{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T11:19:46Z","timestamp":1790162386630,"version":"4.1.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010599","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,21]],"date-time":"2022-07-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658361600000}}],"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,11]],"date-time":"2022-07-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1657497600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1177824"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1177824"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV-005121"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-005121"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1184344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1184344"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    <jats:italic>Gambiense<\/jats:italic>\n                    human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>By fitting two model variants\u2014one with, and one without animal transmission\u2014to the human case data from 2000\u20132016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>We conclude that there are 24\/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However\u2014even in these regions\u2014we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68\/158 to 61\/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147\/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010599","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,11]],"date-time":"2022-07-11T13:31:35Z","timestamp":1657546295000},"page":"e0010599","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9884-4900","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ronald E.","family":"Crump","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ching-I","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon E. F.","family":"Spencer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul E.","family":"Brown","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chansy","family":"Shampa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erick","family":"Mwamba Miaka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8414-7648","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kat S.","family":"Rock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,11]]},"reference":[{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0010599.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2004.06.004","article-title":"Disease eradication, elimination and control: the need for accurate and consistent usage","volume":"20","author":"DH Molyneux","year":"2004","journal-title":"Trends in Parasitology"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref002","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global Health Observatory: Dracunculiasis (Guinea-worm disease). 2022. Available from: https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/themes\/topics\/dracunculiasis-guinea-worm-disease."},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010599.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005495","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005495","article-title":"Guinea worm eradication: Progress and challenges\u2014should we beware of the dog?","volume":"11","author":"D Molyneux","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref004","first-page":"1","article-title":"Identifying Reservoirs of Infection: A Conceptual and Practical Challenge","author":"DT Haydon","year":"2002","journal-title":"Emerging Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010599.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed5040159","article-title":"A One Health Approach for Guinea Worm Disease Control: Scope and Opportunities","volume":"5","author":"MR Boyce","year":"2020","journal-title":"Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0010599.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008261","article-title":"Monitoring the elimination of human African trypanosomiasis at continental and country level: Update to 2018","volume":"14","author":"JR Franco","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010599.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2017.11.008","article-title":"Do cryptic reservoirs threaten gambiense-sleeping sickness elimination?","volume":"34","author":"P B\u00fcscher","year":"2018","journal-title":"Trends in Parasitology"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref008","first-page":"257","article-title":"Epidemiology of human African trypanosomiasis","volume":"6","author":"JR Franco","year":"2014","journal-title":"Clinical epidemiology"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1051\/parasite\/2020061","article-title":"Molecular identification of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense in naturally infected pigs, dogs and small ruminants confirms domestic animals as potential reservoirs for sleeping sickness in Chad","volume":"27","author":"Jo\u00ebl Vourchakb\u00e9","year":"2020","journal-title":"Parasite"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0010599.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"727","DOI":"10.1016\/0035-9203(47)90034-5","article-title":"The Second Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Chadwick Lecture. Observations on trypanosomissis in the Belgian Congo","volume":"40","author":"LMJJ Van Hoof","year":"1947","journal-title":"Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref011","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Control and surveillance of human African trypanosomiasis: report of a WHO expert committee. World Health Organization; 2013. 984."},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0010599.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008270","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008270","article-title":"Impact of tiny targets on Glossina fuscipes quanzensis, the primary vector of human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo","volume":"14","author":"I Tirados","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS neglected tropical diseases"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref013","unstructured":"World Health Organisation. Number of new reported cases of human African trypanosomiasis (T.b. gambiense); 2021. Available from: https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho\/data\/indicators\/indicator-details\/GHO\/hat-tb-gambiense."},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref014","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Ending the neglect to attain the Sustainable Development Goals: A road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021\u20132030. Geneva; 2020."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1002855","article-title":"Identifying Transmission Cycles at the Human-Animal Interface: The Role of Animal Reservoirs in Maintaining Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis","volume":"9","author":"S Funk","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLOS Computational Biology"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"532","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-015-1131-8","article-title":"Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC","volume":"8","author":"KS Rock","year":"2015","journal-title":"Parasites & Vectors"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"550","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-015-1121-x","article-title":"Evaluating long-term effectiveness of sleeping sickness control measures in Guinea","volume":"8","author":"A Pandey","year":"2015","journal-title":"Parasites & Vectors"},{"issue":"7","key":"pntd.0010599.