{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T05:26:44Z","timestamp":1788499604957,"version":"build-2803163510"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010367","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,13]],"date-time":"2022-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1665619200000}}],"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,3]],"date-time":"2022-10-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1664755200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Agence nationale de la recherche","award":["ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID"]}]},{"name":"European Research Council","award":["804744"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["804744"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100011199","name":"FP7 Ideas: European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["282378"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["282378"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100011199","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Understanding the underlying risk of infection by dengue virus from surveillance systems is complicated due to the complex nature of the disease. In particular, the probability of becoming severely sick is driven by serotype-specific infection histories as well as age; however, this has rarely been quantified. Island communities that have periodic outbreaks dominated by single serotypes provide an opportunity to disentangle the competing role of serotype, age and changes in surveillance systems in characterising disease risk.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methodology<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We develop mathematical models to analyse 35 years of dengue surveillance (1979\u20132014) and seroprevalence studies from French Polynesia. We estimate the annual force of infection, serotype-specific reporting probabilities and changes in surveillance capabilities using the annual age and serotype-specific distribution of dengue.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Principal findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Eight dengue epidemics occurred between 1979 and 2014, with reporting probabilities for DENV-1 primary infections increasing from 3% to 5%. The reporting probability for DENV-1 secondary infections was 3.6 times that for primary infections. We also observed heterogeneity in reporting probabilities by serotype, with DENV-3 having the highest probability of being detected. Reporting probabilities declined with age after 14 y.o. Between 1979 and 2014, the proportion never infected declined from 70% to 23% while the proportion infected at least twice increased from 4.5% to 45%. By 2014, almost half of the population had acquired heterotypic immunity. The probability of an epidemic increased sharply with the estimated fraction of susceptibles among children.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion\/Significance<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>By analysing 35 years of dengue data in French Polynesia, we characterised key factors affecting the dissemination profile and reporting of dengue cases in an epidemiological context simplified by mono-serotypic circulation. Our analysis provides key estimates that can inform the study of dengue in more complex settings where the co-circulation of multiple serotypes can greatly complicate inference.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010367","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,3]],"date-time":"2022-10-03T13:57:18Z","timestamp":1664805438000},"page":"e0010367","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Reconstructing long-term dengue virus immunity in French Polynesia"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2981-4035","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Takahiro","family":"Nemoto","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maite","family":"Aubry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoann","family":"Teissier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Paul","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Van-Mai","family":"Cao-Lormeau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Henrik","family":"Salje","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Cauchemez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref001","first-page":"e1760","article-title":"Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6 (8)","author":"OJ Brady","year":"2012","journal-title":"Public Library of Science"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref002","author":"WHO","year":"2020","journal-title":"Dengue and Severe Dengue https"},{"issue":"10159","key":"pntd.0010367.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1736","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)32203-7","article-title":"Global, Regional, and National Age-Sex-Specific Mortality for 282 Causes of Death in 195 Countries and Territories, 1980\u20132017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017","volume":"392","author":"GA Roth","year":"2018","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref004","first-page":"96","article-title":"Hemorrhagic Fever in Thailand; Recent Knowledge Regarding Etiology","volume":"20","author":"SB Halstead","year":"1967","journal-title":"Japanese Journal of Medical Science & Biology"},{"issue":"7","key":"pntd.0010367.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1445","DOI":"10.1007\/s00705-013-1645-3","article-title":"Secondary Infection as a Risk Factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever\/Dengue Shock Syndrome: An Historical Perspective and Role of Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Infection","volume":"158","author":"MG Guzman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Archives of Virology"},{"issue":"5596","key":"pntd.0010367.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1038\/265739a0","article-title":"Antibody-Enhanced Dengue Virus Infection in Primate Leukocytes","volume":"265","author":"SB Halstead","year":"1977","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0010367.