{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,15]],"date-time":"2026-10-15T21:02:13Z","timestamp":1792098133102,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Public Library of Science (PLoS)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]],"date-time":"2014-06-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1401753600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.plosone.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0098241","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]],"date-time":"2014-06-03T20:27:26Z","timestamp":1401827246000},"page":"e98241","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.corrections_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":60,"title":["Application of a New Hybrid Model with Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Network (NARNN) in Forecasting Incidence Cases of HFMD in Shenzhen, China"],"prefix":"10.1371","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Lijing","family":"Yu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lingling","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hongbo","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ying","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sheng","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shaofa","family":"Nie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"340","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","first-page":"594","article-title":"Hand, foot and mouth disease","volume":"32","author":"A Frydenberg","year":"2003","journal-title":"Aust Fam Physician"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.1.5374.58-a","article-title":"Hand, foot, and mouth disease","volume":"1","author":"SK Clarke","year":"1964","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"ref3","unstructured":"Xu W, Jiang L, Thammawijaya P, Thamthitiwat S (2011) Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Yunnan Province, China, 2008\u20132010. Asia Pac J Public Health: 1-9. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/aph.sagepub.com\/content\/early\/2011\/12\/08\/1010539511430523\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/aph.sagepub.com\/content\/early\/2011\/12\/08\/1010539511430523<\/ext-link>. Accessed 2011 December 23."},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1071","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268809991555","article-title":"Human enterovirus 71 and hand, foot and mouth disease","volume":"138","author":"S Wong","year":"2010","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01314873","article-title":"Virological diagnosis of enterovirus type 71 infections: experiences gained during an epidemic of acute CNS diseases in Hungary in 1978","volume":"71","author":"G Nagy","year":"1982","journal-title":"Arch Virol"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"484","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-198807000-00007","article-title":"Outbreak of enterovirus 71 infection in Victoria, Australia, with a high incidence of neurologic involvement","volume":"7","author":"GL Gilbert","year":"1988","journal-title":"Pediatr Infect Dis J"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"611","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-198909000-00009","article-title":"Outbreak of poliomyelitis-like paralysis associated with enterovirus 71","volume":"8","author":"JC Hayward","year":"1989","journal-title":"Pediatr Infect Dis J"},{"key":"ref8","first-page":"R81","article-title":"Epidemiological, virological, and clinical features of an epidemic of hand, foot, and mouth disease in England and Wales","volume":"6","author":"J Bendig","year":"1996","journal-title":"Commun Dis Rep CDR Rev"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-1702(99)00019-2","article-title":"Identification of enterovirus 71 isolates from an outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) with fatal cases of encephalomyelitis in Malaysia","volume":"61","author":"S AbuBakar","year":"1999","journal-title":"Virus Res"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1301.020112","article-title":"Epidemic hand, foot and mouth disease caused by human enterovirus 71, Singapore","volume":"9","author":"KP Chan","year":"2003","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.1890470209","article-title":"Enterovirus 71 isolated from China is serologically similar to the prototype E71 BrCr strain but differs in the 5\u2032-noncoding region","volume":"47","author":"ZM Zheng","year":"1995","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"ref12","first-page":"011","article-title":"Clinical Analysis of 1026 Cases of Hand-Foot-Mouth Syndrome","volume":"12","author":"L Teheng","year":"1983","journal-title":"Tianjin Med J"},{"key":"ref13","first-page":"036","article-title":"Clinical analysis of 407 cases of the hand-foot-mouth disease","volume":"4","author":"L Huibin","year":"1986","journal-title":"Beijing Med J"},{"key":"ref14","first-page":"019","article-title":"Occurrence of hand foot and moufh disease (HFMD) due to Coxsackie A 16 discovered in Beijing","volume":"4","author":"S Jianchi","year":"1986","journal-title":"Beijing Med J"},{"key":"ref15","first-page":"011","article-title":"An Epidemic of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Tianjin in 1986","volume":"11","author":"Z Zhilun","year":"1987","journal-title":"Tianjin Med J"},{"key":"ref16","first-page":"018","article-title":"The Epidemiology and Some Clinical Features of Hand-Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Guangzhou","volume":"4","author":"CXD Liehua","year":"1990","journal-title":"J Jinan University"},{"key":"ref17","first-page":"004","article-title":"Isolation and identification of viruses causing the hand foot and mouth disease","volume":"5","author":"Z Hongyuan","year":"1985","journal-title":"J Jilin University (Medicine Edition)"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1016\/S1386-6532(00)00068-8","article-title":"An outbreak of enterovirus 71 infection in Taiwan, 1998: epidemiologic and clinical manifestations","volume":"17","author":"C-C Liu","year":"2000","journal-title":"J Clin Virol"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1186\/1743-422X-7-94","article-title":"An emerging recombinant human enterovirus 71 responsible for the 2008 outbreak of hand foot and mouth disease in Fuyang city of China","volume":"7","author":"Y Zhang","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Virol"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1598","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(08)61365-3","article-title":"Emergence and control of infectious diseases in China","volume":"372","author":"L Wang","year":"2008","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref21","unstructured":"Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention website. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/200902\/t20090211_25281.htm\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/200902\/t20090211_25281.htm<\/ext-link>. Accessed 2009 February 11."},{"key":"ref22","unstructured":"Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention website. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201002\/t20100224_25293.htm\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201002\/t20100224_25293.htm<\/ext-link>. Accessed 2010 February 24."},{"key":"ref23","unstructured":"Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention website. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201104\/t20110421_42213.htm\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201104\/t20110421_42213.htm<\/ext-link>. Accessed 2011 April 21."},{"key":"ref24","unstructured":"Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention website. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201202\/t20120216_57473.htm\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201202\/t20120216_57473.htm<\/ext-link>. Accessed 2012 February 16."},{"key":"ref25","unstructured":"Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention website. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" ext-link-type=\"uri\" xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201303\/t20130327_79057.htm\" xlink:type=\"simple\">http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/fdcrbbg\/201303\/t20130327_79057.htm<\/ext-link>. Accessed 2013 March 27."},{"key":"ref26","first-page":"190","article-title":"Time series analysis of human and bovine brucellosis in South Korea from 2005 to 2010","volume":"110","author":"HS Lee","year":"2012","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1016\/S1995-7645(12)60034-0","article-title":"Development of temporal modeling for prediction of dengue infection in Northeastern Thailand","volume":"5","author":"S Wongkoon","year":"2012","journal-title":"Asian Pac J Trop Med"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1809","DOI":"10.1590\/S0102-311X2011000900014","article-title":"Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeir\u00e3o Preto, S\u00e3o Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model","volume":"27","author":"EZ Martinez","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cad Saude Publica"},{"key":"ref29","first-page":"327","article-title":"Use of time-series analysis in infectious disease surveillance","volume":"76","author":"R Allard","year":"1998","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1511","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268807000234","article-title":"Temporal and longitudinal analysis of Danish Swine Salmonellosis Control Programme data: implications for surveillance","volume":"136","author":"J Benschop","year":"2008","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.1016\/S0925-2312(01)00702-0","article-title":"Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model","volume":"50","author":"GP Zhang","year":"2003","journal-title":"Neurocomputing"},{"key":"ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1016\/0893-6080(89)90020-8","article-title":"Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators","volume":"2","author":"K Hornik","year":"1989","journal-title":"Neural networks"},{"key":"ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3579","DOI":"10.3748\/wjg.v10.i24.3579","article-title":"Forecasting model for the incidence of hepatitis A based on artificial","volume":"10","author":"P Guan","year":"2004","journal-title":"World J Gastroenterol"},{"key":"ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken.63.264","article-title":"A hybrid model for short-term bacillary dysentery prediction in Yichang City, China","volume":"63","author":"W Yan","year":"2010","journal-title":"Jpn J Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2005.11.027","article-title":"A hybrid SARIMA and support vector machines in forecasting the production values of the machinery industry in Taiwan","volume":"32","author":"K-Y Chen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Expert Syst Appl"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1467","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aml.2009.02.006","article-title":"Forecasting nonlinear time series with a hybrid methodology","volume":"22","author":"CH Aladag","year":"2009","journal-title":"Appl Math Lett"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2165","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enconman.2010.10.047","article-title":"Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method","volume":"52","author":"M Shafie-Khah","year":"2011","journal-title":"Energ Convers Manage"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Box GE, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC (2013) Time series analysis: forecasting and control: John Wiley &amp; Sons.","DOI":"10.1057\/9781137291264_6"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"240","DOI":"10.1109\/72.279188","article-title":"Recurrent neural networks and robust time series prediction","volume":"5","author":"JT Connor","year":"1994","journal-title":"IEEE T Neural Networ"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Roman J, Jameel A. Backpropagation and recurrent neural networks in financial analysis of multiple stock market returns; 1996. IEEE. 454\u2013460.","DOI":"10.1109\/HICSS.1996.495431"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"134","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-13-134","article-title":"Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China","volume":"13","author":"Y Huang","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1122","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268811001622","article-title":"Epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children in Shanghai 2007\u20132010","volume":"140","author":"M Zeng","year":"2012","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref43","first-page":"349","article-title":"Surveillance of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Mainland China (2008\u20132009)","volume":"24","author":"Q Zhu","year":"2011","journal-title":"Biomed Environ Sci"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1733","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1311.070632","article-title":"Epidemiologic and virologic investigation of hand, foot, and mouth disease, southern Vietnam, 2005","volume":"13","author":"P Van Tu","year":"2007","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e244","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2006-3331","article-title":"Epidemiologic features of hand-foot-mouth disease and herpangina caused by enterovirus 71 in Taiwan, 1998\u20132005","volume":"120","author":"K-T Chen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Pediatrics"},{"key":"ref46","first-page":"214","article-title":"Characterization of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China between 2008 and 2009","volume":"24","author":"J Zhang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Biomed Environ Sci"},{"key":"ref47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken.JJID.2003.48","article-title":"Seasonal models of herpangina and hand-foot-mouth disease to simulate annual fluctuations in urban warming in Tokyo","volume":"56","author":"M Urashima","year":"2003","journal-title":"Jpn J Infect Dis"},{"key":"ref48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2011.09.055","article-title":"The influence of temperature and humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan","volume":"410","author":"D Onozuka","year":"2011","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"ref49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1779","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268810002256","article-title":"Is hand, foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?","volume":"138","author":"E Ma","year":"2010","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"ref50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e16796","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0016796","article-title":"Short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease","volume":"6","author":"YL Hii","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"ref51","first-page":"412","article-title":"The quality assessment of national network reporting system for communicable diseases in 2006","volume":"22","author":"L Wang","year":"2007","journal-title":"Disease Surveillance"}],"container-title":["PLoS ONE"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0098241","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,3]],"date-time":"2025-05-03T06:40:55Z","timestamp":1746254455000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/dx.plos.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0098241"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Lijun","family":"Rong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0098241","relation":{},"ISSN":["1932-6203"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1932-6203","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,3]]}}}