{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T06:20:16Z","timestamp":1790835616700,"version":"4.1.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011717","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,7]],"date-time":"2024-05-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1715040000000}}],"reference-count":40,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714003200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"French governement","award":["Pacific Fund"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Pacific Fund"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100011061","name":"Agence Fran\u00e7aise de D\u00e9veloppement","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ECOMORE 2"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ECOMORE 2"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100011061","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100018694","name":"HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["101027577"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["101027577"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100018694","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Leptospirosis is a neglected zoonosis which remains poorly known despite its epidemic potential, especially in tropical islands where outdoor lifestyle, vulnerability to invasive reservoir species and hot and rainy climate constitute higher risks for infections. Burden remains poorly documented while outbreaks can easily overflow health systems of these isolated and poorly populated areas. Identification of generic patterns driving leptospirosis dynamics across tropical islands would help understand its epidemiology for better preparedness of communities. In this study, we aim to model leptospirosis seasonality and outbreaks in tropical islands based on precipitation and temperature indicators.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methodology\/Principal findings<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We adjusted machine learning models on leptospirosis surveillance data from seven tropical islands (Guadeloupe, Reunion Island, Fiji, Futuna, New Caledonia, and Tahiti) to investigate 1) the effect of climate on the disease\u2019s seasonal dynamic, <jats:italic>i<\/jats:italic>.<jats:italic>e<\/jats:italic>., the centered seasonal profile and 2) inter-annual anomalies, <jats:italic>i<\/jats:italic>.<jats:italic>e<\/jats:italic>., the incidence deviations from the seasonal profile. The model was then used to estimate seasonal dynamics of leptospirosis in Vanuatu and Puerto Rico where disease incidence data were not available. A robust model, validated across different islands with leave-island-out cross-validation and based on current and 2-month lagged precipitation and current and 1-month lagged temperature, can be constructed to estimate the seasonal dynamic of leptospirosis. In opposition, climate determinants and their importance in estimating inter-annual anomalies highly differed across islands.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions\/Significance<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Climate appears as a strong determinant of leptospirosis seasonality in tropical islands regardless of the diversity of the considered environments and the different lifestyles across the islands. However, predictive and expandable abilities from climate indicators weaken when estimating inter-annual outbreaks and emphasize the importance of these local characteristics in the occurrence of outbreaks.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011717","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T17:50:33Z","timestamp":1714067433000},"page":"e0011717","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":25,"title":["Climate-driven models of leptospirosis dynamics in tropical islands from three oceanic 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