{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,6]],"date-time":"2026-01-06T20:37:48Z","timestamp":1767731868799,"version":"build-2238731810"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013448","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,22]],"date-time":"2025-10-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761091200000}}],"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,16]],"date-time":"2025-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1760572800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"NSERC-Sanofi Alliance program in Vaccine Mathematics, Modelling, and Manufacturing","award":["517504"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["517504"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["12271346"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["12271346"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Background:<\/jats:bold>\n                    Yellow Fever (YF), a disease typically transmitted to humans by infected mosquitoes, is endemic to regions such as South America. Climate change plays a crucial role in exacerbating the spread of YF.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Model:<\/jats:bold>\n                    We formulate a mathematical model of YF transmission with a case study of the region in the southeastern Brazil with a well documented 2017\/2018 outbreak. We validate the model using historical data, then run simulations to generate projections of future outbreaks under different climate scenarios in 2050. We also evaluate the outcomes of different mitigation measures such as emergency vaccination programs.\n                  <\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    <jats:bold>Findings:<\/jats:bold>\n                    Our results suggest that under all projected climate scenarios, increasing temperatures will yield a marked increase in the total number of cases. Under RCP 8.5, the basic human infection reproduction number will increase by 11.4%, and the cumulative infections will increase by 8.1%. The model predicts a similar increase under a moderate radiative forcing scenario. The introduction of additional emergency vaccination, at a rate of 8.0% (equivalent to 60% vaccination coverage over the course of 15 weeks) of the susceptible population per week, can reduce this increase of cumulative cases to approximately 4.9%. This effect of emergency vaccines will be equivalent to alternative public health interventions to reduce the mosquito-to-human disease transmission effective contact by approximately 23.0%. Increasing temperatures and rainfall due to climate change are projected to increase YF cases. Vaccination can be an important part of integrative mitigating measures.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013448","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,16]],"date-time":"2025-10-16T17:47:35Z","timestamp":1760636855000},"page":"e0013448","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Risk assessment and mitigation evaluation of future yellow fever outbreaks under different climate scenarios: Insight from a case study of Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8461-1487","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tedi","family":"Ramaj","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaotian","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marco","family":"Tosato","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fernando","family":"Morelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yael","family":"Thollot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Edith","family":"Langevin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Edward","family":"Thommes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Woldegebriel Assefa","family":"Woldegerima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jianhong","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,16]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013448.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11816","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-10461-4","article-title":"Two genomes of highly polyphagous lepidopteran pests (Spodoptera frugiperda, Noctuidae) with different host-plant ranges","volume":"7","author":"A Gouin","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci Rep."},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"160","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcv.2014.08.030","article-title":"Yellow fever","volume":"64","author":"TP Monath","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Clin Virol."},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref003","first-page":"101","volume-title":"Arthropod borne diseases","author":"PFC Vasconcelos","year":"2016"},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6711e1","article-title":"Fatal yellow fever in travelers to Brazil 2018","volume":"67","author":"DH Hamer","year":"2018","journal-title":"MMWR Morbidity and mortality weekly report."},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.64670","article-title":"The global burden of yellow fever","volume":"10","author":"KA Gaythorpe","year":"2021","journal-title":"Elife."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013448.ref006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1111\/nyas.13950","article-title":"Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases","volume":"1436","author":"C Caminade","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann N Y Acad Sci."},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2019.07.033","article-title":"A yellow flag on the horizon: the looming threat of yellow fever to North America","volume":"87","author":"R J\u00e1come","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int J Infect Dis."},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0013448.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1271","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)70834-5","article-title":"Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region: past, present, and scenarios for the future","volume":"14","author":"F Schaffner","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013448.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(01)00016-0","article-title":"Yellow fever: an update","volume":"1","author":"TP Monath","year":"2001","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0013448.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/tru092","article-title":"The whole iceberg: estimating the incidence of yellow fever virus infection from the number of severe cases","volume":"108","author":"MA Johansson","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg."},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s40794-020-0101-0","article-title":"Yellow fever control: current epidemiology and vaccination strategies","volume":"6","author":"LH Chen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines."},{"key":"pntd.0013448.ref012","unstructured":"WHO A. 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