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3139","DOI":"10.4049\/jimmunol.147.9.3139","article-title":"Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Dengue Virus Infection Mediated by Bispecific Antibodies Against Cell Surface Molecules Other Than Fc Gamma Receptors","volume":"147","author":"BJ Mady","year":"1991","journal-title":"The Journal of Immunology"},{"issue":"5979","key":"pntd.0010367.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"745","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1185181","article-title":"Cross-Reacting Antibodies Enhance Dengue Virus Infection in Humans","volume":"328","author":"W Dejnirattisai","year":"2010","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref009","unstructured":"ISPF (2017) Population L\u00e9gale. http:\/\/www.ispf.pf\/bases\/Recensements\/2017\/poplegale.aspx."},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref010","first-page":"e45474","article-title":"Opportunities for Improved Surveillance and Control of Dengue from Age-Specific Case Data","author":"I Rodriguez-Barraquer","year":"2019","journal-title":"Elife 8. eLife Sciences Publications Limited"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010367.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008110","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008110","article-title":"Long-Term Persistence of Monotypic Dengue Transmission in Small Size Isolated Populations, French Polynesia, 1978\u20132014","volume":"14","author":"Y Teissier","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0010367.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1474","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0812.020170","article-title":"Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Infants: Research Opportunities Ignored","volume":"8","author":"SB Halstead","year":"2002","journal-title":"Emerging Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010367.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"558","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2403.171149","article-title":"Seroprevalence of Dengue and Chikungunya Virus Antibodies, French Polynesia, 2014\u20132015","volume":"24","author":"M Aubry","year":"2018","journal-title":"Emerging Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2015.10.005","article-title":"Seroprevalence of Arboviruses Among Blood Donors in French Polynesia, 2011\u20132013","volume":"41","author":"M Aubry","year":"2015","journal-title":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2015.06.005","article-title":"Silent Circulation of Ross River Virus in French Polynesia","volume":"37","author":"M Aubry","year":"2015","journal-title":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"10027","key":"pntd.0010367.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1531","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)00562-6","article-title":"Guillain-Barr\u00e9 Syndrome Outbreak Associated with Zika Virus Infection in French Polynesia: A Case-Control Study","volume":"387","author":"V-M Cao-Lormeau","year":"2016","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100513","DOI":"10.1016\/j.nmni.2019.01.009","article-title":"History of Arthropod-Borne Virus Infections in French Polynesia","volume":"29","author":"M Aubry","year":"2019","journal-title":"New Microbes and New Infections"},{"issue":"1384","key":"pntd.0010367.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"757","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1999.0428","article-title":"Transmission Dynamics and Epidemiology of Dengue: Insights from Age\u2013Stratified Sero\u2013Prevalence Surveys","volume":"354","author":"NM Ferguson","year":"1999","journal-title":"Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0010367.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"910","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.77.910","article-title":"Analysis of Repeat Hospital Admissions for Dengue to Estimate the Frequency of Third or Fourth Dengue Infections Resulting in Admissions and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, and Serotype Sequences","volume":"77","author":"RV Gibbons","year":"2007","journal-title":"The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010367.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a112790","article-title":"Antibody Against Hepatitis a in Seven European Countries: II. Statistical Analysis of Cross-Sectional Surveys","volume":"110","author":"D Schenzle","year":"1979","journal-title":"American Journal of Epidemiology"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010367.ref021","first-page":"419","article-title":"The Estimation of Age-Related Rates of Infection from Case Notifications and Serological Data","volume":"95","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"1985","journal-title":"Epidemiology & InfectionCambridge University Press"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0010367.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1000291","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1000291","article-title":"Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries","volume":"7","author":"M Kretzschmar","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"issue":"9720","key":"pntd.0010367.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)62126-7","article-title":"Incidence of 2009 Pandemic Influenza a H1n1 Infection in England: A Cross-Sectional Serological Study","volume":"375","author":"E Miller","year":"2010","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010367.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e935","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000935","article-title":"From Re-Emergence to Hyperendemicity: The Natural History of the Dengue Epidemic in Brazil","volume":"5","author":"I Rodriguez-Barraquer","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010367.