{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T15:12:06Z","timestamp":1792422726834,"version":"4.5.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010509","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,24]],"date-time":"2022-06-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1656028800000}}],"reference-count":57,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,13]],"date-time":"2022-06-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1655078400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010897","name":"newton fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["528154944"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["528154944"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010897","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Dengue fever (DF) represents a significant health burden in Vietnam, which is forecast to worsen under climate change. The development of an early-warning system for DF has been selected as a prioritised health adaptation measure to climate change in Vietnam.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This study aimed to develop an accurate DF prediction model in Vietnam using a wide range of meteorological factors as inputs to inform public health responses for outbreak prevention in the context of future climate change.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Convolutional neural network (CNN), Transformer, long short-term memory (LSTM), and attention-enhanced LSTM (LSTM-ATT) models were compared with traditional machine learning models on weather-based DF forecasting. Models were developed using lagged DF incidence and meteorological variables (measures of temperature, humidity, rainfall, evaporation, and sunshine hours) as inputs for 20 provinces throughout Vietnam. Data from 1997\u20132013 were used to train models, which were then evaluated using data from 2014\u20132016 by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Results and discussion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>LSTM-ATT displayed the highest performance, scoring average places of 1.60 for RMSE-based ranking and 1.95 for MAE-based ranking. Notably, it was able to forecast DF incidence better than LSTM in 13 or 14 out of 20 provinces for MAE or RMSE, respectively. Moreover, LSTM-ATT was able to accurately predict DF incidence and outbreak months up to 3 months ahead, though performance dropped slightly compared to short-term forecasts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning methods have been employed for the prediction of both long- and short-term DF incidence and outbreaks in Vietnam using unique, rich meteorological features.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec005\">\n<jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This study demonstrates the usefulness of deep learning models for meteorological factor-based DF forecasting. LSTM-ATT should be further explored for mitigation strategies against DF and other climate-sensitive diseases in the coming years.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010509","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,13]],"date-time":"2022-06-13T17:47:31Z","timestamp":1655142451000},"page":"e0010509","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":101,"title":["Deep learning models for forecasting dengue fever based on climate data in Vietnam"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3256-5626","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Van-Hau","family":"Nguyen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9191-577X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tran Thi","family":"Tuyet-Hanh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4160-2353","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"James","family":"Mulhall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4749-5536","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Hoang Van","family":"Minh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4703-4836","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Trung Q.","family":"Duong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0005-1855","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nguyen Van","family":"Chien","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1248-1070","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nguyen Thi Trang","family":"Nhung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vu Hoang","family":"Lan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hoang Ba","family":"Minh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0500-8282","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Do","family":"Cuong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7025-1871","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nguyen Ngoc","family":"Bich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nguyen Huu","family":"Quyen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tran Nu Quy","family":"Linh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nguyen Thi","family":"Tho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ngu Duy","family":"Nghia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Le Van Quoc","family":"Anh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Diep T. 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