{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T01:53:43Z","timestamp":1790042023486,"version":"4.0.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,22]],"date-time":"2022-09-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663804800000}}],"reference-count":64,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]],"date-time":"2022-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662940800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SFRH\/BD\/139753\/2018"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SFRH\/BD\/139753\/2018"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CEECIND\/02037\/2017;"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CEECIND\/02037\/2017;"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e Tecnologia","award":["GHTM-UID\/Multi\/04413\/2013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GHTM-UID\/Multi\/04413\/2013"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/GES -OUT\/30210\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/GES -OUT\/30210\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/SAU-PUB\/30089\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/SAU-PUB\/30089\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/00295\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/00295\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDP\/00295\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/00295\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/00295\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/00295\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDP\/00295\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/00295\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/GES -OUT\/30210\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/GES -OUT\/30210\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/SAU-PUB\/30089\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/SAU-PUB\/30089\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/00295\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/00295\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDP\/00295\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/00295\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/GES -OUT\/30210\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/GES -OUT\/30210\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PTDC\/SAU-PUB\/30089\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PTDC\/SAU-PUB\/30089\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic> mosquito is the main vector for several diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. This species was first identified on Madeira Island in 2005, and between 2012 and 2013 was responsible for an outbreak of dengue that affected several thousand people. However, the potential distribution of the species on the island remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the suitability of current and future climatic conditions to the species on the island and complement this assessment with estimates of the suitability of land use and human settlement conditions. We used four modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, generalized additive models, generalized linear models and random forest) and data on the distribution of the species worldwide and across the island. For both climatic and non-climatic factors, suitability estimates predicted the current distribution of the species with good accuracy (mean area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = 0.88 \u00b10.06, mean true skill statistic = 0.72 \u00b10.1). Minimum temperature of coldest month was the most influential climatic predictor, while human population density, residential housing density and public spaces were the most influential predictors describing land use and human settlement conditions. Suitable areas under current climates are predicted to occur mainly in the warmer and densely inhabited coastal areas of the southern part of the island, where the species is already established. By mid-century (2041\u20132060), the extent of climatically suitable areas is expected to increase, mainly towards higher altitudes and in the eastern part of the island. Our work shows that ongoing efforts to monitor and prevent the spread of <jats:italic>Ae<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>aegypti<\/jats:italic> on Madeira Island will have to increasingly consider the effects of climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]],"date-time":"2022-09-12T17:38:46Z","timestamp":1663004326000},"page":"e0010715","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["The current and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) on Madeira Island"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7119-6280","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Maur\u00edcio","family":"Santos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C\u00e9sar","family":"Capinha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jorge","family":"Rocha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carla Alexandra","family":"Sousa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14435","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms14435","article-title":"No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide","volume":"8","author":"H Seebens","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0010715.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1328","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.13109","article-title":"Human-induced globalization of insular herpetofaunas","volume":"29","author":"C Capinha","year":"2020","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Biogeogr"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010715.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-014-0918-y","article-title":"Macroclimate determines the global range limit of Aedes aegypti","volume":"11","author":"C Capinha","year":"2014","journal-title":"EcohealthSep"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref004","first-page":"1","article-title":"Estimating past, present, and future trends in the global distribution and abundance of the arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios.","volume":"7","author":"J Liu-Helmersson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front Public Heal"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref005","first-page":"25","article-title":"Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus","volume":"67","author":"S Leta","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Infect Dis IJID Off Publ Int Soc Infect Dis"},{"issue":"322","key":"pntd.0010715.ref006","first-page":"53","article-title":"on the Presence of a Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, 1762 (Insecta, Diptera, Culicidae) in the Island of Madeira (Portugal).","volume":"1762","author":"Y Gon\u00e7alves","year":"2008","journal-title":"Bol do Mus Munic do Funchal (Hist\u00f3ria Nat."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2241","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-38373-x","article-title":"Origin and expansion of the mosquito Aedes aegypti in Madeira Island (Portugal).","volume":"9","author":"G Seixas","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref008","unstructured":"ECDC EC for DP and C. Dengue outbreak in Madeira, Portugal, October-November 2012. [Internet]. Mission Report. 2013. iv-pp. Available from: http:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/publications\/Publications\/dengue-outbreak-madeira-mission-report-nov-2012.pdf"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref009","unstructured":"Dire\u00e7\u00e3o Regional da Sa\u00fade\u2014Mosquito Aedes aegypti [Internet]. 2021. Available from: https:\/\/www.iasaude.pt\/Mosquito\/index.php\/o-mosquito"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010715.