{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,3]],"date-time":"2026-06-03T02:53:16Z","timestamp":1780455196607,"version":"3.54.1"},"update-to":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014298","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780012800000}}],"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]],"date-time":"2026-05-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779753600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003545","name":"Minist\u00e9rio da Ci\u00eancia, Tecnologia e Inova\u00e7\u00e3o","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["404328\/2020-2"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["404328\/2020-2"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003545","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["50022\/2014-7"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["50022\/2014-7"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004809","name":"Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["01.13.0353.00"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["01.13.0353.00"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["382054\/2021-7"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["382054\/2021-7"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001807","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2022\/10997-1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022\/10997-1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001807","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["312901\/2021-6"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["312901\/2021-6"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["422782\/2021-1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["422782\/2021-1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["303382\/2022-8"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["303382\/2022-8"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Climate change impacts ecosystems and health sectors, increasing the incidence of climate-sensitive diseases like malaria, mainly in tropical countries. This study assesses malaria risk, particularly related to\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium vivax<\/jats:italic>\n                    , under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), using the AdaptaBrasil MCTI approach, which supports decision-makers in enhancing climate adaptation strategies. A multilevel analysis was employed to identify key climate variables influencing malaria incidence (temperature, relative humidity, and the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII)). A logistic Binary Model was applied to estimate the climate threat associated with malaria incidence in all Brazilian municipalities for baseline and future scenarios. The Vulnerability Index, comprising Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity dimensions, highlighted social susceptibility and healthcare access as crucial factors driving higher vulnerability. Road networks and land use factors shaped the Exposure Index, and the Climate Threat Index was based on maximum temperature, SDII, and relative humidity. Under both scenarios, the findings show a growing malaria risk across Brazil, with the most significant impact in the Amazon, expanding to the other regions, mainly the Southeast and Northeast, by 2050. Maximum temperature increases (\u03b2\u2009=\u20090.35) emerged as the most influential factor, followed by SDII (\u03b2\u2009=\u20090.19) and relative humidity (\u03b2\u2009=\u20090.12). These results emphasize the need for targeted public health and environmental interventions to address rising malaria risks, particularly in the Amazon. This study offers critical insights into the relationship between climate change and malaria, informing future policies for climate adaptation and public health preparedness in Brazil.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014298","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]],"date-time":"2026-05-26T17:33:00Z","timestamp":1779816780000},"page":"e0014298","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Climate change and Plasmodium vivax Malaria Risk in Brazil: Developing adaptive tool for Brazilian Municipalities"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4359-465X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Tatiane","family":"C. M. Sousa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sandra S.","family":"Hacon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"George U.","family":"Pedra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cassia M. G.","family":"Lemos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria Anice M.","family":"Sallum","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simone","family":"Ladeia-Andrade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fabiane B.","family":"Reis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gustavo","family":"Arcoverde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lincoln","family":"Alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jean","family":"Ometto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]},"reference":[{"issue":"9","key":"pntd.0014298.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3286","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1302089111","article-title":"Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution","volume":"111","author":"C Caminade","year":"2014","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"11","key":"pntd.0014298.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"986","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate3110","article-title":"Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models","volume":"6","author":"EM Fischer","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nature Climate Change"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref003","unstructured":"World Health Organization WHO. World malaria report 2024: addressing inequity in the global malaria response. 2024."},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref004","author":"Ministry of Health (Brazil)","year":"2025"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0014298.ref005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-016-1326-2","article-title":"Declining malaria transmission in rural Amazon: changing epidemiology and challenges to achieve elimination","volume":"15","author":"S Vitor-Silva","year":"2016","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"issue":"3","key":"pntd.0014298.ref006","article-title":"An\u00e1lise do processo de elimina\u00e7\u00e3o da transmiss\u00e3o da mal\u00e1ria na Amaz\u00f4nia brasileira com abordagem espacial da varia\u00e7\u00e3o da incid\u00eancia da doen\u00e7a em 2016","volume":"27","author":"RM Braz","year":"2018","journal-title":"Epidemiol Serv Saude"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0014298.ref007","article-title":"On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis","volume":"21","author":"MJC Ayala","year":"2022","journal-title":"Malar J"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref008","volume-title":"Plasmodium falciparum malaria","author":"L Zekar","year":"2024"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref009","first-page":"54","article-title":"Malaria in the Amazon Basin: how climate change and natural disasters create new challenges for an old disease.","volume-title":"Planetary health approaches to understand and control vector-borne diseases","author":"LSM Chaves","year":"2023","edition":"1"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref010","unstructured":"Ministry of Health. Boletim Epidemiol\u00f3gico. Dia da Malaria nas Americas - um panorama da Malaria no Brasil em 2022 e no primeiro semestre de 2023. 