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005792","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005792","article-title":"Adding tsetse control to medical activities contributes to decreasing transmission of sleeping sickness in the Mandoul focus (Chad)","volume":"11","author":"MH Mahamat","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-022-00934-8","article-title":"Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad","volume":"11","author":"KS Rock","year":"2022","journal-title":"Infectious Diseases of Poverty"},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0010599.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1004514","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004514","article-title":"Implications of heterogeneous biting exposure and animal hosts on Trypanosomiasis brucei gambiense transmission and control","volume":"11","author":"CM Stone","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLOS Computational Biology"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-9-57","article-title":"The Atlas of human African trypanosomiasis: a contribution to global mapping of neglected tropical diseases","volume":"9","author":"PP Simarro","year":"2010","journal-title":"International Journal of Health Geographics"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0010599.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006890","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006890","article-title":"Monitoring the elimination of human African trypanosomiasis: Update to 2016","volume":"12","author":"JR Franco","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0007976","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007976","article-title":"Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC)","volume":"14","author":"MS Casta\u00f1o","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1008532","article-title":"Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo","volume":"17","author":"RE Crump","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLOS Computational Biology"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2017.01.006","article-title":"Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC","volume":"18","author":"KS Rock","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1467","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001467","article-title":"Should I get screened for sleeping sickness? A qualitative study in Kasai province, Democratic Republic of Congo","volume":"6","author":"A Mpanya","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref027","volume-title":"Oxford Classic Texts in the Physical Sciences","author":"H Jeffreys","year":"1998"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010599.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"437","DOI":"10.1214\/17-BA1057","article-title":"Efficient Model Comparison Techniques for Models Requiring Large Scale Data Augmentation","volume":"13","author":"P Touloupou","year":"2018","journal-title":"Bayesian Anal"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010599.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1080\/00401706.1995.10484303","article-title":"Weighted Average Importance Sampling and Defensive Mixture Distributions","volume":"37","author":"T Hesterberg","year":"1995","journal-title":"Technometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010599.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-29192-w","article-title":"Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo","volume":"13","author":"CI Huang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nature communications"},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0010599.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0003822","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003822","article-title":"Tsetse Control and Gambian Sleeping Sickness; Implications for Control Strategy","volume":"9","author":"I Tirados","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0010599.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003727","article-title":"Reducing human-tsetse contact significantly enhances the efficacy of sleeping sickness active screening campaigns: a promising result in the context of elimination","volume":"9","author":"F Courtin","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e17716","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.17716","article-title":"The skin is a significant but overlooked anatomical reservoir for vector-borne African trypanosomes","volume":"5","author":"P Capewell","year":"2016","journal-title":"Elife"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.3000105","article-title":"Resolving the apparent transmission paradox of African sleeping sickness","volume":"17","author":"P Capewell","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLOS Biology"},{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0010599.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1009367","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1009367","article-title":"Modelling to explore the potential impact of asymptomatic human infections on transmission and dynamics of African sleeping sickness","volume":"17","author":"M Aliee","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS computational biology"},{"key":"pntd.0010599.ref036","first-page":"jiz588","article-title":"Screening strategies for a sustainable endpoint for gambiense sleeping sickness","author":"MS Casta\u00f1o","year":"2019","journal-title":"The Journal of Infectious Diseases"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010599.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trab019","article-title":"Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo","volume":"115","author":"M Aliee","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"},{"issue":"173","key":"pntd.0010599.ref038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20200540","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2020.0540","article-title":"Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches","volume":"17","author":"M Aliee","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Society Interface"},{"issue":"Supplement_3","key":"pntd.0010599.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S146","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciab190","article-title":"Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data","volume":"72","author":"CN Davis","year":"2021","journal-title":"Clinical infectious diseases"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010599.ref040","first-page":"1","article-title":"Modelling for policy: The five principles of the neglected tropical diseases modelling consortium","volume":"1404","author":"for the NTD Modelling Consortium","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases,"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010599","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,21]],"date-time":"2022-07-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658361600000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010599","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,21]],"date-time":"2022-07-21T14:08:54Z","timestamp":1658412534000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010599"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Alberto Novaes","family":"Ramos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,11]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,11]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010599","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2021.12.15.21267833","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,11]]}}}