{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T17:53:58Z","timestamp":1791827638532,"version":"4.3.4"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013821","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791763200000}}],"reference-count":105,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791158400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010678","name":"H2020 Food","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["101000365"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["101000365"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010678","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Fascioliasis, a zoonotic parasitic disease caused by the liver flukes\n                    <jats:italic>Fasciola hepatica<\/jats:italic>\n                    and\n                    <jats:italic>Fasciola gigantica<\/jats:italic>\n                    , poses a significant threat to livestock and human health globally. Climate change is altering the transmission dynamics of this disease; however, the direction and magnitude of this change remain uncertain due to a lack of mechanistically grounded predictions at continental scale. In this study, we developed a novel risk index to assess how climate change may affect the potential for fascioliasis transmission across Africa and Europe. The index integrates the following three components that together capture the environmental requirements for\n                    <jats:italic>Fasciola<\/jats:italic>\n                    transmission: the temperature dependence of the parasite transmission; climatic suitability for the snail intermediate host; and availability of freshwater habitats. To estimate these components, we used data from published experimental studies, thousands of snail occurrence records, and both mechanistic and correlative modelling approaches. We predict that climate change will generally reduce fascioliasis risk across most of the ranges of the two investigated liver fluke species, albeit with marked geographical differences. The transmission risk of\n                    <jats:italic>F. gigantica<\/jats:italic>\n                    is predicted to decrease in the Sahel and West Africa, due to above-optimal temperatures for parasite transmission and climatic suitability for the intermediate hosts. However, risk for\n                    <jats:italic>F. hepatica<\/jats:italic>\n                    transmission is projected to increase in parts of Northern Europe, Scandinavia, and Iceland, where livestock densities are high. We also find that the potential for hybridization between\n                    <jats:italic>F. hepatica<\/jats:italic>\n                    and\n                    <jats:italic>F. gigantica<\/jats:italic>\n                    may decline due to reduced geographic overlap in areas that are highly suitable for transmission. By providing a scalable, ecologically informed framework for predicting fascioliasis risk under climate change, this study lays the groundwork for improved local risk assessment. Our risk index focuses on the environmentally sensitive components of the\n                    <jats:italic>Fasciola<\/jats:italic>\n                    life cycle and thus does not account for other important factors such as local farming practices and vertebrate host densities. Despite this caveat, our results provide a more nuanced perspective on the potential impact of climate change on fascioliasis transmission, showing that this will be highly uneven across Africa and Europe.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013821","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T17:58:48Z","timestamp":1791223128000},"page":"e0013821","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Novel environmental risk index reveals uneven impact of climate change on fascioliasis risk across Africa and Europe"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9339-9908","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tiem","family":"van der Deure","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Copenhagen","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"],"department":["Department of Veterinary and Animal 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Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mita Eva","family":"Sengupta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Copenhagen","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"],"department":["Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Safari","family":"Kinunghi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), Mwanza Centre","place":["Mwanza, Tanzania"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rubens","family":"Mita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute","place":["Allschwil, Switzerland"]},{"name":"University of Basel","place":["Basel, Switzerland"],"department":["Faculty of Science"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julia","family":"Walker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Tropical and Public Health 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