2024."},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref011","article-title":"National climate change adaptation plan (Plano Nacional de Adapta\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 Mudan\u00e7a do Clima)","author":"Ministry of the Environment","year":"2016"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref012","author":"Ministry of Health B","year":"2025"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref013","author":"Ministry of Health B","year":"2025"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref014","author":"WHO","year":"2021"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref015","unstructured":"Ministry of Health. Elimina Mal\u00e1ria Brasil: Plano Nacional de Elimina\u00e7\u00e3o da Mal\u00e1ria. 2022."},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0014298.ref016","article-title":"Is Brazil reaching malaria elimination? A time series analysis of malaria cases from 2011 to 2023","volume":"4","author":"KKS Garcia","year":"2024","journal-title":"PLOS Glob Public Health"},{"issue":"14","key":"pntd.0014298.ref017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7255","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18147255","article-title":"A systematic review of the effects of temperature on Anopheles mosquito development and survival: implications for malaria control in a future warmer climate","volume":"18","author":"TP Agyekum","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0014298.ref018","article-title":"The impact of natural climate variability on the global distribution of Aedes aegypti: a mathematical modelling study","volume":"8","author":"AR Kaye","year":"2024","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"issue":"44","key":"pntd.0014298.ref019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22212","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1905315116","article-title":"Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing","volume":"116","author":"AJ MacDonald","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"7","key":"pntd.0014298.ref020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pgph.0003452","article-title":"Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004\u20132022","volume":"4","author":"NJ Arisco","year":"2024","journal-title":"PLOS Global Public Health"},{"issue":"15","key":"pntd.0014298.ref021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2103700118","article-title":"Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination by age","volume":"118","author":"MC Castro","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0014298.ref022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12992-021-00793-2","article-title":"Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews","volume":"18","author":"MA Kulkarni","year":"2022","journal-title":"Global Health"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref023","article-title":"Climate-sensitive diseases in Brazil and the world: systematic review","volume":"42","author":"TCM Sousa","year":"2018","journal-title":"Revista Panamericana de Salud Publica\/Pan American Journal of Public Health"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref024","author":"U Samarasekera","year":"2023"},{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0014298.ref025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"618","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-0276140228","article-title":"Malaria in Brazil: what happens outside the Amazonian endemic region","volume":"109","author":"A de Pina-Costa","year":"2014","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref026","volume-title":"Climate Change 2022 \u2013 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability","author":"H P\u00f6rtner","year":"2023"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0148-z","article-title":"The representative concentration pathways: an overview","volume":"109","author":"DP van Vuuren","year":"2011","journal-title":"Climatic Change"},{"issue":"11","key":"pntd.0014298.ref028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10203","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-024-07446-1","article-title":"Projected changes in the frequency of compound hot and dry events over Tropical Brazil in CORDEX-CORE simulations","volume":"62","author":"LM Alves","year":"2024","journal-title":"Clim Dyn"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref029","author":"IBGE IB de G e E","year":"2022"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0014298.ref030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"563","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-013-0499-2","article-title":"EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research","volume":"14","author":"D Jacob","year":"2013","journal-title":"Reg Environ Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0014298.ref031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-102014-021217","article-title":"Regional dynamical downscaling and the CORDEX initiative","volume":"40","author":"F Giorgi","year":"2015","journal-title":"Annu Rev Environ Resour"},{"issue":"2","key":"pntd.0014298.ref032","article-title":"A mathematical model for zoonotic transmission of malaria in the Atlantic Forest: Exploring the effects of variations in vector abundance and acrodendrophily","volume":"15","author":"AR Medeiros-Sousa","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref033","first-page":"101189","article-title":"The impact of weather and extreme events on malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon: a case-crossover and population-based study","volume":"49","author":"NJ Arisco","year":"2025","journal-title":"Lancet Reg Health Am"},{"issue":"1","key":"pntd.0014298.ref034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6477","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-85890-3","article-title":"Malaria transmission in landscapes with varying deforestation levels and timelines in the Amazon: a longitudinal spatiotemporal study","volume":"11","author":"GZ Laporta","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"pntd.0014298.ref035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107757","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actatropica.2025.107757","article-title":"Intermediate forest cover and malaria risk in an Amazon deforestation frontier","volume":"269","author":"GZ Laporta","year":"2025","journal-title":"Acta Trop"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014298","type":"new_version","label":"New version","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780012800000}}],"container-title":["PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014298","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T17:50:29Z","timestamp":1780077029000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014298"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Maciej","family":"Grzybek","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014298","relation":{},"ISSN":["1935-2735"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1935-2735","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]}}}