{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T22:54:42Z","timestamp":1789167282249,"version":"build-2803163510"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013407","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,21]],"date-time":"2025-08-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1755734400000}}],"reference-count":54,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,18]],"date-time":"2025-08-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1755475200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n<jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The sporadic yet explosive nature of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) in the southeast of Australia has led to several hypotheses to explain the viruses temporal and spatial patterns in the region. These theories, relying on the presence of flooding events, include the role of migratory waterbirds as carriers of MVEV from endemic areas in northern Australia or the re-appearance of MVEV from isolated, cryptic habitats. Here we describe the environmental, climatic and entomological factors that led to the development of the \u201cperfect swarm\u201d and re-emergence of MVEV in Victoria during the 2022\u201323 mosquito season, allowing greater scrutiny of the proposed theories for MVEV outbreaks in the southeast of Australia.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n<jats:title>Methodology<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Mosquitoes were collected using Encephalitis Virus Surveillance Carbon Dioxide (EVS CO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>) traps that were set weekly across 17 northern Victorian Local Government Authorities (LGAs). Trapped mosquitoes were counted, speciated and screened for known viruses of public health significance. Mosquito abundance and species composition was compared with climatic variables including temperature and rainfall.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>A positive Southern Oscillation Index and a significant rainfall event in October 2022 led to flooding in central and northern Victoria that persisted for many months. Dominance of the mosquito fauna by <jats:italic><jats:italic>Culex australicus<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> in October to December 2022, followed by <jats:italic><jats:italic>Culex annulirostris<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> over January to March 2023 provided the vectors for amplification and subsequent transmission of MVEV within hosts, leading to spill-over into human populations for the first time in Victoria in almost 50 years. Mosquito surveillance systems detected MVEV in 48 mosquito traps over a 13-week period commencing in the first week of 2023. Virus positive species-specific pools included <jats:italic><jats:italic>Cx. australicus<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic><jats:italic>Cx. annulirostris<\/jats:italic><\/jats:italic>, implicating both species as playing a role in MVEV amplification and\/or transmission. Typing of MVEV was determined to be closely related to MVEV serotype G1A sub-lineage, which had previously only been detected in northwest Australia and from a human case in the Northern Territory.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>\n<jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The detection of MVEV during the 2022\u201323 mosquito season in south-eastern Australia provides greater context for understanding the re-appearance of MVEV in this region, with increased evidence implicating the role of migratory waterbirds, in response to flooding events, as carriers of MVEV into south-eastern Australia.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013407","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,18]],"date-time":"2025-08-18T17:55:11Z","timestamp":1755539711000},"page":"e0013407","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["\u201cThe Perfect Swarm\u201d \u2013 Flooding across Northern Victoria leads to intensified mosquito breeding and subsequent re-emergence and transmission of Murray Valley encephalitis virus during the 2022-23 mosquito season"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0823-6934","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Peter J.","family":"Neville","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel N.","family":"Evans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Helen","family":"O\u2019Brien","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter T.","family":"Mee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Natasha D.","family":"Brohier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole","family":"Hughes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,18]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0013407.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"322","DOI":"10.5694\/mja11.11026","article-title":"Murray Valley encephalitis: a review of clinical features, diagnosis and treatment","volume":"196","author":"J Knox","year":"2012","journal-title":"Med J Aust"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013407.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.5694\/j.1326-5377.1952.tb74988.x","article-title":"Murray-Valley encephalitis; surveys of human and animal sera","volume":"1","author":"SG Anderson","year":"1952","journal-title":"Med J Aust"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0013407.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2002.67.319","article-title":"Epizootic activity of Murray Valley encephalitis virus in an aboriginal community in the southeast Kimberley region of Western Australia: results of cross-sectional and longitudinal serologic studies","volume":"67","author":"AK Broom","year":"2002","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013407.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002656","article-title":"The changing epidemiology of Murray Valley encephalitis in Australia: the 2011 outbreak and a review of the literature","volume":"8","author":"LA Selvey","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0013407.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1256149","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2023.1256149","article-title":"An integrated public health response to an outbreak of Murray Valley encephalitis virus infection during the 2022\u20132023 mosquito season in Victoria","volume":"11","author":"M Braddick","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0013407.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"248","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trx045","article-title":"The ecology and epidemiology of Ross River and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses in Western Australia: examples of one health in action","volume":"111","author":"JS Mackenzie","year":"2017","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"pntd.0013407.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"447","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01321074","article-title":"Arboviruses causing human disease in the Australasian zoogeographic region","volume":"136","author":"JS Mackenzie","year":"1994","journal-title":"Arch Virol"},{"issue":"22","key":"pntd.0013407.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"799","DOI":"10.5694\/j.1326-5377.1951.tb56527.x","article-title":"Isolation of a virus from encephalitis in South Australia: a preliminary report","volume":"1","author":"JAR Miles","year":"1951","journal-title":"Med J Aust"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013407.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.5694\/j.1326-5377.1952.tb74985.x","article-title":"Murray Valley encephalitis isolation and characterization of the aetiological agent","volume":"1","author":"EL French","year":"1952","journal-title":"Med J Aust"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0013407.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"446","DOI":"10.5694\/j.1326-5377.1976.tb130324.x","article-title":"Murray Valley encephalitis, 1974: clinical features","volume":"2","author":"NM Bennett","year":"1976","journal-title":"Med J Australia"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013407.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1177\/1040638712467985","article-title":"Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of Murray Valley encephalitis virus and West Nile virus (Kunjin subtype) from an arbovirus disease outbreak in horses in Victoria, Australia, in 2011","volume":"25","author":"RA Mann","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Vet Diagn Invest"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0013407.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1111\/1753-6405.12113","article-title":"Low seroprevalence of Murray Valley encephalitis and Kunjin viruses in an opportunistic serosurvey, Victoria 2011","volume":"37","author":"SA Williams","year":"2013","journal-title":"Australian and New Zealand J Public Health"},{"key":"pntd.0013407.ref013","volume-title":"Murray Valley encephalitis 1974, also, the epidemic variance since 1914 and predisposing rainfall patterns","author":"JA Forbes","year":"1978"},{"key":"pntd.0013407.ref014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"587","DOI":"10.1038\/icb.1986.62","article-title":"A method for predicting Murray Valley encephalitis in southeast Australia using the Southern Oscillation","author":"N Nicholls","year":"1986","journal-title":"Aust J Exp Biol Med Sci"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013407.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.33321\/cdi.2001.25.7","article-title":"Murray Valley encephalitis virus surveillance and control initiatives in Australia. 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Victoria in October 2022: wettest month on record, very warm nights. Commonwealth of Australia. 2022. Accessed 1 September 2023. https:\/\/www.bom.gov.au"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013407.ref033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.1071\/ES19003","article-title":"A comparison of weather systems in 1870 and 1956 leading to extreme floods in the Murray\u2013Darling Basin","volume":"69","author":"J Callaghan","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Southern Hemisphere Earth Syst Sci"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0013407.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.30564\/jgr.v4i3.3204","article-title":"A climatology of heavy rain and major flood events in Victoria 1876-2019 and the effect of the 1976 climate shift","volume":"4","author":"J Callaghan","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Geogr Res"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0013407.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"529","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/22.5.529","article-title":"Host-feeding patterns of Culex annulirostris and other mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) at Charleville, southwestern Queensland, Australia","volume":"22","author":"BH Kay","year":"1985","journal-title":"J Med Entomol"},{"key":"pntd.0013407.ref036","first-page":"430","article-title":"Managing mosquitoes in constructed freshwater wetlands","volume-title":"Workbook for managing urban wetlands in Australia","author":"C. 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