{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,23]],"date-time":"2026-10-23T03:44:41Z","timestamp":1792727081712,"version":"4.5.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,21]],"date-time":"2021-12-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640044800000}}],"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,9]],"date-time":"2021-12-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1639008000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000288","name":"Royal Society","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000288","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000288","name":"Royal Society","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000288","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014132","name":"European Metrology Programme for Innovation and Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["856612"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["856612"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014132","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"National Council for Scientific and Technological Development","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["303985\/2019-4"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["303985\/2019-4"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil\u2019s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes<\/jats:italic>\n                    mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,9]],"date-time":"2021-12-09T13:54:29Z","timestamp":1639058069000},"page":"e0009773","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":68,"title":["The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2049-9756","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Sophie A.","family":"Lee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8697-1518","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Theodoros","family":"Economou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2837-0364","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rafael","family":"de Castro Cat\u00e3o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1161-2753","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christovam","family":"Barcellos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3939-7343","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Rachel","family":"Lowe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref001","unstructured":"Ten health issues WHO will tackle this year. [cited 10 Jun 2021]. https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/spotlight\/ten-threats-to-global-health-in-2019"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e101","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(16)30518-7","article-title":"Epidemic arboviral diseases: priorities for research and public health","volume":"17","author":"A Wilder-Smith","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"712","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(16)00026-8","article-title":"The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013","volume":"16","author":"JD Stanaway","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.2149\/tmh.2011-S05","article-title":"Dengue, Urbanization and Globalization: The Unholy Trinity of the 21st Century","volume":"39","author":"DJ Gubler","year":"2011","journal-title":"Trop Med Health"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref005","first-page":"e321873","article-title":"Epidemiological Scenario of Dengue in Brazil","volume":"2015","author":"RCG Fares","year":"2015","journal-title":"BioMed Res Int"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.12227","article-title":"Expansion of the dengue transmission area in Brazil: the role of climate and cities","volume":"19","author":"C Barcellos","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"593","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/traa030","article-title":"Spatiotemporal evolution of dengue outbreaks in Brazil","volume":"114","author":"TS de Azevedo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007012","article-title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony","volume":"13","author":"M Churakov","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105386","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2020.105386","article-title":"The Asian tiger mosquito in Brazil: Observations on biology and ecological interactions since its first detection in 1986","volume":"205","author":"VH Ferreira-de-Lima","year":"2020","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref010","unstructured":"Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (BR). Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade. Departamento de Vigil\u00e2ncia Epidemiol\u00f3gica. Guia de vigil\u00e2ncia em sa\u00fade: volume \u00fanico [Internet]. 2019."},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0229847","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0229847","article-title":"First report of Aedes albopictus infected by Dengue and Zika virus in a rural outbreak in Brazil","volume":"15","author":"HR Rezende","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-0276130395","article-title":"History of domestication and spread of Aedes aegypti\u2014A Review","volume":"108","author":"JR Powell","year":"2013","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0003648","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003648","article-title":"River Boats Contribute to the Regional Spread of the Dengue Vector Aedes aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon","volume":"9","author":"SA Guagliardo","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-02760150363","article-title":"Detection of all four dengue serotypes in Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes collected in a rural area in Colombia","volume":"111","author":"R P\u00e9rez-Castro","year":"2016","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0195014","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0195014","article-title":"Dispersion and oviposition of Aedes albopictus in a Brazilian slum: Initial evidence of Asian tiger mosquito domiciliation in urban environments","volume":"13","author":"T Ayll\u00f3n","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLOS ONE"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"854","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0376-y","article-title":"Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus","volume":"4","author":"MUG Kraemer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Microbiol"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"m4385","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.m4385","article-title":"Emerging arboviruses in the urbanized Amazon rainforest","volume":"371","author":"R Lowe","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e209","DOI":"10.1016\/S2542-5196(20)30292-8","article-title":"Combined effects of hydrometeorological hazards and urbanisation on dengue risk in Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study","volume":"5","author":"R