{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T14:31:32Z","timestamp":1791469892359,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]],"date-time":"2025-10-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1760313600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The World Health Organization considers cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) to be one of the most important neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The application of geostatistical models, in conjunction with sociodemographic and environmental factors, enables the understanding of disease epidemiology and facilitates the implementation of targeted measures and effective case management. This research aimed to evaluate the association between climatic, sociodemographic, and socioeconomic factors with the monthly CL incidence rate at the municipality level in Colombia from 2007 to 2021. An ecological study was conducted, including laboratory-confirmed notifications of CL reported in municipalities located below 1,700 meters above sea level through the National Public Health Surveillance System. Climate data were sourced from NASA, and sociodemographic and socioeconomic variables were obtained from the National Planning Department. Hierarchical spatio-temporal regression models within a Bayesian framework were used to analyze the monthly CL. A total of 121,828 cases of CL were analyzed, with an annual median of 7,605 cases. Standardized incidence rates (SIR) ranged from 0 to 16,072 per 100,000 population (median: 105.7; IQR: 46.7-419). Eight of the 11 studied factors were associated with the monthly cases of CL: rainfall, urban dimension, and Venezuelan migration were associated with a decrease in CL cases, while qualitative housing deficit, internal migration, the multidimensional poverty index, the index of unmet basic needs, and forest coverage were associated with an increase in CL cases. CL incidence in Colombia fluctuated during the study period, with high spatial heterogeneity linked to climatic, sociodemographic. and socioeconomic factors. These findings highlight the necessity for customized territorial approaches to the prevention and control of CL, emphasizing the importance of considering municipal characteristics and aligning strategies with the Colombian Strategic Plan for CL.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013594","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]],"date-time":"2025-10-13T17:25:52Z","timestamp":1760376352000},"page":"e0013594","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Climatic, socioeconomic, and migratory factors on the epidemiological dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia, 2007\u20132021"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9353-7904","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Johanna","family":"Tapias Rivera","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruth","family":"Mart\u00ednez-Vega","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wendy Lorena","family":"Quintero-Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dayana Sof\u00eda","family":"Torres-Mart\u00ednez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angela Liliana","family":"Monroy-D\u00edaz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lusayda","family":"S\u00e1nchez-Corrales","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juan David","family":"Guti\u00e9rrez-Torres","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013594.ref001","first-page":"1","article-title":"Vaccination in Leishmaniasis: A Review Article","volume":"26","author":"L Abdellahi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Iran Biomed J"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-016-1352-5","article-title":"Sand flies (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae), vectors of Leishmania protozoa, at an Atlantic Forest Conservation Unit in the municipality of N\u00edsia Floresta, Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil","volume":"9","author":"MPG Pinheiro","year":"2016","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0013594.ref003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"823","DOI":"10.1007\/s40257-022-00726-8","article-title":"Cutaneous leishmaniasis: a 2022 updated narrative review into diagnosis and management developments","volume":"23","author":"HJC de Vries","year":"2022","journal-title":"Am J Clin Dermatol"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013594.ref004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens12020297","article-title":"Unusual Observations in Leishmaniasis-An Overview","volume":"12","author":"P Yadav","year":"2023","journal-title":"Pathogens"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref005","unstructured":"OMS. Leishmaniasis [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2025 Mar 28]. Available from: https:\/\/www.who.int\/es\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/leishmaniasis"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0013594.ref006","article-title":"Global burden and trends of neglected tropical diseases from 1990 to 2019","volume":"29","author":"Y Lin","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013594.ref007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1111\/ijd.15543","article-title":"Climate change, human migration, and skin disease: is there a link?","volume":"61","author":"JF Dayrit","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int J Dermatol"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0291-2019","article-title":"Major environmental and socioeconomic determinants of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil - a systematic literature review","volume":"53","author":"LP Buzanovsky","year":"2020","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013594.ref009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1001\/jamadermatol.2015.4765","article-title":"Human Migration and Leishmaniasis-On the Move","volume":"152","author":"LV Stamm","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA Dermatol"},{"issue":"8","key":"pntd.0013594.ref010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"600","DOI":"10.3855\/jidc.10306","article-title":"An An outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Erbil governorate of Iraqi Kurdistan Region in 2015","volume":"12","author":"QB Abdulla","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Infect Dev Ctries"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1186\/s41182-017-0054-9","article-title":"Environmental factors associated with the distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in endemic areas of Bangladesh: modeling the ecological niche","volume":"45","author":"AYM Abdullah","year":"2017","journal-title":"Trop Med Health"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-311X2003000400016","article-title":"Estudo de flebotom\u00edneos (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae) na zona urbana da cidade de Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil, 1999-2000","volume":"19","author":"AG de Oliveira","year":"2003","journal-title":"Cad Sa\u00fade P\u00fabl"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ento-120811-153557","article-title":"Biology of phlebotomine sand flies as vectors of disease agents","volume":"58","author":"PD Ready","year":"2013","journal-title":"Annu Rev Entomol"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref014","unstructured":"WHO. Control of the leishmaniases WHO TRS n\u00b0 949 [Internet]. 