{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T19:19:27Z","timestamp":1790795967423,"version":"4.1.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004387","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,1]],"date-time":"2024-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714521600000}}],"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,17]],"date-time":"2024-04-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1713312000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2127976"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2127976"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2127976"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2127976"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2127976"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2127976"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000016","name":"U.S. Department of Health and Human Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000016","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000016","name":"U.S. Department of Health and Human Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000016","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000016","name":"U.S. Department of Health and Human Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000016","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000016","name":"U.S. Department of Health and Human Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000016","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000180","name":"U.S. Department of Homeland Security","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000180","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005002","name":"California Department of Public Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005002","name":"California Department of Public Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005002","name":"California Department of Public Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005002","name":"California Department of Public Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007880","name":"Johns Hopkins University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007880","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007880","name":"Johns Hopkins University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007880","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007880","name":"Johns Hopkins University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007880","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007880","name":"Johns Hopkins University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007880","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008536","name":"Amazon Web Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008536","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008536","name":"Amazon Web Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008536","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008536","name":"Amazon Web Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008536","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008536","name":"Amazon Web Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008536","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008536","name":"Amazon Web Services","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008536","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01GM140564"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01GM140564"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5R01AI102939"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5R01AI102939"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Swiss National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["200021-172578"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200021-172578"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U24GM132013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U24GM132013"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U24GM132013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U24GM132013"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U24GM132013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U24GM132013"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U24GM132013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U24GM132013"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2028301"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2028301"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2037885"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2037885"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2126278"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2126278"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2220903"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2220903"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2028301"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2028301"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2037885"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2037885"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2126278"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2126278"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-2220903"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-2220903"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DGE1255832"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DGE1255832"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008321","name":"Pennsylvania State University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["the Eberly College of Science Barbara McClintock Science Achievement Graduate Scholarship in Biology"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["the Eberly College of Science Barbara McClintock Science Achievement Graduate Scholarship in Biology"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008321","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["6U01IP001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["6U01IP001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["6U01IP001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["6U01IP001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["6U01IP001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["6U01IP001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["6U01IP001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["6U01IP001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U01IP0001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U01IP0001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U01IP0001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U01IP0001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U01IP0001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U01IP0001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["5U01IP0001137"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5U01IP0001137"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100015691","name":"Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UL1TR002489"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1TR002489"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100015691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100015691","name":"Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UL1TR002489"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1TR002489"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100015691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100015691","name":"Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UL1TR002489"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1TR002489"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100015691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100015691","name":"Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UL1TR002489"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UL1TR002489"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100015691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Hub Consortium fellowship"},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Hub Consortium fellowship"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100015691","name":"Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R21AI164391"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R21AI164391"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100015691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000057","name":"National Institute of General Medical Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R35GM143029"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R35GM143029"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000057","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2135784 and 2223933, and Scenario Modeling Consortium Fellowship"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2135784 and 2223933, and Scenario Modeling Consortium Fellowship"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005663","name":"Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NU38OT000297"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NU38OT000297"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01IP001136- Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01IP001136- Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01IP001136- Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01IP001136- Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01IP001136- Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01IP001136- Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01IP001136- Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01IP001136- Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01IP001136- Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01IP001136- Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75D30122C14776"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30122C14776"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75D30122C14776"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30122C14776"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75D30122C14776"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30122C14776"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75D30122C14776"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30122C14776"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["75D30122C14776"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30122C14776"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI151176-Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI151176-Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI151176-Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI151176-Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI151176-Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI151176-Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI151176-Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI151176-Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000009","name":"Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI151176-Suppl"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI151176-Suppl"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000009","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"name":"Scenario Modeling Consortium","award":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["75D30121F00005-2005604290"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004989","name":"Virginia Department of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["VDH-21-501-0135"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["VDH-21-501-0135"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004989","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OAC-1916805"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OAC-1916805"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CCF-1918656"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CCF-1918656"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000774","name":"Defense Threat Reduction Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ARA S-D00189-15-TO-01-UVA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008457","name":"University of Virginia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008457","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CIS230005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CIS230005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosmedicine.