{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,3]],"date-time":"2026-11-03T19:31:58Z","timestamp":1793734318699,"version":"4.6.1"},"reference-count":69,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,12]],"date-time":"2024-09-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1726099200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001807","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2020\/01596-8"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020\/01596-8"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001807","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["304391\/2022-0"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["304391\/2022-0"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["217362 Z 19 Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["217362 Z 19 Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["217362 Z 19 Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["217362 Z 19 Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/S019669\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/S019669\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/S019669\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/S019669\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Seasonal fluctuations in weather are recognized as factors that affect both <jats:italic>Aedes<\/jats:italic> (<jats:italic>Ae<\/jats:italic>.) <jats:italic>aegypti<\/jats:italic> mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, such as dengue fever. The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is widely regarded as one of the most impactful atmospheric phenomena on Earth, characterized by the interplay of shifting ocean temperatures, trade wind intensity, and atmospheric pressure, resulting in extensive alterations in climate conditions. In this study, we investigate the influence of ENSO and local weather conditions on the spatio-temporal variability of <jats:italic>Ae<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>aegypti<\/jats:italic> infestation index.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>We collected seasonal entomological survey data of immature forms of <jats:italic>Ae<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>aegypti<\/jats:italic> mosquitoes (Breteau index), as well as data on temperature, rainfall and the Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) for the period 2008\u20132018 over the 645 municipalities of the subtropical State of S\u00e3o Paulo (Brazil). We grounded our analytical approach on a Bayesian framework and we used a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to study the relationship between ENSO tracked by ONI, seasonal weather fluctuations and the larval index, while adjusting for population density and wealth inequalities.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Our results showed a relevant positive effect for El Ni\u00f1o on the <jats:italic>Ae<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>aegypti<\/jats:italic> larval index. In particular, we found that the number of positive containers would be expected to increase by 1.30-unit (95% Credible Intervals (CI): 1.23 to 1.37) with El Ni\u00f1o events (i.e., \u2265 1\u00b0C, moderate to strong) respect to neutral (and weak) events. We also found that seasonal rainfall exceeding 153.12 mm appears to have a notable impact on vector index, leading potentially to the accumulation of ample water in outdoor discarded receptacles, supporting the aquatic phase of mosquito development. Additionally, seasonal temperature above 23.30\u00b0C was found positively associated to the larval index. Although the State of S\u00e3o Paulo as a whole has characteristics favourable to proliferation of the vector, there were specific areas with a greater tendency for mosquito infestation, since the most vulnerable areas are predominantly situated in the central and northern regions of the state, with hot spots of abundance in the south, especially during El Ni\u00f1o events. Our findings also indicate that social disparities present in the municipalities contributes to <jats:italic>Ae<\/jats:italic>. <jats:italic>aegypti<\/jats:italic> proliferation.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Considering the anticipated rise in both the frequency and intensity of El Ni\u00f1o events in the forthcoming decades as a consequence of climate change, the urgency to enhance our ability to track and diminish arbovirus outbreaks is crucial.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0012397","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,12]],"date-time":"2024-09-12T17:21:55Z","timestamp":1726161715000},"page":"e0012397","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Effects of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of S\u00e3o Paulo (Brazil): A Bayesian spatio-temporal study"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Monica","family":"Pirani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2121-9063","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Camila","family":"Lorenz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thiago Salom\u00e3o","family":"de Azevedo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gerson Laurindo","family":"Barbosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marta","family":"Blangiardo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Francisco","family":"Chiaravalloti-Neto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,12]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0012397.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-24003-z","article-title":"ENSO-driven climate variability promotes periodic major outbreaks of dengue in Venezuela","volume":"8","author":"M Vincenti-Gonzalez","year":"2018","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0012397.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1508","DOI":"10.1038\/s41564-019-0476-8","article-title":"The current and future global distribution and population 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