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2435.2008.01538.x","article-title":"Integrating biophysical models and evolutionary theory to predict climatic impacts on species\u2019 ranges: the dengue mosquito Aedes aegypti in Australia","volume":"23","author":"M Kearney","year":"2009","journal-title":"Funct Ecol"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-6785-14-3","article-title":"A meta-analysis of the factors influencing development rate variation in Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).","volume":"14","author":"J Couret","year":"2014","journal-title":"BMC Ecol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010715.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1111\/mve.12422","article-title":"Could land cover influence Aedes aegypti mosquito populations?","volume":"34","author":"EM Benitez","year":"2020","journal-title":"Med Vet Entomol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.1016\/j.micinf.2009.12.011","article-title":"The dengue vector Aedes aegypti: what comes next","volume":"12","author":"CC Jansen","year":"2010","journal-title":"Microbes Infect"},{"issue":"May","key":"pntd.0010715.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2019.05.023","article-title":"Using species distribution model to predict the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Japanese whiting Sillago japonica","volume":"104","author":"Z Zhang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol Indic"},{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0010715.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1508","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0476-8","article-title":"The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue","volume":"4","author":"JP Messina","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Microbiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010715.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.12664","article-title":"Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-endemic regions of Pakistan","volume":"21","author":"SH Fatima","year":"2016","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Heal"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-018-2832-6","article-title":"Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal.","volume":"11","author":"R Richman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Parasites and Vectors"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"677","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120159","article-title":"Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time.","volume":"40","author":"J Elith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref019","first-page":"e08347","article-title":"The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus","volume":"4","author":"MUG Kraemer","year":"2015","journal-title":"ElifeInternet]"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref020","first-page":"1","article-title":"Determining environmental and anthropogenic factors which explain the global distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae","volume":"3","author":"H Sun","year":"2018","journal-title":"Albopictus. BMJ Glob Heal"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.2495\/DNE-V4-N4-413-422","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on the terrestrial ecosystems of Madeira.","volume":"4","author":"MJ Cruz","year":"2009","journal-title":"Int J Des Nat Ecodynamics"},{"issue":"11","key":"pntd.0010715.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1231","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12624","article-title":"Global scenarios for biodiversity need to better integrate climate and land use change.","volume":"23","author":"N Titeux","year":"2017","journal-title":"Divers Distrib"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-50953-z","article-title":"Interactive spatial scale effects on species distribution modeling: The case of the giant panda.","volume":"9","author":"T Connor","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0010715.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2785","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-011-9963-4","article-title":"Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments","volume":"13","author":"A Jim\u00e9nez-Valverde","year":"2011","journal-title":"Biol Invasions"},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0010715.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1094","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12191","article-title":"Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species","volume":"23","author":"Y Li","year":"2014","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Biogeogr"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref026","unstructured":"Gbif.Org O. GBIF Occurrence Download [Internet]. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility; 2019. Available from: https:\/\/www.gbif.org\/occurrence\/download\/0012884-190621201848488"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02902","article-title":"Climate change may drive cave spiders to extinction.","volume":"41","author":"S Mammola","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170122","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2017.122","article-title":"Climatologies at high resolution for the earth\u2019s land surface areas","volume":"4","author":"DN Karger","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci Data"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010715.ref029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0087468","article-title":"Temperature, larval diet, and density effects on development rate and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).","volume":"9","author":"J Couret","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0151-4","article-title":"RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100","volume":"109","author":"AM Thomson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Clim Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1446","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-09519-w","article-title":"Uncertainty in ensembles of global biodiversity scenarios","volume":"10","author":"W Thuiller","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"13","key":"pntd.0010715.ref032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5171","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-14-00362.1","article-title":"A representative democracy to reduce interdependency in a multimodel ensemble.","volume":"28","author":"BM Sanderson","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010715.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-38.3.411","article-title":"Why do female Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) feed preferentially and frequently on human blood?","volume":"38","author":"LC Harrington","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0095606","article-title":"Winter refuge for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes in Hanoi during winter","volume":"9","author":"T Tsunoda","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010715.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2005.72.209","article-title":"Dispersal of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti within and between rural communities","volume":"72","author":"LC Harrington","year":"2005","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"665","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0513","article-title":"Dispersal of male Aedes aegypti in a coastal village in southern Mexico","volume":"86","author":"L Valerio","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010715.ref037","first-page":"727","article-title":"Dasymetric Mapping for Estimating Population in Small Areas. Geogr Compass","volume":"3","author":"J. Mennis","year":"2009","journal-title":"Internet]"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010715.ref038","first-page":"199","article-title":"Comparison of Dasymetric Mapping Techniques for Small-Area Population Estimates. Cartogr Geogr Inf Sci","volume":"37","author":"PA Zandbergen","year":"2010","journal-title":"Internet]"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref039","unstructured":"Naimi B. Usdm: Uncertainty analysis for species distribution models. 2015 Jan 1;1:1\u201312."},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chatterjee S, Hadi AS. Variable Selection Procedures [Internet]. Regression Analysis by Example. 