{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T15:27:46Z","timestamp":1788449266651,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]],"date-time":"2025-07-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752019200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82404329"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82404329"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of china","award":["GZC20240890"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GZC20240890"]}]},{"name":"the NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology","award":["National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, NHCKFKT2024-3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, NHCKFKT2024-3"]}]},{"name":"Public Health Talent Cultivation Support Progra"},{"name":"Hubei Province Public Health Leading Talent Progra"},{"name":"Fujian Provincial Department of Science and Technology Program","award":["2023Y0004"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023Y0004"]}]},{"name":"Xiang'an Innovation Laboratory\/National Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Vaccine Development Science and Technology Project,","award":["2024XAKJ0100003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024XAKJ0100003"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec021\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Global warming, urbanization and the resumption of global population movements post-COVID-19 have made the prevention and control of dengue and its vector transmission more challenging. To tackle this issue, this study evaluated and predicted the suitable habitats of <jats:italic>Aedes albopictus<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic> in China. This study aims to identify the key influencing factors, analyze patterns of habitat expansion and contraction, and explore regions in China at risk of dengue fever outbreaks in the future.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec022\">\n<jats:title>Methodology\/principal findings<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This study utilized mosquito distribution data from 2010 to 2023 and employed Maxent to map the distribution of suitable habitats. The key influencing factors and response curves were further analysed, and patterns of habitat expansion and contraction were investigated. The findings reveal that the main variables affecting the distributions of <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic> are annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and land use and land cover changes. The suitable habitat for <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic> shows a significant northward expansion trend, reaching large areas in Shandong and Henan province by 2030. The suitable habitat area for <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic> is increasing annually and can reach approximately 2.38 million square kilometers by 2030. Compared to the outbreak year of dengue fever in China in 2019, the suitable habitat area for <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic> in 2030 will increase by approximately 17.06%, with a growth of 2.57% in the sum of high-risk and medium-risk suitable habitat areas. In contrast, the suitable habitats of <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic> are primarily concentrated in Guangdong, Hainan and Yunnan Provinces.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec023\">\n<jats:title>Conclusion\/significance<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>This study compared the potential changes in the distributions of suitable habitats for <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Ae. aegypti<\/jats:italic> in 2014, 2019, and 2023 and predicted suitable habitats for 2030, as well as contraction and expansion trends in the suitable habitats of <jats:italic>Ae. albopictus<\/jats:italic>. The findings aim to identify regions at risk of future dengue fever outbreaks in China, providing a scientific basis for public health authorities to develop effective dengue prevention and control strategies.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013237","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]],"date-time":"2025-07-09T17:29:23Z","timestamp":1752082163000},"page":"e0013237","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Forecasting high-risk areas for dengue outbreaks in China: A trend analysis of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti distributions from 2014 to 2030"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Yulun","family":"Xie","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bingbing","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qi","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongjie","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanshu","family":"Ke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fang","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xuhua","family":"Guan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jia","family":"Rui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0710-5086","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tianmu","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]]},"reference":[{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0013237.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(24)00609-1","article-title":"Global 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