{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T06:07:27Z","timestamp":1790834847938,"version":"4.1.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,26]],"date-time":"2023-01-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1674691200000}}],"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]],"date-time":"2023-01-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1673568000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease affecting millions yearly, mostly in tropical and subtropical countries. Driven mainly by social and environmental factors, dengue incidence and geographical expansion have increased in recent decades. Therefore, understanding how climate variables drive dengue outbreaks is challenging and a problem of interest for decision-makers that could aid in improving surveillance and resource allocation. Here, we explore the effect of climate variables on relative dengue risk in 32 cantons of interest for public health authorities in Costa Rica. Relative dengue risk is forecast using a Generalized Additive Model for location, scale, and shape and a Random Forest approach. Models use a training period from 2000 to 2020 and predicted climatic variables obtained with a vector auto-regressive model. Results show reliable projections, and climate variables predictions allow for a prospective instead of a retrospective study.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]],"date-time":"2023-01-13T18:44:41Z","timestamp":1673635481000},"page":"e0011047","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Assessing dengue fever risk in Costa Rica by using climate variables and machine learning techniques"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Luis A.","family":"Barboza","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shu-Wei","family":"Chou-Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paola","family":"V\u00e1squez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1990-9110","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Yury E.","family":"Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juan G.","family":"Calvo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hugo G.","family":"Hidalgo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fabio","family":"Sanchez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]},"reference":[{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0011047.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1760","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001760","article-title":"Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus","volume":"6","author":"OJ Brady","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLOS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0011047.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tim.2013.12.011","article-title":"Global spread of dengue virus types: mapping the 70 year history","volume":"22","author":"JP Messina","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trends Microbiol"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0011047.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"480","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.11.3.480","article-title":"Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever","volume":"11","author":"DJ Gubler","year":"1998","journal-title":"Clin Microbiol Rev"},{"key":"pntd.0011047.ref004","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global strategy for dengue prevention and control 2012-2020; 2012. 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Estad\u00edsticas Vitales 2021. [cited 2022 May 20]. Available from: https:\/\/admin.inec.cr\/sites\/default\/files\/2022-11\/repoblacdef-2021a-estadisticas_vitales_2021.pdf."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0011047.ref012","first-page":"1","article-title":"Climate-driven statistical models as effective predictors of local dengue incidence in Costa Rica: a generalized additive model and random forest approach","volume":"27","author":"P V\u00e1squez","year":"2020","journal-title":"Revista de Matematica: Teor\u00eda y Aplicaciones"},{"key":"pntd.0011047.ref013","unstructured":"Ministerio de Salud. Sitio web del Ministerio de Salud de Costa Rica. 2022 [cited 2022 April 17]. Available from: https:\/\/www.ministeriodesalud.go.cr\/index.php\/biblioteca-de-archivos-left\/documentos-ministerio-de-salud\/material-informativo\/material-publicado\/boletines\/boletines-vigilancia-vs-enfermedades-de-transmision-vectorial."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0011047.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"150066","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2015.66","article-title":"The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations\u2013a new environmental record for monitoring extremes","volume":"2","author":"C Funk","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci Data"},{"key":"pntd.0011047.ref015","unstructured":"NOAA. 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Plan general de la emergencia: Decreto N\u00ba 39526-MP-S \u201cEstado de emergencia por la proliferaci\u00f3n del vector del dengue, chikungunya y el zika\u201d. 2016 [cited 2022 16 April]. Available from: http:\/\/www.pgrweb.go.cr\/scij\/Busqueda\/Normativa\/Normas\/nrm_texto_completo.aspx?param1=NRTC&nValor1=1&nValor2=82834&nValor3=106102&strTipM=TC."},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0011047.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"342","DOI":"10.1093\/heapol\/7.4.342","article-title":"Effectiveness of community participation in vector-borne disease control","volume":"7","author":"P Winch","year":"1992","journal-title":"Health Policy Plan"},{"key":"pntd.0011047.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"871","DOI":"10.2147\/RMHP.S361106","article-title":"Dengue early warning system as outbreak prediction tool: A systematic review","volume":"15","author":"M Baharom","year":"2022","journal-title":"Risk Manag Healthc Policy"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,26]],"date-time":"2023-01-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1674691200000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,26]],"date-time":"2023-01-26T18:54:22Z","timestamp":1674759262000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Mary H.","family":"Hayden","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]},"references-count":40,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047","relation":{"new_version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011047","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]]}}}