{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,13]],"date-time":"2026-04-13T23:45:00Z","timestamp":1776123900621,"version":"3.50.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,5]],"date-time":"2024-07-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1720137600000}}],"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,24]],"date-time":"2024-06-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719187200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in the United States, resulting in hundreds of reported cases yearly in California alone. The transmission cycle occurs mostly in birds and mosquitoes, making meteorological conditions, such as temperature, especially important to transmission characteristics. Given that future increases in temperature are all but inevitable due to worldwide climate change, determining associations between temperature and WNV incidence in humans, as well as making predictions on future cases, are important to public health agencies in California. Using surveillance data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and vector and host data from VectorSurv, we created GEE autoregressive and zero-inflated regression models to determine the role of temperature and other environmental factors in WNV incidence and predictions. An increase in temperature was found to be associated with an increase in incidence in 11 high-burden Californian counties between 2017\u20132022 (IRR = 1.06), holding location, time of year, and rainfall constant. A hypothetical increase of two degrees Fahrenheit\u2014predicted for California by 2040\u2014would have resulted in upwards of 20 excess cases per year during our study period. Using 2017\u20132021 as a training set, meteorological and host\/vector data were able to closely predict 2022 incidence, though the models did overestimate the peak number of cases. The zero-inflated model closely predicted the low number of cases in winter months but performed worse than the GEE model during high-transmission periods. These findings suggests that climate change will, and may be already, altering transmission dynamics and incidence of WNV in California, and provides tools to help predict incidence into the future.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,24]],"date-time":"2024-06-24T19:36:12Z","timestamp":1719257772000},"page":"e0012051","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Exploring the role of temperature and other environmental factors in West Nile virus incidence and prediction in California counties from 2017\u20132022 using a zero-inflated model"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-4153-4051","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Noah","family":"Parker","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref001","article-title":"Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada.","author":"L Albrecht","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1369","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1008.040077","article-title":"West Nile virus in California","volume":"10","author":"W Reisen","year":"2004","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008841","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008841","article-title":"West Nile virus in California, 2003\u20132018: A persistent threat.","volume":"14","author":"RE Snyder","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0010375","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010375","article-title":"Evaluation of the effectiveness of the California mosquito-borne virus surveillance & response plan, 2009\u20132018.","volume":"16","author":"ME Danforth","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1049","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.0800487","article-title":"Infectious Disease in a Warming World: How Weather Influenced West Nile Virus in the United States (2001\u20132005).","volume":"117","author":"JE Soverow","year":"2009","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1603\/ME13003","article-title":"The Effect of Temperature on Life History Traits of Culex Mosquitoes","volume":"51","author":"AT Ciota","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"629","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2007.0101","article-title":"Impact of Extrinsic Incubation Temperature and Virus Exposure on Vector Competence of Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) for West Nile Virus.","volume":"7","author":"SL Richards","year":"2007","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis Larchmt N."},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"087006","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP10287","article-title":"Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America","volume":"130","author":"MC Wimberly","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"851","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2019.2437","article-title":"Environmental and Sociological Factors Associated with the Incidence of West Nile Virus Cases in the Northern San Joaquin Valley of California, 2011\u20132015.","volume":"19","author":"E Hernandez","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref010","author":"Data and Maps | West Nile Virus","year":"2023","journal-title":"CDC"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref011","article-title":"Climate at a Glance: Statewide Time Series","author":"National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)","year":"2024"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e193175","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2019.3175","article-title":"Modeling and Surveillance of Reporting Delays of Mosquitoes and Humans Infected With West Nile Virus and Associations With Accuracy of West Nile Virus Forecasts","volume":"2","author":"NB DeFelice","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref013","article-title":"Zero-Inflated Poisson and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Models Using the COUNTREG Procedure.","author":"D Erdman","year":"2008","journal-title":"SAS Inst."},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref014","volume-title":"NCSS Doc.","author":"Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression","year":"2023"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref015","volume-title":"NCSS Doc.","author":"Negative Binomial Regression","year":"2023"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref016","unstructured":"12.1\u2014Introduction to Generalized Estimating Equations [Internet]. Penn State Eberly Coll. Sci. [cited 2023 Dec 26]. Available from: https:\/\/online.stat.psu.edu\/stat504\/book\/export\/html\/797"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref017","unstructured":"Cayan D, Kalansky J, Pierce D, Gershunov A. FAQ: Climate Change in California | Scripps Institution of Oceanography [Internet]. UC San Diego. [cited 2023 Dec 26]. Available from: https:\/\/scripps.ucsd.edu\/research\/climate-change-resources\/faq-climate-change-california"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref018","first-page":"17","article-title":"Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for California\u2019s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.","author":"D Pierce","year":"2018","journal-title":"California Energy Commission;"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref019","article-title":"California heat waves in the present and future","author":"A Gershunov","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geophys Res Lett"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1013","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.14-0737","article-title":"Meteorological Conditions Associated with Increased Incidence of West Nile Virus Disease in the United States, 2004\u20132012","volume":"92","author":"MB Hahn","year":"2015","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.2.309","article-title":"Effects of temperature on the transmission of west nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae).","volume":"43","author":"WK Reisen","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1006047","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1006047","article-title":"Use of temperature to improve West Nile virus forecasts.","volume":"14","author":"NB DeFelice","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Comput Biol"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref023","article-title":"Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak.","author":"JK Davis","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLOS Curr Outbreaks"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"884","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0342","article-title":"Effects of Temperature on Emergence and Seasonality of West Nile Virus in California","volume":"86","author":"DM Hartley","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"047016","DOI":"10.1289\/EHP10986","article-title":"Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States","volume":"131","author":"ME Gorris","year":"2023","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"key":"pntd.0012051.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2023GH000855","DOI":"10.1029\/2023GH000855","article-title":"A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California.","volume":"7","author":"MJ Ward","year":"2023","journal-title":"GeoHealth."}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,5]],"date-time":"2024-07-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1720137600000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,5]],"date-time":"2024-07-05T17:51:41Z","timestamp":1720201901000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Richard A.","family":"Bowen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,24]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051","relation":{"new_version":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012051","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,24]]}}}