{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T19:14:21Z","timestamp":1789758861984,"version":"4.0.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014162","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,18]],"date-time":"2026-09-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1789689600000}}],"reference-count":84,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788393600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Targeted Call for Research","award":["2039802"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2039802"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/011kf5r70","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant","award":["2034827"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2034827"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/011kf5r70","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grants","award":["1193826"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1193826"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/011kf5r70","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"University of Queensland Health Research Accelerator Initiative","id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00rqy9422","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000996","name":"Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Government","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["79047"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["79047"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000996","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Australia raises questions about transmission potential across neighbouring Pacific Island countries and territories (PICs), where surveillance infrastructure and diagnostic capacity are limited.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methodology<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We conducted a qualitative risk assessment of 22 PICs structured around three components: (1) \u2018release assessment\u2019, evaluating JEV introduction pathways based on geographic proximity, migratory waterbird flyway connectivity, and windborne mosquito dispersal potential; (2) \u2018exposure assessment\u2019, evaluating ecological transmission suitability based on vector and host competence and occurrence; and (3) \u2018risk characterisation\u2019, integrating release and exposure components to stratify countries into transmission risk profiles (endemic, epidemic, and low potential). Introduction potential varied across the region, with northern and western PICs having greatest connectivity to endemic regions. Ecological suitability for transmission was sufficient to support JEV transmission in 13 of the 22 PICs if introduced. Eight PICs were characterised as having endemic transmission potential (Papua New Guinea, which already has confirmed circulation, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Palau, Guam, and Northern Mariana Islands), based on diverse competent vector communities, high ardeid waterbird diversity, and moderate-to-high introduction potential. Five PICs (Federated States of Micronesia, Tonga, Samoa, Tuvalu, and Nauru) were characterised as having epidemic transmission potential, supported by pig densities capable of amplifying viral titres and sufficient vector diversity, but lacking ardeid populations necessary to sustain endemic cycles. The remaining nine PICs had low transmission potential due to limited vector and host communities. These risk stratifications are relative; the absolute probability of JEV establishment in any PIC remains uncertain.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Distinct transmission profiles require differentiated public health responses, from sustained surveillance in endemic-potential settings to early detection and rapid outbreak response in epidemic-potential settings. Regional coordination through shared diagnostic networks and vaccine access pathways is critical to support preparedness before JEV becomes established across the Pacific.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014162","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T17:50:28Z","timestamp":1788457828000},"page":"e0014162","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Qualitative risk assessment of Japanese encephalitis virus introduction and transmission in Pacific Island countries and territories"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0712-2222","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Eloise B.","family":"Skinner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amanda K.","family":"Murphy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University","place":["Smithfield, Queensland, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fan","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kevin Thabo","family":"Moore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"]},{"name":"QIMR-Berghofer Medical Research Institute","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"],"department":["Mosquito Control Lab"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liuyi","family":"Chen-Cao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David T.","family":"Williams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation","place":["Geelong, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephan","family":"Karl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University","place":["Smithfield, Queensland, Australia"]},{"name":"Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research","place":["Madang, Papua New Guinea"],"department":["Vector-borne Diseases Unit"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joelyn","family":"Goi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation","place":["Geelong, Victoria, Australia"],"department":["Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Colleen L.","family":"Lau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benn","family":"Sartorius","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Frazer Institute, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland","place":["Brisbane, Queensland, Australia"]},{"name":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, School of Medicine, University of Washington","place":["Seattle, Washington, United States of America"],"department":["Department of Health Metrics Sciences"]},{"name":"University of Oxford","place":["Oxfordshire, United Kingdom"],"department":["Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Population Health"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"pntd.0014162.ref001","article-title":"Estimates of the global burden of Japanese encephalitis and the impact of vaccination from 2000-2015","volume":"9","author":"TM Quan","year":"2020","journal-title":"eLife"},{"issue":"10","key":"pntd.0014162.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"766","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.10.085233","article-title":"Estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis: a systematic review","volume":"89","author":"G Campbell","year":"2011","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"key":"pntd.0014162.ref003","first-page":"93","article-title":"Japanese Encephalitis 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