{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T09:22:32Z","timestamp":1782552152526,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":52,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,19]],"date-time":"2023-05-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1684454400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002855","name":"Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["grant 2022YFC2304901"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant 2022YFC2304901"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002855","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["grant 81370520"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant 81370520"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004610","name":"Science and Technology Support Program of Jiangsu Province","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["grant BE2015655"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant BE2015655"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004610","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Chinese Society of Academic Degress and Graduate Education","award":["grant 2020ZDB55"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant 2020ZDB55"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009156","name":"Nantong Science and Technology Bureau","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["grant HS2020001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant HS2020001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009156","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and further quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD dynamics.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We collected monthly province-level HFMD incidence and related environmental and socioeconomic data in China during 2009\u20132018. Hierarchical Bayesian models were constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between regional HFMD and various covariates: linear and nonlinear effects for environmental covariates, and linear effects for socioeconomic covariates.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases was highly heterogeneous, indicated by the Lorenz curves and the corresponding Gini indices. The peak time (R<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> = 0.65, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic> = 0.009), annual amplitude (R<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> = 0.94, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>&lt;0.001), and semi-annual periodicity contribution (R<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> = 0.88, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>&lt;0.001) displayed marked latitudinal gradients in Central China region. The most likely cluster areas for HFMD were located in south China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan) from April 2013 to October 2017. The Bayesian models achieved the best predictive performance (R<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> = 0.87, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>&lt;0.001). We found significant nonlinear associations between monthly average temperature, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index and HFMD transmission. Besides, population density (RR = 1.261; 95%CI, 1.169\u20131.353), birth rate (RR = 1.058; 95%CI, 1.025\u20131.090), real GDP per capita (RR = 1.163; 95%CI, 1.033\u20131.310) and school vacation (RR = 0.507; 95%CI, 0.459\u20130.559) were identified to have positive or negative effects on HFMD respectively. Our model could successfully predict months with HFMD outbreaks versus non-outbreaks in provinces of China from Jan 2009 to Dec 2018.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Our study highlights the importance of refined spatial and temporal data, as well as environmental and socioeconomic information, on HFMD transmission dynamics. The spatiotemporal analysis framework may provide insights into adjusting regional interventions to local conditions and temporal variations in broader natural and social sciences.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011286","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,19]],"date-time":"2023-05-19T17:21:55Z","timestamp":1684516915000},"page":"e0011286","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous 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