2010 [cited 2025 July 18]. Available from: https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/WHO-TRS-949"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0013594.ref015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1016\/S0035-9203(01)90223-8","article-title":"The increase in risk factors for leishmaniasis worldwide","volume":"95","author":"P Desjeux","year":"2001","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0013594.ref016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"552","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2006.09.004","article-title":"Leishmaniasis and poverty","volume":"22","author":"J Alvar","year":"2006","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013594.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"64","DOI":"10.1186\/s13690-023-01075-6","article-title":"Socio-demographic and economic inequity in the use of insecticide-treated bed nets during pregnancy: a survey-based case study of four sub-Saharan African countries with a high burden of malaria","volume":"81","author":"W Haileselassie","year":"2023","journal-title":"Arch Public Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0013594.ref018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0035671","article-title":"Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence","volume":"7","author":"J Alvar","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref019","first-page":"135","article-title":"Vulnerabilities to and the Socioeconomic and Psychosocial Impacts of the Leishmaniases: A Review","volume":"12","author":"G Grifferty","year":"2021","journal-title":"Res Rep Trop Med"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socscimed.2016.04.038","article-title":"Leishmaniasis, conflict, and political terror: A spatio-temporal analysis","volume":"167","author":"I Berry","year":"2016","journal-title":"Soc Sci Med"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013594.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006419","article-title":"Geospatial-temporal distribution of tegumentary leishmaniasis in Colombia (2007\u20132016)","volume":"12","author":"G Herrera","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28266","DOI":"10.1038\/srep28266","article-title":"Taxonomy, diversity, temporal and geographical distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Colombia: A retrospective study","volume":"6","author":"JD Ram\u00edrez","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0013594.ref023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1309","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2012.03065.x","article-title":"Environmental factors associated with American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a new Andean focus in Colombia","volume":"17","author":"CB Ocampo","year":"2012","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0013594.ref024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0139391","article-title":"Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia","volume":"10","author":"C Ferro","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref025","article-title":"Spatial epidemiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia: socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with a growing epidemic","author":"AM Hern\u00e1ndez","year":"2019","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0013594.ref026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008324","article-title":"Effect of El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation cycle on the potential distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis vector species in Colombia","volume":"14","author":"M Altamiranda-Saavedra","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013594.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"476","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0099-2014","article-title":"Epidemiological and environmental aspects of visceral leishmaniasis in children under 15 years of age between 2007 and 2012 in the City of Aragua\u00edna, State of Tocantins, Brazil","volume":"47","author":"IBB Oliveira","year":"2014","journal-title":"Rev Soc Bras Med Trop"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref028","unstructured":"INS, Instituto Nacional de Salud. Protocolo de vigilancia de Leishmaniasis [Internet]. [cited 2025 Sept 4]. Available from: https:\/\/www.ins.gov.co\/buscador-eventos\/Paginas\/Fichas-y-Protocolos.aspx#InplviewHash53b394d9-1b59-4486-827a-d52877de1891=Paged%3DTRUE-p_GroupCol1%3DInfecciones%2520Asociadas%2520a%2520la%2520Atenci%25c3%25b3n%2520en%2520Salud%2520%252d%2520Infecciones%2520Asociadas%2520a%2520Dispositivos-PageFirstRow%3D31-WebPartID%3D%7B53B394D9--1B59--4486--827A--D52877DE1891%7D"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref029","unstructured":"National Aeronautics and Space Administration-NASA. GES DISC Dataset: GLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 monthly 0.25 x 0.25\u2009degree V2.1 (GLDAS_NOAH025_M 2.1) [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2022 July 6]. Available from: https:\/\/disc.gsfc.nasa.gov\/datasets\/GLDAS_NOAH025_M_2.1\/summary"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013594.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2009.08.016","article-title":"MODIS Collection 5 global land cover: Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets","volume":"114","author":"MA Friedl","year":"2010","journal-title":"Rem Sens Environ"},{"issue":"6160","key":"pntd.0013594.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"850","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1244693","article-title":"High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change","volume":"342","author":"MC Hansen","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref032","unstructured":"Hijmans RJ, van Etten J. raster: Geographic analysis and modeling with raster data [Internet]. 