{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T14:31:31Z","timestamp":1791469891369,"version":"4.3.4"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013155","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,5]],"date-time":"2025-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1749081600000}}],"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,27]],"date-time":"2025-05-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1748304000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["12461101"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["12461101"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Youth science and technology innovation talent of Tianshan Talent Training Program in Xinjiang","award":["2022TSYCCX0099"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022TSYCCX0099"]}]},{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia Fund","award":["SKL-HIDCA-2024-BC9"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SKL-HIDCA-2024-BC9"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec033\">\n<jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Trachoma is primarily transmitted through direct contact, and its complications\u2014such as trichiasis and corneal opacity\u2014significantly impair patients\u2019 quality of life and result in substantial productivity losses. This study explores the differences in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and prevalence of trachoma globally, across regions with varying Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels, and in China, while also projecting future trends specific to China.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec034\">\n<jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This study, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, utilized Joinpoint regression to analyze temporal trends in the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of trachoma in China from 1990 to 2021. The age-period-cohort (APC) model is used to estimate the net effects of age, period, and cohort on disease burden. Through decomposition analysis, the impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes on trachoma disease burden is explored. In addition, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to project trends in the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate and prevalence over the next 15 years, offering valuable insights for optimizing prevention and control strategies and consolidating achievements in disease elimination.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec035\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>From 1990 to 2021, the ASPR and ASDR of trachoma exhibited a consistent downward trend in China, globally, and across regions with varying SDI levels. In 2021, the crude prevalence and crude DALYs rates of trachoma in China increased with age, reaching their peak in the 70\u201374-year age group. Marked disparities were observed among different SDI regions, with high-SDI areas recording the lowest prevalence and DALYs burden, while low-SDI regions experienced the highest. It is expected that from 2022 to 2036, the ASPR and ASDR of male and female populations aged 15 and above in China will both show a downward trend and continue to approach 0.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec036\">\n<jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The continuous decline in the burden of trachoma disease in China from 1990 to 2021 indicates significant achievements in trachoma prevention and treatment. However, attention still needs to be paid to the elderly population aged 60 and above, and health education for the entire population should be strengthened to reduce the disease burden caused by trachoma in China.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013155","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,27]],"date-time":"2025-05-27T17:40:58Z","timestamp":1748367658000},"page":"e0013155","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Analysis and forecast of the disease burden of trachoma in China and the Global Population over 15 years of age, 1990\u20132021"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Chaohui","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hui","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6224-8453","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Kai","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,27]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013155.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1038\/s41572-022-00359-5","article-title":"Trachoma","volume":"8","author":"AW Solomon","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Rev Dis Primers"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013155.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(22)00050-X","article-title":"Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries","volume":"10","author":"KK Renneker","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"issue":"9960","key":"pntd.0013155.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2142","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)62182-0","article-title":"Trachoma","volume":"384","author":"HR Taylor","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0013155.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70137-8","article-title":"Trachoma: transmission, infection, and control","volume":"7","author":"M Gambhir","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013155.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1016\/j.survophthal.2011.08.002","article-title":"Trachomatous trichiasis and its management in endemic countries","volume":"57","author":"SN Rajak","year":"2012","journal-title":"Surv Ophthalmol"},{"issue":"11","key":"pntd.0013155.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002513","article-title":"The impact of climatic risk factors on the prevalence, distribution, and severity of acute and chronic trachoma","volume":"7","author":"A Ramesh","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0013155.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0009644","article-title":"The impact of access to water supply and sanitation on the prevalence of active trachoma in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"15","author":"TA Abebe","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0013155.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1097\/ICU.0000000000000569","article-title":"Advances in dry eye disease treatment","volume":"30","author":"EC O\u2019Neil","year":"2019","journal-title":"Curr Opin Ophthalmol"},{"key":"pntd.0013155.ref009","author":"WHO"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013155.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0312024","article-title":"Beyond the SAFE strategy: Systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among children in Ethiopia","volume":"20","author":"ZA Asmare","year":"2025","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013155.ref011","first-page":"258","article-title":"Preventing trachoma through environmental sanitation: a review of the evidence base","volume":"78","author":"A Pr\u00fcss","year":"2000","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013155.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(21)00500-3","article-title":"Trachoma control using water, sanitation, and hygiene","volume":"10","author":"R Ntozini","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"issue":"10440","key":"pntd.0013155.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2133","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(24)00757-8","article-title":"GBD 2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators. 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