{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T18:39:44Z","timestamp":1789756784820,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,22]],"date-time":"2007-10-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1193011200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000033","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,30]],"date-time":"2007-10-30T21:52:01Z","timestamp":1193781121000},"page":"e33","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":57,"title":["Comparing Models for Early Warning Systems of Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"1","author":[{"given":"Luis Fernando","family":"Chaves","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mercedes","family":"Pascual","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","first-page":"439","article-title":"Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem.","volume":"41","author":"SJ Connor","year":"1999","journal-title":"Parassitologia"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"438","DOI":"10.1016\/S1471-4922(01)02077-3","article-title":"The development of malaria early warning systems for Africa.","volume":"17","author":"MC Thomson","year":"2001","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9335","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.97.16.9335","article-title":"Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease.","volume":"97","author":"SI Hay","year":"2000","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"298","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-3156.2003.01175.x","article-title":"Climate variability and Ross River Virus transmission in Townsville region, Australia, 1985-1996.","volume":"9","author":"SL Tong","year":"2004","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"310","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04188","article-title":"Impact of regional climate change on human health.","volume":"438","author":"JA Patz","year":"2005","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e295","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030295","article-title":"Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease.","volume":"3","author":"LF Chaves","year":"2006","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"569","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ede.0000229467.92742.7b","article-title":"Early warning of Ross virus epidemics: combining surveillance data on climate and mosquitoes.","volume":"17","author":"RE Woodruff","year":"2006","journal-title":"Epid"},{"key":"ref8","article-title":"The genesis of epidemics and the natural history of disease. An introduction to the science of epidemiology based upon the study of epidemics of malaria, influenza and plague.","author":"CA Gill","year":"1928"},{"key":"ref9","article-title":"The seasonal periodicity of malaria and the mechanism of the epidemic wave.","author":"CA Gill","year":"1938"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"664","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-37.5.664","article-title":"Early warning of malaria epidemics in African highlands using <italic>Anopheles<\/italic> (Diptera: Culicidae) indoor resting density.","volume":"37","author":"KA Lindblade","year":"2000","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"710","DOI":"10.1038\/415710a","article-title":"Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria.","volume":"415","author":"DJ Rogers","year":"2002","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1705","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(03)13366-1","article-title":"Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.","volume":"361","author":"SI Hay","year":"2003","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"418","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-6632.1994.tb19902.x","article-title":"Developing paradigms to anticipate emerging diseases \u2013 transmission cycles and a search for pattern.","volume":"740","author":"ML Wilson","year":"1994","journal-title":"Ann N Y Acad Sci"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.2190\/WLVK-D0RR-KVBV-A1DH","article-title":"Toward an ecosocial view of health.","volume":"29","author":"R Levins","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int J Health Serv"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1007\/s00436-006-0427-1","article-title":"<italic>Casas Muertas<\/italic> and <italic>Oficina No.1<\/italic> : internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905\u20131945.","volume":"101","author":"LF Chaves","year":"2007","journal-title":"Parasitol. Res."},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"214","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2005.73.214","article-title":"Use of Rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning system in Botswana.","volume":"73","author":"MC Thomson","year":"2005","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e102","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030102","article-title":"Incorporating a rapid impact package for neglected tropical diseases with programs for HIV\/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.","volume":"3","author":"PJ Hotez","year":"2006","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"595","DOI":"10.1038\/273595a0","article-title":"Epidemiology and ecology of leishmaniasis in Latin-America.","volume":"273","author":"R Lainson","year":"1978","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3354\/cr021001","article-title":"A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas.","volume":"21","author":"M New","year":"2002","journal-title":"Clim Res"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"315","DOI":"10.1002\/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06408.x","article-title":"Measuring the strength of ENSO\u2014How does 1997\/98 rank?","volume":"53","author":"K Wolter","year":"1998","journal-title":"Weather"},{"key":"ref21","article-title":"Non-linear and non-stationary time series analysis.","author":"MB Priestley","year":"1988"},{"key":"ref22","article-title":"Linear models with R.","author":"JJ Faraway","year":"2005"},{"key":"ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-0823-5","article-title":"Understanding Nonlinear Dynamics","author":"M Kaplan","year":"1995"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-4541-9","article-title":"An introduction to the bootstrap.","author":"B Efron","year":"1993"},{"key":"ref25","article-title":"Introduction to time series and forecasting. 2<sup>nd<\/sup> ed.","author":"PJ Brockwell","year":"2002"},{"key":"ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-3261-0","article-title":"Time series analysis and its applications.","author":"RH Shumway","year":"2000"},{"key":"ref27","first-page":"52","article-title":"The emergence of new diseases","volume":"82","author":"R Levins","year":"1994","journal-title":"Am. Scien."