{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T16:31:17Z","timestamp":1791822677624,"version":"4.3.4"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010620","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,28]],"date-time":"2022-07-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658966400000}}],"reference-count":92,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,18]],"date-time":"2022-07-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1658102400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"UNICEF\/UNDP\/World Bank\/World Health Organization Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases","award":["B80149, B80153, and B80296"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["B80149, B80153, and B80296"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001215","name":"La Trobe University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LTUPRS"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LTUPRS"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001215","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas requiring interventions and to monitor progress.\n                      <jats:italic>Onchocerca volvulus<\/jats:italic>\n                      nodule prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is spatially continuous and heterogeneous, and highly endemic areas may contribute to transmission in areas of low endemicity or vice-versa. Ethiopia is one such onchocerciasis-endemic country with heterogeneous\n                      <jats:italic>O<\/jats:italic>\n                      .\n                      <jats:italic>volvulus<\/jats:italic>\n                      nodule prevalence, and many districts are still unmapped despite their potential for onchocerciasis transmission.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methodology\/Principle findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      A Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted for retrospective pre-intervention nodule prevalence data collected from 916 unique sites and 35,077 people across Ethiopia. We used multiple environmental, socio-demographic, and climate variables to estimate the pre-intervention prevalence of\n                      <jats:italic>O<\/jats:italic>\n                      .\n                      <jats:italic>volvulus<\/jats:italic>\n                      nodules across Ethiopia and to explore their relationship with prevalence. Prevalence was high in southern and northwestern Ethiopia and low in Ethiopia\u2019s central and eastern parts. Distance to the nearest river (RR: 0.9850, 95% BCI: 0.9751\u20130.995), precipitation seasonality (RR: 0.9837, 95% BCI: 0.9681\u20130.9995), and flow accumulation (RR: 0.9586, 95% BCI: 0.9321\u20130.9816) were negatively associated with\n                      <jats:italic>O<\/jats:italic>\n                      .\n                      <jats:italic>volvulus<\/jats:italic>\n                      nodule prevalence, while soil moisture (RR: 1.0218, 95% BCI: 1.0135\u20131.0302) was positively associated. The model estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of\n                      <jats:italic>O<\/jats:italic>\n                      .\n                      <jats:italic>volvulus<\/jats:italic>\n                      nodules in Ethiopia to be around 6.48 million (95% BCI: 3.53\u201313.04 million).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions\/Significance<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Nodule prevalence distribution was correlated with habitat suitability for vector breeding and associated biting behavior. The modeled pre-intervention prevalence can be used as a guide for determining priorities for elimination mapping in regions of Ethiopia that are currently unmapped, most of which have comparatively low infection prevalence.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010620","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,18]],"date-time":"2022-07-18T13:33:36Z","timestamp":1658151216000},"page":"e0010620","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Himal","family":"Shrestha","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"McCulloch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7499-7662","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shannon M.","family":"Hedtke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Warwick N.","family":"Grant","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"pntd.0010620.ref001","author":"P Diggle","year":"2007"},{"key":"pntd.0010620.ref002","author":"CRC Press","year":"2020"},{"issue":"suppl_1","key":"pntd.0010620.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i14","DOI":"10.1093\/inthealth\/ihx052","article-title":"Onchocerciasis: shifting the target from control to elimination requires a new first-step\u2014elimination mapping","volume":"10","author":"MP Rebollo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int Health"},{"key":"pntd.0010620.ref004","author":"P. 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