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-12-21","article-title":"Measurement of Plasmodium Falciparum Transmission Intensity Using Serological Cohort Data from Indonesian Schoolchildren","volume":"12","author":"MT Bretscher","year":"2013","journal-title":"Malaria Journal"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref026","volume-title":"Catalytic Models in Epidemiology","author":"H. Muench","year":"2013"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref027","first-page":"e0003719","article-title":"Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9 (4)","author":"N Imai","year":"2015","journal-title":"Public Library of Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010367.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"604","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiv470","article-title":"Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission","volume":"213","author":"H Salje","year":"2016","journal-title":"The Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"86","key":"pntd.0010367.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2013.0414","article-title":"Interactions Between Serotypes of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact of Cross-Immunity","volume":"10","author":"NG Reich","year":"2013","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Society Interface"},{"issue":"7707","key":"pntd.0010367.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"719","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0157-4","article-title":"Reconstruction of Antibody Dynamics and Infection Histories to Evaluate Dengue Risk","volume":"557","author":"H Salje","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0010367.ref031","first-page":"1085","article-title":"Zika Virus, French Polynesia, South Pacific, 2013","volume":"20","author":"V-M Cao-Lormeau","year":"2014","journal-title":"Emerging Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"6331","key":"pntd.0010367.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1302","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaj9384","article-title":"Dengue Diversity Across Spatial and Temporal Scales: Local Structure and the Effect of Host Population Size","volume":"355","author":"H Salje","year":"2017","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0010367.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2357","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002357","article-title":"Symptomatic versus inapparent outcome in repeat dengue virus infections is influenced by the time interval between infections and study year","volume":"7","author":"M Montoya","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0010367.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1113","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2006.75.1113","article-title":"Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Caused by Sequential Dengue 1\u20133 Virus Infections over a Long Time Interval: Havana Epidemic, 2001\u20132002","volume":"75","author":"M Alvarez","year":"2006","journal-title":"The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010367.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e198","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2011.09.026","article-title":"Epidemiological Studies on Dengue Virus Type 3 in Playa Municipality, Havana, Cuba, 2001\u20132002","volume":"16","author":"MG Guzman","year":"2012","journal-title":"International Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0010367.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1102","DOI":"10.1038\/ni.3515","article-title":"Dengue Virus Sero-Cross-Reactivity Drives Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Infection with Zika Virus","volume":"17","author":"W Dejnirattisai","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nature Immunology"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010367.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/emi.2017.42","article-title":"Humoral Cross-Reactivity Between Zika and Dengue Viruses: Implications for Protection and Pathology","volume":"6","author":"L Priyamvada","year":"2017","journal-title":"Emerging Microbes & Infections"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010367.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1800820","article-title":"Effect of Dengue Serostatus on Dengue Vaccine Safety and Efficacy","volume":"379","author":"S Sridhar","year":"2018","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"pntd.0010367.ref039","author":"WHO","year":"2016","journal-title":"Summary of the April 2016 meeting of the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on immunization (SAGE)"},{"issue":"10234","key":"pntd.0010367.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1434","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30556-0","article-title":"Safety and Immunogenicity of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine in Children Aged 2\u201317 Years: A Randomised, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 2 Trial","volume":"395","author":"V Tricou","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"10234","key":"pntd.0010367.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1402","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30603-6","article-title":"Evaluation of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine by Serostatus and Serotype","volume":"395","author":"A. Wilder-Smith","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010367","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,13]],"date-time":"2022-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1665619200000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010367","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,21]],"date-time":"2023-02-21T16:02:13Z","timestamp":1676995333000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010367"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"William B.","family":"Messer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,3]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010367","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2022.03.31.22273157","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,3]]}}}