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Med"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methods and findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period.<\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000\u2013598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004387","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,17]],"date-time":"2024-04-17T13:54:02Z","timestamp":1713362042000},"page":"e1004387","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0787-4515","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sung-mok","family":"Jung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9763-5587","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sara L.","family":"Loo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0639-3728","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Emily","family":"Howerton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5797-1279","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lucie","family":"Contamin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1069-9460","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Claire P.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erica C.","family":"Carcel\u00e9n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8381-504X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Katie","family":"Yan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-9298-945X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Samantha J.","family":"Bents","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John","family":"Levander","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8104-2656","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jessi","family":"Espino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2677-6574","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Joseph C.","family":"Lemaitre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3827-4459","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Koji","family":"Sato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6149-0598","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Clifton D.","family":"McKee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6583-3623","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alison L.","family":"Hill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matteo","family":"Chinazzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0726-1855","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jessica T.","family":"Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kunpeng","family":"Mu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3419-4205","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alessandro","family":"Vespignani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7755-0559","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Erik T.","family":"Rosenstrom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7667-7470","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sebastian A.","family":"Rodriguez-Cartes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julie S.","family":"Ivy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6399-2153","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Maria E.","family":"Mayorga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julie L.","family":"Swann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guido","family":"Espa\u00f1a","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2559-797X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sean","family":"Cavany","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9062-6100","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sean M.","family":"Moore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7518-4014","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"T. Alex","family":"Perkins","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2316-111X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shi","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5120-7525","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rajib","family":"Paul","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Janies","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6651-8123","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jean-Claude","family":"Thill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8706-5717","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ajitesh","family":"Srivastava","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-9026-9085","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Majd Al","family":"Aawar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kaiming","family":"Bi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5063-2290","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shraddha Ramdas","family":"Bandekar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anass","family":"Bouchnita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1969-3778","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Spencer J.","family":"Fox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5828-8874","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lauren Ancel","family":"Meyers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8012-5791","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Przemyslaw","family":"Porebski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0874-8692","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Srini","family":"Venkatramanan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aniruddha","family":"Adiga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3803-2900","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Benjamin","family":"Hurt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4690-9944","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Brian","family":"Klahn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joseph","family":"Outten","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2729-3881","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jiangzhuo","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3363-2947","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Henning","family":"Mortveit","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4778-5744","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Amanda","family":"Wilson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8503-8371","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Stefan","family":"Hoops","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3626-9939","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Parantapa","family":"Bhattacharya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dustin","family":"Machi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anil","family":"Vullikanti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0793-6082","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bryan","family":"Lewis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Madhav","family":"Marathe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8793-9982","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Harry","family":"Hochheiser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8081-536X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Michael C.","family":"Runge","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7607-8248","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Katriona","family":"Shea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0538-0607","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shaun","family":"Truelove","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3243-4711","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"C\u00e9cile","family":"Viboud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9741-8109","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Justin","family":"Lessler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"741","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abe6522","article-title":"Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity","volume":"371","author":"JS Lavine","year":"2021","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"556","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(22)00801-5","article-title":"Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regression","volume":"23","author":"N Bobrovitz","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-021-01603-z","article-title":"Antigenic escape selects for the evolution of higher pathogen transmission and virulence","volume":"6","author":"A Sasaki","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Ecol Evol"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"495","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-021-03792-w","article-title":"After the pandemic: perspectives on the future trajectory of COVID-19","volume":"596","author":"A Telenti","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1010435","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010435","article-title":"Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates: A Bayesian modelling study in 143 European regions. Struchiner CJ, editor","volume":"18","author":"T Gaven\u010diak","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16729","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-19898-8","article-title":"Investigating the effects of absolute humidity and movement on COVID-19 seasonality in the United States","volume":"12","author":"G