{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T18:14:00Z","timestamp":1788459240353,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788393600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Public Health Talent Training Support Program of the National Administration of Disease Prevention and Control","award":["01063"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["01063"]}]},{"name":"Special Public Health Personnel Training and Professional Technical Capacity Building Program"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosntds.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS Negl Trop Dis"],"abstract":"<jats:sec id=\"sec001\">\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using the 2025 Chikungunya fever (CHIK) outbreak in Chancheng District, Foshan City, this study applied a random forest (RF) regression model combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to explore predictive associations, nonlinear relationships and potential thresholds between environmental\u2013social factors and village\/community-level cumulative incidence, to inform stratified control of mosquito-borne diseases.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec002\">\n                    <jats:title>Methodology\/principal findings<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In this cross-sectional ecological study of 143 villages\/communities, the outcome was cumulative incidence, and nine candidate covariates were assessed, including the hospitalization isolation rate, construction-site density, and population density. Multicollinearity was checked using the variance inflation factor. Model fit was evaluated by the out-of-bag (OOB) R\u00b2, RMSE, and MAE, and variable importance by %IncMSE. Robustness was tested with 100 repeated runs, bootstrap thresholds from SHAP dependence plots, and a sensitivity analysis excluding the endogenous isolation rate. On the log(1\u2009+\u2009incidence) scale, the OOB R\u00b2 was 0.206, with underestimation of high-incidence areas. The hospitalization isolation rate had the highest importance (%IncMSE\u2009=\u200918.43) and was negatively correlated with predictions (\u03c1\u2009= \u22120.749), but this likely reflects reverse causation and is predictive only. Construction-site density was strongly positive (\u03c1\u2009=\u20090.855), with a stable threshold near 12.8 sites\/km\u00b2; it remained the most robust predictor after removing the isolation rate (%IncMSE\u2009=\u20098.54).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec id=\"sec003\">\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions\/significance<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Construction-site density was the most robust environmental predictor, whereas population density contributed little. These exploratory, predictive associations\u2014not causal effects\u2014should guide risk stratification and require prospective validation with time-matched longitudinal data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0014675","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T17:24:30Z","timestamp":1788456270000},"page":"e0014675","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pntd.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predictive association between control measures and chikungunya fever incidence based on random forest and SHAP analysis"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"20","author":[{"given":"Fengling","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jinsen","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Huihui","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine)","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhilin","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Shunyi District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiwen","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kunlu","family":"He","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongjuan","family":"Wen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaohua","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongwei","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chancheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention","place":["Foshan, Guangdong, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-7322-5779","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lang","family":"Lang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Johns Hopkins University","place":["Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1314-1190","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lijie","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine)","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"pntd.0014675.ref001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(07)70107-X","article-title":"Chikungunya, an epidemic arbovirosis","volume":"7","author":"G Pialoux","year":"2007","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"issue":"12","key":"pntd.0014675.ref002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2024-016648","article-title":"The global health and economic burden of chikungunya from 2011 to 2020: a model-driven analysis on the impact of an emerging vector-borne disease","volume":"9","author":"AM de Roo","year":"2024","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"key":"pntd.0014675.ref003","unstructured":"World Health Organization. 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