{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T00:36:12Z","timestamp":1792802172093,"version":"4.5.0"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014135","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,20]],"date-time":"2026-03-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773964800000}}],"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,17]],"date-time":"2026-03-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773705600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001350","name":"Ministry of Health, Singapore","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["A-8000642-01-00 PREPARE S2-2024-002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["A-8000642-01-00 PREPARE S2-2024-002"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001350","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"WHO","award":["Temasek Foundation Collaboration Framework Grant"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Temasek Foundation Collaboration Framework Grant"]}]},{"name":"Wellcome Trust Dengue and Zika Immunology and Genomics Multi-Country Network","award":["316633\/Z\/24\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["316633\/Z\/24\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/029chgv08","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001381","name":"National Research Foundation Singapore","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NRF-NRFF15-2023-0010"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NRF-NRFF15-2023-0010"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001381","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Wellcome Africa Asia Program Vietnam","award":["106680\/Z\/I4\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["106680\/Z\/I4\/Z"]}]},{"name":"Strategic Partnership for Prevention, Surveillance and Response to Infectious Diseases across the Indo-Pacific Region","id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04e9s0y96","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"NUS Climate, Environment and Health programme"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Indonesia has the highest dengue burden in Southeast Asia, with 488 of 514 districts reporting cases annually across its 17,000-island archipelago. Despite this substantial burden, spatiotemporal transmission patterns remain poorly characterised. We analysed province-level dengue surveillance data (2010\u20132024) from Indonesia\u2019s Ministry of Health alongside local and regional climate variables to characterise heterogeneity in dengue periodicity and identify provinces where climate-based early warning may be feasible. Using wavelet phase analysis, dynamic time warping clustering, and distributed lag non-linear models, we examined relationships between climate and dengue incidence across 34 provinces. A systematic west-to-east gradient in dengue wave timing was identified, with Northern Sumatran provinces peaking earlier than other provinces, aligning with Australian-Asian monsoon progression. This gradient was robust in western Indonesia (Spearman\n                    <jats:italic>\u03c1<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.7 between longitude and phase lag) but weakened in eastern provinces. Multi-annual outbreak peaks (2015\u20132016, 2023\u20132024) coincided with strong El Ni\u00f1o events, with mean incidence during strong El Ni\u00f1o years was 96% higher than other years. The Indian Ocean Dipole showed no significant association. Phase coherence analysis identified 18 provinces where precipitation-dengue timing was sufficiently consistent (coherence \u22650.85) for potential early warning applications and DLNM confirmed significant dose-response associations in 11 of these. Indonesia\u2019s dengue-climate relationships exhibit structured heterogeneity that precludes uniform national prediction approaches but may enable province-specific early warning in high-coherence areas. A two-tier system combining ENSO monitoring for strategic preparedness with local climate monitoring for tactical intervention timing could improve outbreak response across Indonesia\u2019s diverse epidemiological landscapes.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014135","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,17]],"date-time":"2026-03-17T17:40:51Z","timestamp":1773769251000},"page":"e0014135","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Dengue transmission heterogeneity across Indonesia\u2019s archipelago: Climate-driven spatiotemporal patterns and policy implications"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7481-2624","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Bimandra A.","family":"Djaafara","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Iqbal 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