTD Robinson","year":"2017","journal-title":"Disasters"},{"issue":"22","key":"pmed.1004341.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15442","DOI":"10.3390\/su142215442","article-title":"Predicting Factors Affecting the Intention to Prepare for Mitigation of Man-Made Fire Disasters in Chonburi Province, Thailand: An Integration of Structural Equation Modeling and Artificial Neural Network Hybrid Approach.","volume":"14","author":"P Kusonwattana","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"issue":"5","key":"pmed.1004341.ref055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1651","DOI":"10.3390\/su10051651","article-title":"Examining Vulnerability Factors to Natural Disasters with a Spatial Autoregressive Model: The Case of South Korea.","volume":"10","author":"S Jeong","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"issue":"12","key":"pmed.1004341.ref056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1029\/2021EF002326","article-title":"Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate.","volume":"9","author":"AJ Garner","year":"2021","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Future."},{"issue":"24","key":"pmed.1004341.ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9960","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00262.1","article-title":"Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity","volume":"26","author":"JP Kossin","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Climate"},{"issue":"45","key":"pmed.1004341.ref058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11543","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1808979115","article-title":"Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century","volume":"115","author":"J Altman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"7","key":"pmed.1004341.ref059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"594","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2020.02.012","article-title":"Tropical Cyclone Ecology: A Scale-Link Perspective","volume":"35","author":"TC Lin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref060","volume-title":"University of Notre Dame global adaptation index","author":"C Chen","year":"2015"},{"issue":"7759","key":"pmed.1004341.ref061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E3","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-019-1222-3","article-title":"Climate change and tropical cyclone trend","volume":"570","author":"IJ Moon","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-13902-y","article-title":"Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed.","volume":"11","author":"M Yamaguchi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"5","key":"pmed.1004341.ref063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"054003","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/10\/5\/054003","article-title":"Evidence of reduced vulnerability to tropical cyclones in the Republic of Korea.","volume":"10","author":"D-SR Park","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environ Res Lett"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5236","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-09287-6","article-title":"More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall.","volume":"12","author":"S Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3288","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-07310-4","article-title":"On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall.","volume":"12","author":"S Wang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref066","first-page":"11","volume-title":"Early Warning Systems and Their Role in Disaster Risk Reduction.","author":"R \u0160aki\u0107 Trogrli\u0107","year":"2022"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref067","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2018.10.011","article-title":"Disaster risks and management policies and practices in Nigeria: A critical appraisal of the National Emergency Management Agency Act.","volume":"33","author":"SA Mashi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Disaster Risk Reduct"},{"issue":"5","key":"pmed.1004341.ref068","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"508","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2008.08.022","article-title":"Building human resilience: the role of public health preparedness and response as an adaptation to climate change.","volume":"35","author":"ME Keim","year":"2008","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med"},{"issue":"20","key":"pmed.1004341.ref069","first-page":"2529","article-title":"The Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors: 2020 and Beyond","volume":"74","author":"GA Mensah","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Am Coll Cardiol"},{"issue":"6","key":"pmed.1004341.ref070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1003138","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1003138","article-title":"Population ageing and mortality during 1990\u20132017: A global decomposition analysis.","volume":"17","author":"X Cheng","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"pmed.1004341.ref071","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14","DOI":"10.1038\/s41561-021-00859-1","article-title":"Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates.","volume":"15","author":"J Studholme","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Geosci"},{"issue":"7970","key":"pmed.1004341.ref072","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"533","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-023-06185-3","article-title":"Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks","volume":"619","author":"K Bi","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"22","key":"pmed.1004341.ref073","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11975","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1920849117","article-title":"Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades","volume":"117","author":"JP Kossin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref074","unstructured":"Center for Disease and Prevention. Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19. 2020. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/nvss\/vsrr\/covid19\/excess_deaths.htm#techNotes."},{"issue":"7","key":"pmed.1004341.ref075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1206","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.5595","article-title":"An improved algorithm for outbreak detection in multiple surveillance systems.","volume":"32","author":"A Noufaily","year":"2013","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref076","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"547","DOI":"10.2307\/2983331","article-title":"A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease.","volume":"159","author":"CP Farrington","year":"1996","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc A Stat Soc."},{"key":"pmed.1004341.ref077","first-page":"D09120","article-title":"On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling","volume":"117","author":"N Lin","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Geophys Res Atmos"},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref078","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1290","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-13-00249.1","article-title":"Observed Hurricane Wind Speed Asymmetries and Relationships to Motion and Environmental Shear.","volume":"142","author":"EW Uhlhorn","year":"2014","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev."},{"issue":"3","key":"pmed.1004341.ref079","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tcrr.2021.09.002","article-title":"Estimating tropical cyclone surface winds: Current status, emerging technologies, historical evolution, and a look to the future.","volume":"10","author":"JA Knaff","year":"2021","journal-title":"Trop Cyclone Res Rev."}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,5]],"date-time":"2024-02-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1707091200000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,5]],"date-time":"2024-02-05T18:40:29Z","timestamp":1707158429000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,22]]},"references-count":79,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,22]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341","relation":{"new_version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004341","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1549-1676"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1549-1676","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,22]]}}}