2006. p. 281\u2013315. (Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics). Available from: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/0470055464.ch11","DOI":"10.1002\/0470055464.ch11"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref041","first-page":"368","article-title":"sdm: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling. Ecography","volume":"39","author":"B Naimi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Internet]"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0010715.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e01370","DOI":"10.1002\/ecm.1370","article-title":"A comprehensive evaluation of predictive performance of 33 species distribution models at species and community levels","volume":"89","author":"A Norberg","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol Monogr"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e01486","DOI":"10.1002\/ecm.1486","article-title":"Predictive performance of presence-only species distribution models: a benchmark study with reproducible code","volume":"92","author":"R Valavi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ecol Monogr"},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0010715.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1455","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2007.01720.x","article-title":"Predicting species distributions: a critical comparison of the most common statistical models using artificial species","volume":"34","author":"CN Meynard","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0010715.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1029","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.13555","article-title":"Improving species distribution models for invasive non-native species with biologically informed pseudo-absence selection","volume":"46","author":"D Chapman","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010715.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210X.2011.00172.x","article-title":"Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models: How, where and how many?","volume":"3","author":"M Barbet-Massin","year":"2012","journal-title":"Methods Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0010715.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.1086\/600087","article-title":"Abundance and the environmental niche: environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance","volume":"174","author":"J VanDerWal","year":"2009","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref048","article-title":"The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. Albopictus.","volume":"4","author":"MUG Kraemer","year":"2015","journal-title":"Elife"},{"key":"pntd.0010715.ref049","volume-title":"Ecology, Biodiversity and Conservation","author":"A Guisan","year":"2017"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0010715.ref050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x","article-title":"Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS).","volume":"43","author":"O Allouche","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Appl Ecol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"498","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2011.00683.x","article-title":"Insights into the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a discrimination measure in species distribution modelling.","volume":"21","author":"A. Jim\u00e9nez-Valverde","year":"2012","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Biogeogr"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0010715.ref052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1517","DOI":"10.1007\/s10531-018-1507-0","article-title":"Snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus): potential distribution and its implication for conservation","volume":"27","author":"J N\u00fcchel","year":"2018","journal-title":"Biodivers Conserv"},{"issue":"11","key":"pntd.0010715.ref053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e112764","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0112764","article-title":"The Predictive Performance and Stability of Six Species Distribution Models","volume":"9","author":"R-Y Duan","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"11","key":"pntd.0010715.ref054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1810","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.011","article-title":"The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling","volume":"222","author":"N Barve","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2006.09.010","article-title":"Ensemble forecasting of species distributions","volume":"22","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2007","journal-title":"Trends Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"629","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.12227","article-title":"Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, overfitting and evaluationApr","volume":"41","author":"A Radosavljevic","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0010715.ref057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"731","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.12043","article-title":"Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes","volume":"27","author":"C Capinha","year":"2013","journal-title":"Conserv Biol"},{"issue":"16","key":"pntd.0010715.ref058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5973","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.2332","article-title":"A comparison of absolute performance of different correlative and mechanistic species distribution models in an independent area.","volume":"6","author":"F Shabani","year":"2016","journal-title":"Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1111\/jbi.13734","article-title":"Model complexity affects species distribution projections under climate change","volume":"47","author":"P Brun","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Biogeogr"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210x.2012.00264.x","article-title":"Downscaling of species distribution models: A hierarchical approach","volume":"4","author":"P Keil","year":"2013","journal-title":"Methods Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-019-0038-1","article-title":"Statistically downscaled climate dataset for East Africa","volume":"6","author":"SH Gebrechorkos","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci Data"},{"issue":"7","key":"pntd.0010715.ref062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"797","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12199","article-title":"Uncertainty, priors, autocorrelation and disparate data in downscaling of species distributions","volume":"20","author":"P Keil","year":"2014","journal-title":"Divers Distrib"},{"issue":"7335","key":"pntd.0010715.ref063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1038\/nature09670","article-title":"Climate change and evolutionary adaptation","volume":"470","author":"AA Hoffmann","year":"2011","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010715.ref064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7733","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-26092-2","article-title":"Niche conservatism of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti\u2014two mosquito species with different invasion histories","volume":"8","author":"S Cunze","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci Rep"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,22]],"date-time":"2022-09-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663804800000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,22]],"date-time":"2022-09-22T18:38:16Z","timestamp":1663871896000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Joseph T.","family":"Wu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]]},"references-count":64,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715","relation":{"new_version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010715","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]]}}}