{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T01:15:07Z","timestamp":1773796507094,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":74,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,22]],"date-time":"2022-12-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1671667200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/publicdomain\/zero\/1.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01-AI091980"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01-AI091980"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01-AI139085"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01-AI139085"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008982","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["RTG\/DMS-1246991"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RTG\/DMS-1246991"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008982","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The importance of mosquitoes in human pathogen transmission has motivated major research efforts into mosquito biology in pursuit of more effective vector control measures.\n                    <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    is a particular concern in tropical urban areas, where it is the primary vector of numerous flaviviruses, including the yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses. With an anthropophilic habit,\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    prefers houses, human blood meals, and ovipositioning in water-filled containers. We hypothesized that this relatively simple ecological niche should allow us to predict the impacts of insecticidal control measures on mosquito populations. To do this, we use Skeeter Buster 2 (SB2), a stochastic, spatially explicit, mechanistic model of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    population biology. SB2 builds on Skeeter Buster, which reproduced equilibrium dynamics of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    in Iquitos, Peru. Our goal was to validate SB2 by predicting the response of mosquito populations to perturbations by indoor insecticidal spraying and widespread destructive insect surveys.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    To evaluate SB2, we conducted two field experiments in Iquitos, Peru: a smaller pilot study in 2013 (S-2013) followed by a larger experiment in 2014 (L-2014). Here, we compare model predictions with (previously reported) empirical results from these experiments. In both simulated and empirical populations, repeated spraying yielded substantial yet temporary reductions in adult densities. The proportional effects of spraying were broadly comparable between simulated and empirical results, but we found noteworthy differences. In particular, SB2 consistently over-estimated the proportion of nulliparous females and the proportion of containers holding immature mosquitoes. We also observed less temporal variation in simulated surveys of adult abundance relative to corresponding empirical observations. Our results indicate the presence of ecological heterogeneities or sampling processes not effectively represented by SB2. Although additional empirical research could further improve the accuracy and precision of SB2, our results underscore the importance of non-linear dynamics in the response of\n                    <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                    populations to perturbations, and suggest general limits to the fine-grained predictability of its population dynamics over space and time.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010863","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,22]],"date-time":"2022-12-22T13:29:52Z","timestamp":1671715792000},"page":"e0010863","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A critical assessment of the detailed Aedes aegypti simulation model Skeeter Buster 2 using field experiments of indoor insecticidal control in Iquitos, Peru"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6403-6553","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christian E.","family":"Gunning","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6224-5984","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Amy C.","family":"Morrison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1889-4538","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kenichi W.","family":"Okamoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2947-8123","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Thomas W.","family":"Scott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Helvio","family":"Astete","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gissella M.","family":"V\u00e1squez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8597-5306","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Fred","family":"Gould","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6389-6321","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Alun L.","family":"Lloyd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"7446","key":"pntd.0010863.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"S Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0010863.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0003655","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003655","article-title":"A critical assessment of vector control for dengue prevention","volume":"9","author":"NL Achee","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0010863.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0346","article-title":"The epidemiology of dengue in the Americas over the last three decades: a worrisome 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