Lowe","year":"2021","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1002613","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1002613","article-title":"Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study","volume":"15","author":"R Lowe","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLOS Med"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/insects9040158","article-title":"Effects of the Environmental Temperature on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes: A Review","volume":"9","author":"JM Reinhold","year":"2018","journal-title":"Insects"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005568","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005568","article-title":"Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models","volume":"11","author":"EA Mordecai","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1690","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335","article-title":"Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease","volume":"22","author":"EA Mordecai","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coviro.2020.05.001","article-title":"Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses","volume":"40","author":"MA Robert","year":"2020","journal-title":"Curr Opin Virol"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-019-0295-z","article-title":"Arbovirus emergence in the temperate city of C\u00f3rdoba, Argentina, 2009\u20132018","volume":"6","author":"MA Robert","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci Data"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-3280-z","article-title":"Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control","volume":"12","author":"CA Marques-Toledo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref026","article-title":"The introduction of dengue follows transportation infrastructure changes in the state of Acre, Brazil: A network-based analysis","volume":"11","author":"RM Lana","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20210096","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2021.0096","article-title":"Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions","volume":"18","author":"SA Lee","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref028","unstructured":"Estat\u00edstica IB de G e. Regi\u00f5es de influ\u00eancia das cidades 2007. IBGE Rio de Janeiro; 2008."},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref029","unstructured":"Estat\u00edstica IB de G e. Regi\u00f5es de influ\u00eancia das cidades 2018. IBGE Rio de Janeiro; 2020."},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref030","unstructured":"Population, total | Data. [cited 1 Nov 2021]. https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/SP.POP.TOTL?most_recent_value_desc=true"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"336","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2202.150495","article-title":"Accuracy of Dengue Reporting by National Surveillance System, Brazil","volume":"22","author":"MMO Silva","year":"2016","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lee S.A, Economou T., Cat\u00e3o R., Barcellos C., Lowe R. Data and R code to accompany \u201cThe impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil\u201d (version 1.0.0). 2021. https:\/\/github.com\/sophie-a-lee\/Dengue_expansion","DOI":"10.1101\/2021.09.16.21263065"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref033","unstructured":"Copernicus Climate Change Service. ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 2001 to present. ECMWF; 2019."},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref034","unstructured":"Baston, Daniel. exactextractr: Fast Extraction from Raster Datasets using Polygons. 2020. https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=exactextractr"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pereira, R.H.M., Gon\u00e7alves, C.N. geobr: Loads Shapefiles of Official Spatial Data Sets of Brazil. 2019. https:\/\/github.com\/ipeaGIT\/geobr","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.geobr"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref036","unstructured":"IBGE. Arranjos populacionais e concentra\u00e7\u00f5es urbanas no Brasil. IBGE Rio de Janeiro; 2016."},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"619","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)70781-9","article-title":"Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: An early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts","volume":"14","author":"R Lowe","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315370279","volume-title":"Generalized additive models: an introduction with R","author":"SN Wood","year":"2017"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability","volume":"78","author":"GW Brier","year":"1950","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-019-6641-4","article-title":"30 years of fatal dengue cases in Brazil: a review","volume":"19","author":"PCG Nunes","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"711","DOI":"10.1127\/0941-2948\/2013\/0507","article-title":"K\u00f6ppen\u2019s climate classification map for Brazil","author":"CA Alvares","year":"2013","journal-title":"Meteorol Z"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"484","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apm.2017.06.003","article-title":"Seasonality on the life cycle of Aedes aegypti mosquito and its statistical relation with dengue outbreaks","volume":"50","author":"E Pliego Pliego","year":"2017","journal-title":"Appl Math Model"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e3000526","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.3000526","article-title":"Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon","volume":"17","author":"MC Castro","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLOS Biol"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref044","unstructured":"Secretaria de Vigil\u00e2ncia em Sa\u00fade. Boletim Epidemiol\u00f3gico\u2014Monitoramento dos casos de arboviroses urbanas causados por v\u00edrus transmitidos pelo mosquito Aedes (dengue, chikungunya e zika), semanas epidemiol\u00f3gicas 1 a 21, 2021. Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade; 2021. https:\/\/www.gov.br\/saude\/pt-br\/media\/pdf\/2021\/junho\/07\/boletim_epidemiologico_svs_21.pdf"},{"key":"pntd.0009773.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006451","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006451","article-title":"Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission","volume":"12","author":"JH Huber","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,21]],"date-time":"2021-12-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640044800000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,13]],"date-time":"2024-09-13T23:55:37Z","timestamp":1726271737000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Hannah E.","family":"Clapham","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,9]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,9]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009773","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2021.09.16.21263065","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,9]]}}}