},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"657","DOI":"10.1126\/science.293.5530.657","article-title":"Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.","volume":"293","author":"JS Clark","year":"2001","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"585","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182004005013","article-title":"Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia : a statistical modeling based approach based on theoretical reasoning.","volume":"128","author":"TA Abeku","year":"2004","journal-title":"Parasitol"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"851","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-3156.2002.00924.x","article-title":"Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.","volume":"7","author":"TA Abeku","year":"2004","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-3-41","article-title":"Weather-based prediction of <italic>Plasmodium falciparum<\/italic> malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather reflect biological mechanisms.","volume":"3","author":"HD Teklehaimanot","year":"2004","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-3-44","article-title":"Weather-based prediction of <italic>Plasmodium falciparum<\/italic> malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions.","volume":"3","author":"HD Teklehaimanot","year":"2004","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2375","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0308714100","article-title":"Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the east African highlands.","volume":"101","author":"G Zhou","year":"2004","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2004.71.129","article-title":"Development of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease in Brisbane, Australia.","volume":"71","author":"WB Hu","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"505","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2006.02.028","article-title":"Rainfall, mosquito density and the transmission of Ross River: a time series forecasting model.","volume":"196","author":"WB Hu","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Model"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.1994.0108","article-title":"Measles as a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos.","volume":"348","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"1994","journal-title":"Phil Trans Roy Soc London A."},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-011-2916-9","article-title":"Analytical Population Dynamics.","author":"T Royama","year":"1992"},{"key":"ref38","article-title":"Complex Population Dynamics.","author":"P Turchin","year":"2003"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.2307\/3886","article-title":"Patterns of dynamical behavior in single species populations.","volume":"45","author":"MP Hassell","year":"1976","journal-title":"J. Anim. Ecol."},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.2307\/1938740","article-title":"Complex dynamics in ecological time series.","volume":"73","author":"P Turchin","year":"1992","journal-title":"Ecology."},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1086\/285744","article-title":"Chaos in a noisy world new methods and evidence from time series analysis.","volume":"145","author":"S Ellner","year":"1995","journal-title":"Am. Nat."},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"160","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1461-0248.1998.00037.x","article-title":"The macroecology of population dynamics: taxonomic and biogeographic patterns in population cycles.","volume":"1","author":"BE Kendall","year":"1998","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"734","DOI":"10.1038\/344734a0","article-title":"Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series.","volume":"344","author":"G Sugihara","year":"1990","journal-title":"Nature."},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"714","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(94)91586-5","article-title":"Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda.","volume":"343","author":"ME Loevinsohn","year":"1994","journal-title":"Lancet."},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2915.1998.00072.x","article-title":"Abundance of <italic>Lutzomyia ovallesi<\/italic> but no <italic>Lu<\/italic>. <italic>gomezi<\/italic> (Diptera: Psychodidae) correlated with cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in north-central Venezuela.","volume":"12","author":"MD Feliciangeli","year":"1998","journal-title":"Med. Vet. Entomol."},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2004.08.004","article-title":"Mathematical modelling of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: incidental hosts and threshold conditions for infection persistence.","volume":"92","author":"LF Chaves","year":"2004","journal-title":"Acta Trop."},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2007.05.003","article-title":"Sources and sinks: revisiting the criteria for identifying reservoirs for American cutaneous leishmaniasis.","volume":"23","author":"LF Chaves","year":"2007","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol."},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e328","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030328","article-title":"Infectious diseases, climate influences and nonstationarity.","volume":"3","author":"B Cazelles","year":"2006","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2005.00879.x","article-title":"Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases.","volume":"9","author":"S Altizer","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Lett."},{"key":"ref50","article-title":"Consumer-Resource Dynamics.","author":"WW Murdoch","year":"2003"},{"key":"ref51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"674","DOI":"10.1038\/29291","article-title":"Noise and determinism in synchronized sheep dynamics.","volume":"394","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nature."},{"key":"ref52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1766","DOI":"10.1126\/science.289.5485.1766","article-title":"Cholera Dynamics and El Ni\u00f1o- Southern Oscillation.","volume":"289","author":"M Pascual","year":"2000","journal-title":"Science."},{"key":"ref53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1943","DOI":"10.2307\/1941447","article-title":"The problem of pattern and scale in ecology.","volume":"73","author":"SA Levin","year":"1992","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-4-6","article-title":"An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning system in Africa.","volume":"4","author":"E Grover-Kopec","year":"2005","journal-title":"Malar J."},{"key":"ref55","first-page":"421","article-title":"The strategy of model building in population biology.","volume":"54","author":"R Levins","year":"1966","journal-title":"Am. Scien."},{"key":"ref56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"741","DOI":"10.1007\/s10539-006-9052-8","article-title":"Strategies of abstraction.","volume":"21","author":"R Levins","year":"2006","journal-title":"Biol. Philos."}],"container-title":["PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000033","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,4]],"date-time":"2019-05-04T03:35:50Z","timestamp":1556940950000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000033"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Juerg","family":"Utzinger","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,22]]},"references-count":56,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,22]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000033","relation":{},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,10,22]]}}}