Lin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2019284118","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2019284118","article-title":"Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions","volume":"118","author":"TP Smith","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2681","DOI":"10.1016\/j.immuni.2021.11.016","article-title":"Antigenic drift: Understanding COVID-19","volume":"54","author":"JW Yewdell","year":"2021","journal-title":"Immunity"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"C8","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2008.04.011","article-title":"Vaccination and antigenic drift in influenza","volume":"26","author":"MF Boni","year":"2008","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6852","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2007.07.027","article-title":"Influenza vaccine: The challenge of antigenic drift","volume":"25","author":"F Carrat","year":"2007","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7205e1","article-title":"Early Estimates of Bivalent mRNA Booster Dose Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection Attributable to Omicron BA.5\u2013 and XBB\/XBB.1.5\u2013Related Sublineages Among Immunocompetent Adults\u2014Increasing Community Access to Testing Program, United States, December 2022\u2013January 2023","volume":"72","author":"R Link-Gelles","year":"2023","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e006434","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2021-006434","article-title":"The isolated effect of age on the risk of COVID-19 severe outcomes: a systematic review with meta-analysis","volume":"6","author":"K Romero Starke","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"839","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2022.306831","article-title":"Collaborative Hubs: Making the Most of Predictive Epidemic Modeling","volume":"112","author":"NG Reich","year":"2022","journal-title":"Am J Public Health"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref014","unstructured":"COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. 2021 Dec 22 [cited 2023 Aug 24]. Available from: https:\/\/viz.covid19scenariomodelinghub.org\/."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7260","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-42680-x","article-title":"Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty","volume":"14","author":"E Howerton","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref016","unstructured":"US Food and Drug Administration. FDA Takes Action on Updated mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines to Better Protect Against Currently Circulating Variants. In: FDA [Internet]. FDA; 2023 Sep 11 [cited 2024 Jan 22]. Available from: https:\/\/www.fda.gov\/news-events\/press-announcements\/fda-takes-action-updated-mrna-covid-19-vaccines-better-protect-against-currently-circulating."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref017","unstructured":"CDC. COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States, Jurisdiction. In: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Internet]. 2023 May 12 [cited 2023 Aug 24]. Available from: https:\/\/data.cdc.gov\/Vaccinations\/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi\/unsk-b7fc."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref018","unstructured":"COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (GitHub). 2023 Jul 28 [cited 2023 Aug 28]. Available from: https:\/\/github.com\/midas-network\/covid19-scenario-modeling-hub."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1616","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm715152e1","article-title":"Early Estimates of Bivalent mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing COVID-19\u2013Associated Emergency Department or Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Immunocompetent Adults\u2014VISION Network, Nine States, September\u2013November 2022","volume":"71","author":"MW Tenforde","year":"2022","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20220659","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2022.0659","article-title":"Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology","volume":"20","author":"E Howerton","year":"2023","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"463","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2013.1781","article-title":"Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd\u2019s Calibration Problem","volume":"60","author":"VRR Jose","year":"2014","journal-title":"Manag Sci"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1339","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177704873","article-title":"The Opinion Pool","volume":"32","author":"M. Stone","year":"1961","journal-title":"Ann Math Stat"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.2012.687494","article-title":"Who Invented the Delta Method?","volume":"66","author":"JM Ver Hoef","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am Stat"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref024","first-page":"100398","article-title":"Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5\u201311 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021\u2013March 2022: a multi-model study","volume":"17","author":"RK Borchering","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health\u2014Am"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref025","first-page":"36","article-title":"Conducting Meta-Analyses in R with the metafor Package","author":"W. Viechtbauer","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref026","unstructured":"CDC. Science Brief: Indicators for Monitoring COVID-19 Community Levels and Making Public Health Recommendations. In: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Internet]. 2020 Feb 11 [cited 2023 Aug 24]. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/science\/science-briefs\/indicators-monitoring-community-levels.html."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref027","unstructured":"Johns Hopkins-COVID19 Overview. In: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center [Internet]. 2023 Mar 10 [cited 2023 Sep 15]. Available from: https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/region\/united-states."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref028","unstructured":"CDC. Mortality in the United States, 2019. In: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Internet]. 2021 May 11 [cited 2023 Aug 24]. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/products\/databriefs\/db395.htm."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref029","unstructured":"CDC. COVID-19 Vaccination Demographics in the United States, National | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2023 May 12 [cited 2023 Aug 24]. Available from: https:\/\/data.cdc.gov\/Vaccinations\/COVID-19-Vaccination-Demographics-in-the-United-St\/km4m-vcsb."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref030","unstructured":"CDC. Flu Vaccination Coverage, United States (FluVaxView). In: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Internet]. 2022 Jan 27 [cited 2023 Aug 24]. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/flu\/fluvaxview\/coverage-1819estimates.htm."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1140","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7242e1","article-title":"Use of Updated COVID-19 Vaccines 2023\u20132024 Formula for Persons Aged \u22656 Months: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices\u2014United States, September 2023.","volume":"72","author":"JJ Regan","year":"2023","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e460","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(23)00575-3","article-title":"Transmissibility, infectivity, and immune evasion of the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 variant","volume":"23","author":"K Uriu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref033","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). National Immunization Survey Adult COVID Module (NIS-ACM): COVIDVaxViews. 2024 Mar 13 [cited 2024 Mar 24]. Available from: https:\/\/data.cdc.gov\/Vaccinations\/National-Immunization-Survey-Adult-COVID-Module-NI\/uc4z-hbsd\/about_data\/."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref034","unstructured":"European Covid-19 Scenario Hub. European Covid-19 Scenario Hub: Round 5-Assessing the impact of COVID-19 booster uptake on the 2023\/24 winter burden. 2024 Feb 7 [cited 2024 Mar 24]. Available from: https:\/\/covid19scenariohub.eu\/report5.html#results-and-limitations."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"pgad106","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgad106","article-title":"Intermediate levels of asymptomatic transmission can lead to the highest epidemic fatalities. Yortsos Y, editor","volume":"2","author":"SW Park","year":"2023","journal-title":"PNAS Nexus"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"814","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adf8989","article-title":"Will viral interference hold off the tripledemic?","volume":"378","author":"J. Cohen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref037","unstructured":"Flu Scenario Modeling Hub. 2023 Aug 14 [cited 29 Jan 2024]. Available from: https:\/\/viz.fluscenariomodelinghub.org\/."},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"eabq4450","DOI":"10.1126\/sciimmunol.abq4450","article-title":"Antigenic cartography of SARS-CoV-2 reveals that Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 are antigenically distinct","volume":"7","author":"AZ Mykytyn","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Immunol"},{"key":"pmed.1004387.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7701","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-35312-3","article-title":"BA.2 and BA.5 omicron differ immunologically from both BA.1 omicron and pre-omicron variants","volume":"13","author":"A R\u00f6ssler","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Commun"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004387","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,1]],"date-time":"2024-05-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714521600000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004387","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,1]],"date-time":"2024-05-01T13:32:37Z","timestamp":1714570357000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004387"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Peter","family":"MacPherson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,17]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,17]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1004387","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2023.10.26.23297581","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1549-1676"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1549-1676","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,17]]}}}