{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T00:00:55Z","timestamp":1792540855609,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,19]],"date-time":"2025-11-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763510400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012165","name":"Key Technologies Research and Development Program","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2023YFC3605000"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023YFC3605000"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012165","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["42075173, 42175181, and 42375180"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42075173, 42175181, and 42375180"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["12171116"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["12171116"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Guangxi Natural Science Foundation","award":["2024GXNSFAA010475"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024GXNSFAA010475"]}]},{"name":"Science and Technology Project of Guangxi","award":["GuikeAD25069086"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GuikeAD25069086"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100021171","name":"Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["2024A1515012088"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024A1515012088"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100021171","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                      is the primary vector of dengue fever, a disease whose transmission is strongly dependent on warm, humid climates. While the geographical and seasonal patterns of dengue are well-established, systematic projections of how climate change will affect the distribution of\n                      <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                      and dengue transmission risk in China remain limited.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      We integrated a phenological model with a dynamical mathematical model to project the future distribution and population dynamics of\n                      <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                      under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We assessed life-cycle completion (LCC) intensity at the municipal level across China and simulated detailed mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission in six representative cities under sustainable (SSP1-2.6), regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0), and fossil-fueled development (SSP5-8.5) scenarios.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Climate warming is projected to accelerate the developmental rate of\n                      <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                      , with the most severe risks under the SSP5-8.5. By the 2090s, southern coastal cities could average 26 LCCs per year, and approximately 90% of Chinese cities may sustain at least one annual generation. The mosquito\u2019s range is expected to expand northward, with peak abundance shifting to September-October. Lengthened active seasons, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, are anticipated. Consequently, dengue incidence is projected to rise, peaking later in the year (October-November). In a high-emission future, Guangzhou could experience peaks of up to 11,000 daily cases.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec004\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Climate warming could increase the generational turnover, expand the geographic range, and prolong the seasonal activity of\n                      <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic>\n                      in China, thereby significantly elevating the risk of dengue transmission. These projections enhance our ability to predict outbreaks and are critical for informing proactive, targeted public health control strategies.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013702","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,19]],"date-time":"2025-11-19T18:32:46Z","timestamp":1763577166000},"page":"e0013702","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Spatiotemporal expansion of Aedes aegypti and the dengue fever epidemic under climate change in China"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Ziyue","family":"Zhou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guanhao","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianxiong","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guodong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hepeng","family":"Pan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yayi","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Siwen","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiqing","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenjun","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1416-1476","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Guanghu","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1451-5251","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tao","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,19]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6","key":"pntd.0013702.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1035","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/29.6.1035","article-title":"Female 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