2012. Available from: http:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=raster"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref033","unstructured":"Departamento Nacional de Planeaci\u00f3n-DNP. TerriData:: DNP [Internet]. 2018 [cited 2022 July 6]. Available from: https:\/\/terridata.dnp.gov.co\/"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref034","unstructured":"Departamento Nacional de Planeaci\u00f3n D. Tipolog\u00edas Departamentales y Municipales: Una propuesta para comprender las entidades territoriales colombianas [Internet]. Direcci\u00f3n de Desarrollo Territorial Sostenible - DDTS Grupo de Estudios Territoriales; 2015 [cited 2019 Oct 5]. Available from: https:\/\/colaboracion.dnp.gov.co\/CDT\/Desarrollo%20Territorial\/Tip-FormatoPublicacion%20(tipolog\u00edas)%2023.pdf?Web"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013594.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00116466","article-title":"Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics","volume":"43","author":"J Besag","year":"1991","journal-title":"Ann Inst Stat Math"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref036","unstructured":"Instituto Geogr\u00e1fico Agust\u00edn Codazzi- IGAC. Colombia en mapas [Internet]. [cited 2025 Sept 19]. Available from: https:\/\/www.colombiaenmapas.gov.co"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0013594.ref037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011752","article-title":"Ensuring access to essential health products: Lessons from Colombia\u2019s leishmaniasis control and elimination initiative","volume":"17","author":"C Vlassoff","year":"2023","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref038","unstructured":"PAHO\/WHO. Leishmaniasis: Epidemiological Report for the Americas. No.11 (December 2022) [Internet]. 2022 [cited 2025 Mar 28]. Available from: https:\/\/iris.paho.org\/handle\/10665.2\/56831"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0013594.ref039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1547","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.18-0037","article-title":"Housing characteristics and leishmaniasis: a systematic review","volume":"99","author":"R Calderon-Anyosa","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0013594.ref040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.9778\/cmajo.20210238","article-title":"Cutaneous leishmaniasis in travellers and migrants: a 10-year case series in a Canadian reference centre for tropical diseases","volume":"10","author":"A Lemieux","year":"2022","journal-title":"CMAJ Open"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013594.ref041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1186\/s40794-022-00171-9","article-title":"Imported cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Cuba, 2017: role of human movement","volume":"8","author":"L Monzote","year":"2022","journal-title":"Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines"},{"issue":"4","key":"pntd.0013594.ref042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"393","DOI":"10.1111\/mve.12741","article-title":"Ecological determinants of leishmaniasis vector, Lutzomyia spp.: A scoping review","volume":"38","author":"S DeWinter","year":"2024","journal-title":"Med Vet Entomol"},{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0013594.ref043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"462","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens13060462","article-title":"The Impact of Climatological Factors on the Incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombian Municipalities from 2017 to 2019","volume":"13","author":"D Mu\u00f1oz Morales","year":"2024","journal-title":"Pathogens"},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0013594.ref044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003210","article-title":"Cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fluctuations are associated with el ni\u00f1o in panam\u00e1","volume":"8","author":"LF Chaves","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105523","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2020.105523","article-title":"Development of Lutzomyia evansi immature stages in peridomiciliary environment in a leishmaniasis urban focus in the Colombian Caribbean","volume":"208","author":"LG Estrada","year":"2020","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0013594.ref046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1080\/17565529.2024.2314115","article-title":"Effects of weather shocks on multidimensional rural poverty: evidence for Colombia","volume":"17","author":"MA P\u00e9rez-Uribe","year":"2025","journal-title":"Clim Dev"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.1590\/1519-6984.224937","article-title":"Clinical, epidemiological and climatic factors related to the occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic area in northeastern Brazil","volume":"81","author":"RS Oliveira","year":"2020","journal-title":"Braz J Biol"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"148960","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.148960","article-title":"Environmental and socioeconomic risk factors for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis in S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil","volume":"797","author":"NNH Valero","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0013594.ref049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.15-0408","article-title":"Social and economic burden of human leishmaniasis","volume":"94","author":"I Okwor","year":"2016","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref050","article-title":"Interaction between environmental and socioeconomic determinants for cutaneous leishmaniasis risk in Latin America","volume":"45","author":"ANS Maia-Elkhoury","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rev Panam Salud P\u00fablica"},{"key":"pntd.0013594.ref051","volume-title":"The Neglected Tropical Diseases And The Neglected Infections Of Poverty: Overview Of Their Common Features, Global Disease Burden And Distribution, New Control Tools, And Prospects For Disease Elimination. In: The Causes and Impacts of Neglected Tropical and Zoonotic Diseases: Opportunities for Integrated Intervention Strategies [Internet]","author":"PJ Hotez","year":"2011"}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013594","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]],"date-time":"2025-10-13T17:26:00Z","timestamp":1760376360000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013594"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Michael","family":"Marks","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013594","relation":{},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,13]]}}}